1855 and 1991 Surveys of the San Andreas Fault: Implications for Fault Mechanics

Two monuments from an 1855 cadastral survey that span the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain have been right-laterally displaced 11.0 ± 2.5 m by the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake and associated seismicity and afterslip. This measurement confirms that at least 9.5 ± 0.5 m of slip occurred along the main fault trace, as suggested by measurements of offset channels near Wallace Creek. The slip varied by 2 to 3 m along a 2.6-km section of the main fault trace. Using radiocarbon dates of the penultimate large earthquake and measurements of slip from the 1857 earthquake, we calculate an apparent slip rate for the last complete earthquake cycle that is at least 25% lower than the late-Holocene slip rate on the main fault trace. Comparison of short-term broad-aperture strain accumulation rates with the narrow-aperture late-Holocene slip rate indicates that the fault behaves nearly elastically over a time scale of several earthquake cycles. Therefore, slip in future earthquakes should compensate the slip-rate deficit from the 1857 earthquake

Gazing at the Solar System: Capturing the Evolution of Dunes, Faults, Volcanoes, and Ice from Space

Gazing imaging holds promise for improved understanding of surface characteristics and processes of Earth and solar system bodies. Evolution of earthquake fault zones, migration of sand dunes, and retreat of ice masses can be understood by observing changing features over time. To gaze or stare means to look steadily, intently, and with fixed attention, offering the ability to probe the characteristics of a target deeply, allowing retrieval of 3D structure and changes on fine and coarse scales. Observing surface reflectance and 3D structure from multiple perspectives allows for a more complete view of a surface than conventional remote imaging. A gaze from low Earth orbit (LEO) could last several minutes allowing for video capture of dynamic processes. Repeat passes enable monitoring time scales of days to years. Numerous vantage points are available during a gaze (Figure 1). Features in the scene are projected into each image frame enabling the recovery of dense 3D structure. The recovery is robust to errors in the spacecraft position and attitude knowledge, because features are from different perspectives. The combination of a varying look angle and the solar illumination allows recovering texture and reflectance properties and permits the separation of atmospheric effects. Applications are numerous and diverse, including, for example, glacier and ice sheet flux, sand dune migration, geohazards from earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, rivers and floods, animal migrations, ecosystem changes, geysers on Enceladus, or ice structure on Europa. The Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) hosted a workshop in June of 2014 to explore opportunities and challenges of gazing imaging. The goals of the workshop were to develop and discuss the broad scientific questions that can be addressed using spaceborne gazing, specific types of targets and applications, the resolution and spectral bands needed to achieve the science objectives, and possible instrument configurations for future missions. The workshop participants found that gazing imaging offers the ability to measure morphology, composition, and reflectance simultaneously and to measure their variability over time. Gazing imaging can be applied to better understand the consequences of climate change and natural hazards processes, through the study of continuous and episodic processes in both domains

Using Geologic and Geodetic Analyses to Define the Location, Slip Rate, and Geometry of Off Fault Deformation, Hidden Spring Fault Zone, Southern California

A strain deficit of about 10 mm/yr exists across the San Andreas Fault system on the boundary between the North American and Pacific plates. We investigate the role of the Hidden Spring Fault Zone, east of the Salton Sea in Southern California, and related structures in accommodating some of this slip. We compile data from historic and current aerial and satellite imagery, coupled with UAVSAR and LiDAR data have allowed us to identify and map hundreds of new fault segments in the region. Where possible, we correlate some of these data with geologic evidence for the faults. These data emphasize the orientations and potential fault linkages that are vital for a kinematic analysis of the Hidden Spring Fault Zone and in creating a baseline analysis of deformation in a region where large seismic ruptures are likely to occur

Global Seismic Nowcasting With Shannon Information Entropy.

Seismic nowcasting uses counts of small earthquakes as proxy data to estimate the current dynamical state of an earthquake fault system. The result is an earthquake potential score that characterizes the current state of progress of a defined geographic region through its nominal earthquake "cycle." The count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake is the natural time that has elapsed since the last large earthquake (Varotsos et al., 2006, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.74.021123). In addition to natural time, earthquake sequences can also be analyzed using Shannon information entropy ("information"), an idea that was pioneered by Shannon (1948, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x). As a first step to add seismic information entropy into the nowcasting method, we incorporate magnitude information into the natural time counts by using event self-information. We find in this first application of seismic information entropy that the earthquake potential score values are similar to the values using only natural time. However, other characteristics of earthquake sequences, including the interevent time intervals, or the departure of higher magnitude events from the magnitude-frequency scaling line, may contain additional information

Determination of convergence rates across the Ventura Basin, Southern California, using GPS and historical triangulation

Comparison of angles from historical triangulation observations dating as far back as 1932 with Global Positions System (GPS) measurements taken in 1987 indicates that rapid convergence may be taking place on decade timescales in the central and eastern part of the Ventura basin, an east-west trending trough bounded by thrust faults. Changes in angles over this time were analyzed using Prescott's modified Frank's method and in terms of a model which assumes that the regions to the north and south of the basin are rigid blocks undergoing relative motion. For the two block model, inversion of the observed angle changes over the last 28 years for the relative motion vector leads to north-south convergence across the basin of 30 + or - 5 mm/yr, with a left lateral component of 10 + or - 1 mm/yr in the Fillmore-Santa Paula area in the central part of the basin. The modified Frank's method yields strain rates of approximately 2 microrad/yr in both the east and central parts of the basin for measurements spanning the 1971 San Fernando earthquake. Assuming no east-west strain yeilds north-south compression of approximately 3.5 + or - .2 cm/yr. Comparison of triangulation data prior to the earthquake shows no strain outside the margin of error. The convergence rates determined by geodetic techniques are consistent with geologic observations in the area. Such large geodetic deformation rates, with no apparent near-surface creep on the major thrust, can be understood if these faults become subhorizontal at relatively shallow depths and if the subhorizontal portions of the faults are creeping. An alternative explanation of the large displacement rates might be that the pumping of oil in the vicinity of the benchmarks caused large horizontal motions, although it is unlikely that meter scale horizontal motions are due to oil withdrawal. These and other hypotheses are evaluated to better constrain the tectonics of this active region

