Space-Time Clustering and Correlations of Major Earthquakes

Earthquake occurrence in nature is thought to result from correlated elastic stresses, leading to clustering in space and time. We show that occurrence of major earthquakes in California correlates with time intervals when fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to PR

Co-Seismic Displacements of the 1994 Northridge, California, Earthquake

The 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake significantly deformed the Earth's crust in the epicentral region. Displacements of 66 survey stations determined from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations collected before and after the earthquake show that individual stations were uplifted by up to 417 ± 5 mm and displaced horizontally by up to 216 ± 3 mm. Using these displacements, we estimate parameters of a uniform-slip model. Fault geometry and slip are estimated independent of seismological information, using Monte Carlo optimization techniques that minimize the model residuals. The plane that best fits the geodetic data lies 1 to 2 km above the plane indicated by aftershock seismicity. Modeling for distributed slip on a coplanar, yet larger model fault indicates that a high-slip patch occurred up-dip and northwest of the mainshock hypocenter and that less than 1 m of slip occurred in the uppermost 5 km of the crust. This finding is consistent with the lack of clear surface rupture and with the notion that the intersection with the fault that ruptured in 1971 formed the up-dip terminus of slip in the Northridge earthquake. Displacements predicted by either of these simple models explain most of the variance in the data within 50 km of the epicenter. On average, however, the scatter of the residuals is twice the data uncertainties, and in some areas, there is significant systematic misfit to either model. The co-seismic contributions of aftershocks are insufficient to explain this mismatch, indicating that the source geometry is more complicated than a single rectangular plane

Decision and Discovery in Defining “Disease”

This version (May 17, 2005) was published in its final form as: Schwartz PH. Decision and discovery in defining 'disease'. In: Kincaid H, McKitrick J, editors. Establishing medical reality: essays in the metaphysics and epistemology of biomedical science. Dordrecht: Springer; 2007. p. 47-63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-5216-2_5The debate over how to analyze the concept of disease has often centered on the question of whether to include a reference to values, in particular the ‘disvalue’of diseases, or whether to avoid such notions. ‘Normativists,’such as King ([1954], 1981) and Culver and Gert (1982) emphasize the undesirability of diseases, while ‘Naturalists,’ most prominently Christopher Boorse (1977, 1987, 1997), instead require just the presence of biological dysfunction. The debate between normativism and naturalism often deteriorates into stalemate, with each side able to point out significant problems with the other. It starts to look as if neither approach can work. In this paper, I argue that the standoff stems from deeply questionable assumptions that have been used to formulate the opposing positions and guide the debate. In the end, I propose an alternative set of guidelines that offer a more constructive way to devise and compare theories

Russell-names: an introduction to Millian descriptivism

This essay studies the semantic properties of what I call Russell-names. Russell-names bear intimate semantic relations with descriptive conditions, in consonance with the main tenets of descriptivism. Yet, they are endowed with the semantic properties attributed to ordinary proper names by Millianism: they are rigid and non-indexical devices of direct reference. This is not an essay in natural language semantics, and remains deliberately neutral with respect to the question whether any among the expressions we ordinarily classify as proper names behave as Russell-names. Its aim is rather that of casting a new light on the traditional debate about descriptivism on the one hand, and, on the other, what is commonly understood as a radically anti-descriptivist approach. From the viewpoint of descriptivism, the conceivability of Russell-names provides welcome relief from the pressure exerted by considerations at odds with a flaccid and/or indexical treatment of proper names. Conversely, from a Millian standpoint, the conceivability of Russell-names indicates that the Millian stance, far from providing a meagre picture of names as ‘mere tags’, is at least in principle consistent with the recognition of their semantic bonds with richer descriptive material. The Appendix provides a formal treatment of Russell-names within a model theoretic semantics for indexical intensional languages, developed within an original ‘double-context’ framework

Pulsed Feedback Defers Cellular Differentiation

Environmental signals induce diverse cellular differentiation programs. In certain systems, cells defer differentiation for extended time periods after the signal appears, proliferating through multiple rounds of cell division before committing to a new fate. How can cells set a deferral time much longer than the cell cycle? Here we study Bacillus subtilis cells that respond to sudden nutrient limitation with multiple rounds of growth and division before differentiating into spores. A well-characterized genetic circuit controls the concentration and phosphorylation of the master regulator Spo0A, which rises to a critical concentration to initiate sporulation. However, it remains unclear how this circuit enables cells to defer sporulation for multiple cell cycles. Using quantitative time-lapse fluorescence microscopy of Spo0A dynamics in individual cells, we observed pulses of Spo0A phosphorylation at a characteristic cell cycle phase. Pulse amplitudes grew systematically and cell-autonomously over multiple cell cycles leading up to sporulation. This pulse growth required a key positive feedback loop involving the sporulation kinases, without which the deferral of sporulation became ultrasensitive to kinase expression. Thus, deferral is controlled by a pulsed positive feedback loop in which kinase expression is activated by pulses of Spo0A phosphorylation. This pulsed positive feedback architecture provides a more robust mechanism for setting deferral times than constitutive kinase expression. Finally, using mathematical modeling, we show how pulsing and time delays together enable “polyphasic” positive feedback, in which different parts of a feedback loop are active at different times. Polyphasic feedback can enable more accurate tuning of long deferral times. Together, these results suggest that Bacillus subtilis uses a pulsed positive feedback loop to implement a “timer” that operates over timescales much longer than a cell cycle

Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) survey: The colour evolution of galaxies in the distant Universe

The wavelength-coverage and sensitivity of JWST now enables us to probe the rest-frame UV - optical spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of galaxies at high-redshift ($z>4$). From these SEDs it is, in principle, through SED fitting possible to infer key physical properties, including stellar masses, star formation rates, and dust attenuation. These in turn can be compared with the predictions of galaxy formation simulations allowing us to validate and refine the incorporated physics. However, the inference of physical properties, particularly from photometry alone, can lead to large uncertainties and potential biases. Instead, it is now possible, and common, for simulations to be \emph{forward-modelled} to yield synthetic observations that can be compared directly to real observations. In this work, we measure the JWST broadband fluxes and colours of a robust sample of $5<z<10$ galaxies using the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) Survey. We then analyse predictions from a variety of models using the same methodology and compare the NIRCam/F277W magnitude distribution and NIRCam colours with observations. We find that the predicted and observed magnitude distributions are similar, at least at $58$ the distributions differ somewhat, though our observed sample size is small and thus susceptible to statistical fluctuations. Likewise, the predicted and observed colour evolution show broad agreement, at least at $5<z<8$. There is however some disagreement between the observed and modelled strength of the strong line contribution. In particular all the models fails to reproduce the F410M-F444W colour at $z>8$, though, again, the sample size is small here.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, submitted to MNRA

Form factors in lattice QCD

Lattice simulations of QCD have produced precise estimates for the masses of the lowest-lying hadrons which show excellent agreement with experiment. By contrast, lattice results for the vector and axial vector form factors of the nucleon show significant deviations from their experimental determination. We present results from our ongoing project to compute a variety of form factors with control over all systematic uncertainties. In the case of the pion electromagnetic form factor we employ partially twisted boundary conditions to extract the pion charge radius directly from the linear slope of the form factor near vanishing momentum transfer. In the nucleon sector we focus specifically on the possible contamination from contributions of higher excited states. We argue that summed correlation functions offer the possibility of eliminating this source of systematic error. As an illustration of the method we discuss our results for the axial charge, gA, of the nucleon.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures, presented at Conclusive Symposium, CRC443, "Many-body structure of strongly interacting systems", 23-25 Feb 2011, Mainz, German

Cyclin D1, cyclin E, and p21 have no apparent prognostic value in anal carcinomas treated by radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy

The purpose of this study was to assess the potential prognostic and/or predictive value of the expression of cyclin D1, cyclin E, and p21 protein in a series of 98 anal carcinomas (T1-4, N0-3) treated by radiotherapy with (51) or without (47) chemotherapy in one institution. Correlation with Mib1 index and p53 expression was also investigated. Median follow-up for surviving patients was 124 months (range: 30-266). Immunohistochemical staining was performed on pretreatment biopsies, applying a standard ABC technique for cyclin D1 (clone DSC6, DAKO, 1 : 300), cyclin E (clone 13A3, Novocastra, 1 : 100), p21(WAF/CIP1) (clone SX118, DAKO, 1 : 50), p53 (clone DO7, DAKO, 1 : 200), and Mib1 (Ki-67, Dianova, 1 : 20). Tumours were classified into low- or high-expression groups according to the expression level of the protein considered. High expression was found in 51% of tumours for cyclin E, in 33.7% for cyclin D1, and in 65% for p21. None of those factors were significantly associated with clinical variables such as advanced T or N categories. In a monovariate analysis, advanced T and N categories and longer overall treatment time were the only variables that correlated significantly with low rate of local control (LC) and disease-free survival. However, in a subgroup analysis, high p21 expression correlated with a trend for significantly higher 5-year LC (87 vs 68%, P=0.07) in the N0 patients. The results of this study suggest that the cell-cycle proteins investigated are unlikely to be clinically useful in predicting treatment response or prognosis in patients with anal carcinomas

