Neuronal Distortions of Reward Probability without Choice

Reward probability crucially determines the value of outcomes. A basic phenomenon, defying explanation by traditional decision theories, is that people often overweigh small and underweigh large probabilities in choices under uncertainty. However, the neuronal basis of such reward probability distortions and their position in the decision process are largely unknown. We assessed individual probability distortions with behavioral pleasantness ratings and brain imaging in the absence of choice. Dorsolateral frontal cortex regions showed experience dependent overweighting of small, and underweighting of large, probabilities whereas ventral frontal regions showed the opposite pattern. These results demonstrate distorted neuronal coding of reward probabilities in the absence of choice, stress the importance of experience with probabilistic outcomes and contrast with linear probability coding in the striatum. Input of the distorted probability estimations to decision-making mechanisms are likely to contribute to well known inconsistencies in preferences formalized in theories of behavioral economics

Synthesis, antibacterial and anti-MRSA activity, in vivo toxicity and a structure-activity relationship study of a quinoline thiourea

We report the synthesis, antibacterial evaluation of a series of thiourea-containing compounds. 1-(3,5-Bis(trifluoromethyl)phenyl)-3-((S)-(6-methoxyquinolin-4-yl)-((1S,2S,4S,5R)-5-vinylquinuclidin-2-yl)methyl)thiourea 5, was the most active against a range of Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria, and exhibited bacteriostatic activity against methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) comparable to that of the well-known antibacterial agent vancomycin. Quinoline thiourea 5 was subjected to a detailed structure–activity relationship study, with 5 and its derivatives evaluated for their bacteriostatic activity against both Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria. A number of structural features important for the overall activity of quinoline thiourea 5 have been identified. A selection of compounds, including 5, was also evaluated for their in vivo toxicity using the larvae of the Greater wax moth, Galleria mellonella. Compound 5, and a number of derivatives, were found to be non-toxic to the larvae of Galleria mellonella. A new class of antibiotic can result from the further development of this family of compounds

Temperature phase transition and an effective expansion parameter in the O(N)-model

The temperature phase transition in the N-component scalar field theory with spontaneous symmetry breaking is investigated in the perturbative approach. The second Legendre transform is used together with the consideration of the gap equations in the extrema of the free energy. Resummations are performed on the super daisy level and beyond. The phase transition turns out to be weakly of first order. The diagrams beyond the super daisy ones which are calculated correspond to next-to-next-to-leading order in 1/N. It is shown that these diagrams do not alter the phase transition qualitatively. In the limit N goes to infinity the phase transition becomes second order. A comparison with other approaches is done.Comment: 28 pages, 5 figures, corrected for some misprints, unnecessary section remove

A pilot Internet "Value of Health" Panel: recruitment, participation and compliance

Objectives To pilot using a panel of members of the public to provide preference data via the Internet Methods A stratified random sample of members of the general public was recruited and familiarised with the standard gamble procedure using an Internet based tool. Health states were perdiodically presented in "sets" corresponding to different conditions, during the study. The following were described: Recruitment (proportion of people approached who were trained); Participation (a) the proportion of people trained who provided any preferences and (b) the proportion of panel members who contributed to each "set" of values; and Compliance (the proportion, per participant, of preference tasks which were completed). The influence of covariates on these outcomes was investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results A panel of 112 people was recruited. 23% of those approached (n = 5,320) responded to the invitation, and 24% of respondents (n = 1,215) were willing to participate (net = 5.5%). However, eventual recruitment rates, following training, were low (2.1% of those approached). Recruitment from areas of high socioeconomic deprivation and among ethnic minority communities was low. Eighteen sets of health state descriptions were considered over 14 months. 74% of panel members carried out at least one valuation task. People from areas of higher socioeconomic deprivation and unmarried people were less likely to participate. An average of 41% of panel members expressed preferences on each set of descriptions. Compliance ranged from 3% to 100%. Conclusion It is feasible to establish a panel of members of the general public to express preferences on a wide range of health state descriptions using the Internet, although differential recruitment and attrition are important challenges. Particular attention to recruitment and retention in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation and among ethnic minority communities is necessary. Nevertheless, the panel approach to preference measurement using the Internet offers the potential to provide specific utility data in a responsive manner for use in economic evaluations and to address some of the outstanding methodological uncertainties in this field

Polymorphisms of the Flavin containing monooxygenase 3 (FMO3) gene do not predispose to essential hypertension in Caucasians.