Computing Fault Displacements from Surface Deformations

Simplex is a computer program that calculates locations and displacements of subterranean faults from data on Earth-surface deformations. The calculation involves inversion of a forward model (given a point source representing a fault, a forward model calculates the surface deformations) for displacements, and strains caused by a fault located in isotropic, elastic half-space. The inversion involves the use of nonlinear, multiparameter estimation techniques. The input surface-deformation data can be in multiple formats, with absolute or differential positioning. The input data can be derived from multiple sources, including interferometric synthetic-aperture radar, the Global Positioning System, and strain meters. Parameters can be constrained or free. Estimates can be calculated for single or multiple faults. Estimates of parameters are accompanied by reports of their covariances and uncertainties. Simplex has been tested extensively against forward models and against other means of inverting geodetic data and seismic observations. This wor

Gutenberg-Richter statistics in topologically realistic system-level earthquake stress-evolution simulations

We discuss the problem of earthquake forecasting in the context of new models for the dynamics based on statistical physics. Here we focus on new, topologically realistic system-level approaches to the modeling of earthquake faults. We show that the frictional failure physics of earthquakes in these complex, topologically realistic models leads to self-organization of the statistical dynamics, and produces statistical distributions characterizing the activity, notably the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency distribution, that are similar to those observed in nature. In particular, we show that a parameterization of friction that includes a simple representation of a dynamic stress intensity factor is needed to organize the dynamics. We also show that the slip distributions for synthetic events obtained in the model are also similar to those observed in nature

Simplex GPS and InSAR Inversion Software

Changes in the shape of the Earth's surface can be routinely measured with precisions better than centimeters. Processes below the surface often drive these changes and as a result, investigators require models with inversion methods to characterize the sources. Simplex inverts any combination of GPS (global positioning system), UAVSAR (uninhabited aerial vehicle synthetic aperture radar), and InSAR (interferometric synthetic aperture radar) data simultaneously for elastic response from fault and fluid motions. It can be used to solve for multiple faults and parameters, all of which can be specified or allowed to vary. The software can be used to study long-term tectonic motions and the faults responsible for those motions, or can be used to invert for co-seismic slip from earthquakes. Solutions involving estimation of fault motion and changes in fluid reservoirs such as magma or water are possible. Any arbitrary number of faults or parameters can be considered. Simplex specifically solves for any of location, geometry, fault slip, and expansion/contraction of a single or multiple faults. It inverts GPS and InSAR data for elastic dislocations in a half-space. Slip parameters include strike slip, dip slip, and tensile dislocations. It includes a map interface for both setting up the models and viewing the results. Results, including faults, and observed, computed, and residual displacements, are output in text format, a map interface, and can be exported to KML. The software interfaces with the QuakeTables database allowing a user to select existing fault parameters or data. Simplex can be accessed through the QuakeSim portal graphical user interface or run from a UNIX command line

Gazing at the Solar System: Capturing the Evolution of Dunes, Faults, Volcanoes, and Ice from Space

Gazing imaging holds promise for improved understanding of surface characteristics and processes of Earth and solar system bodies. Evolution of earthquake fault zones, migration of sand dunes, and retreat of ice masses can be understood by observing changing features over time. To gaze or stare means to look steadily, intently, and with fixed attention, offering the ability to probe the characteristics of a target deeply, allowing retrieval of 3D structure and changes on fine and coarse scales. Observing surface reflectance and 3D structure from multiple perspectives allows for a more complete view of a surface than conventional remote imaging. A gaze from low Earth orbit (LEO) could last several minutes allowing for video capture of dynamic processes. Repeat passes enable monitoring time scales of days to years. Numerous vantage points are available during a gaze (Figure 1). Features in the scene are projected into each image frame enabling the recovery of dense 3D structure. The recovery is robust to errors in the spacecraft position and attitude knowledge, because features are from different perspectives. The combination of a varying look angle and the solar illumination allows recovering texture and reflectance properties and permits the separation of atmospheric effects. Applications are numerous and diverse, including, for example, glacier and ice sheet flux, sand dune migration, geohazards from earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, rivers and floods, animal migrations, ecosystem changes, geysers on Enceladus, or ice structure on Europa. The Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) hosted a workshop in June of 2014 to explore opportunities and challenges of gazing imaging. The goals of the workshop were to develop and discuss the broad scientific questions that can be addressed using spaceborne gazing, specific types of targets and applications, the resolution and spectral bands needed to achieve the science objectives, and possible instrument configurations for future missions. The workshop participants found that gazing imaging offers the ability to measure morphology, composition, and reflectance simultaneously and to measure their variability over time. Gazing imaging can be applied to better understand the consequences of climate change and natural hazards processes, through the study of continuous and episodic processes in both domains