The effects of emotional states and traits on time perception

Background: Models of time perception share an element of scalar expectancy theory known as the internal clock, containing specific mechanisms by which the brain is able to experience time passing and function effectively. A debate exists about whether to treat factors that influence these internal clock mechanisms (e.g., emotion, personal- ity, executive functions, and related neurophysiological components) as arousal- or attentional-based factors. Purpose: This study investigated behavioral and neurophysiological responses to an affective time perception Go/ NoGo task, taking into account the behavioral inhibition (BIS) and behavioral activation systems (BASs), which are components of reinforcement sensitivity theory. Methods: After completion of self-report inventories assessing personality traits, electroencephalogram (EEG/ERP) and behavioral recordings of 32 women and 13 men recruited from introductory psychology classes were completed during an affective time perception Go/NoGo task. This task required participants to respond (Go) and inhibit (NoGo) to positive and negative affective visual stimuli of various durations in comparison to a standard duration. Results: Higher BAS scores (especially BAS Drive) were associated with overestimation bias scores for positive stimuli, while BIS scores were not correlated with overestimation bias scores. Furthermore, higher BIS Total scores were associ- ated with higher N2d amplitudes during positive stimulus presentation for 280 ms, while higher BAS Total scores were associated with higher N2d amplitudes during negative stimuli presentation for 910 ms. Discussion: Findings are discussed in terms of arousal-based models of time perception, and suggestions for future research are considered

Clinicogenomic factors of biotherapy immunogenicity in autoimmune disease: A prospective multicohort study of the ABIRISK consortium

BACKGROUND: Biopharmaceutical products (BPs) are widely used to treat autoimmune diseases, but immunogenicity limits their efficacy for an important proportion of patients. Our knowledge of patient-related factors influencing the occurrence of antidrug antibodies (ADAs) is still limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The European consortium ABIRISK (Anti-Biopharmaceutical Immunization: prediction and analysis of clinical relevance to minimize the RISK) conducted a clinical and genomic multicohort prospective study of 560 patients with multiple sclerosis (MS, n = 147), rheumatoid arthritis (RA, n = 229), Crohn's disease (n = 148), or ulcerative colitis (n = 36) treated with 8 different biopharmaceuticals (etanercept, n = 84; infliximab, n = 101; adalimumab, n = 153; interferon [IFN]-beta-1a intramuscularly [IM], n = 38; IFN-beta-1a subcutaneously [SC], n = 68; IFN-beta-1b SC, n = 41; rituximab, n = 31; tocilizumab, n = 44) and followed during the first 12 months of therapy for time to ADA development. From the bioclinical data collected, we explored the relationships between patient-related factors and the occurrence of ADAs. Both baseline and time-dependent factors such as concomitant medications were analyzed using Cox proportional hazard regression models. Mean age and disease duration were 35.1 and 0.85 years, respectively, for MS; 54.2 and 3.17 years for RA; and 36.9 and 3.69 years for inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs). In a multivariate Cox regression model including each of the clinical and genetic factors mentioned hereafter, among the clinical factors, immunosuppressants (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.408 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.253-0.657], p < 0.001) and antibiotics (aHR = 0.121 [0.0437-0.333], p < 0.0001) were independently negatively associated with time to ADA development, whereas infections during the study (aHR = 2.757 [1.616-4.704], p < 0.001) and tobacco smoking (aHR = 2.150 [1.319-3.503], p < 0.01) were positively associated. 351,824 Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) and 38 imputed Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) alleles were analyzed through a genome-wide association study. We found that the HLA-DQA1*05 allele significantly increased the rate of immunogenicity (aHR = 3.9 [1.923-5.976], p < 0.0001 for the homozygotes). Among the 6 genetic variants selected at a 20% false discovery rate (FDR) threshold, the minor allele of rs10508884, which is situated in an intron of the CXCL12 gene, increased the rate of immunogenicity (aHR = 3.804 [2.139-6.764], p < 1 × 10-5 for patients homozygous for the minor allele) and was chosen for validation through a CXCL12 protein enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) on patient serum at baseline before therapy start. CXCL12 protein levels were higher for patients homozygous for the minor allele carrying higher ADA risk (mean: 2,693 pg/ml) than for the other genotypes (mean: 2,317 pg/ml; p = 0.014), and patients with CXCL12 levels above the median in serum were more prone to develop ADAs (aHR = 2.329 [1.106-4.90], p = 0.026). A limitation of the study is the lack of replication; therefore, other studies are required to confirm our findings. CONCLUSION: In our study, we found that immunosuppressants and antibiotics were associated with decreased risk of ADA development, whereas tobacco smoking and infections during the study were associated with increased risk. We found that the HLA-DQA1*05 allele was associated with an increased rate of immunogenicity. Moreover, our results suggest a relationship between CXCL12 production and ADA development independent of the disease, which is consistent with its known function in affinity maturation of antibodies and plasma cell survival. Our findings may help physicians in the management of patients receiving biotherapies