BACKGROUND: The recessive disorder trimethylaminuria is caused by defects in the FMO3 gene, and may be associated with hypertension. We investigated whether common polymorphisms of the FMO3 gene confer an increased risk for elevated blood pressure and/or essential hypertension. METHODS: FMO3 genotypes (E158K, V257M, E308G) were determined in 387 healthy subjects with ambulatory systolic and diastolic blood pressure measurements, and in a cardiovascular disease population of 1649 individuals, 691(41.9%) of whom had a history of hypertension requiring drug treatment. Haplotypes were determined and their distribution noted. RESULTS: There was no statistically significant association found between any of the 4 common haplotypes and daytime systolic blood pressure in the healthy population (p = 0.65). Neither was a statistically significant association found between the 4 common haplotypes and hypertension status among the cardiovascular disease patients (p = 0.80). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that the variants in the FMO3 gene do not predispose to essential hypertension in this population

Can Sigma Models Describe Finite Temperature Chiral Transitions?

Large-N expansions and computer simulations indicate that the universality class of the finite temperature chiral symmetry restoration transition in the 3D Gross-Neveu model is mean field theory. This is a counterexample to the standard 'sigma model' scenario which predicts the 2D Ising model universality class. We trace the breakdown of the standard scenario (dimensional reduction and universality) to the absence of canonical scalar fields in the model. We point out that our results could be generic for theories with dynamical symmetry breaking, such as Quantum Chromodynamics.Comment: 9 pages, 2 ps figure

Final report for the Multiprotocol Label Switching (MPLS) control plane security LDRD project.

As rapid Internet growth continues, global communications becomes more dependent on Internet availability for information transfer. Recently, the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) introduced a new protocol, Multiple Protocol Label Switching (MPLS), to provide high-performance data flows within the Internet. MPLS emulates two major aspects of the Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) technology. First, each initial IP packet is 'routed' to its destination based on previously known delay and congestion avoidance mechanisms. This allows for effective distribution of network resources and reduces the probability of congestion. Second, after route selection each subsequent packet is assigned a label at each hop, which determines the output port for the packet to reach its final destination. These labels guide the forwarding of each packet at routing nodes more efficiently and with more control than traditional IP forwarding (based on complete address information in each packet) for high-performance data flows. Label assignment is critical in the prompt and accurate delivery of user data. However, the protocols for label distribution were not adequately secured. Thus, if an adversary compromises a node by intercepting and modifying, or more simply injecting false labels into the packet-forwarding engine, the propagation of improperly labeled data flows could create instability in the entire network. In addition, some Virtual Private Network (VPN) solutions take advantage of this 'virtual channel' configuration to eliminate the need for user data encryption to provide privacy. VPN's relying on MPLS require accurate label assignment to maintain user data protection. This research developed a working distributive trust model that demonstrated how to deploy confidentiality, authentication, and non-repudiation in the global network label switching control plane. Simulation models and laboratory testbed implementations that demonstrated this concept were developed, and results from this research were transferred to industry via standards in the Optical Internetworking Forum (OIF)

The social value of a QALY : raising the bar or barring the raise?

Background: Since the inception of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) in England, there have been questions about the empirical basis for the cost-per-QALY threshold used by NICE and whether QALYs gained by different beneficiaries of health care should be weighted equally. The Social Value of a QALY (SVQ) project, reported in this paper, was commissioned to address these two questions. The results of SVQ were released during a time of considerable debate about the NICE threshold, and authors with differing perspectives have drawn on the SVQ results to support their cases. As these discussions continue, and given the selective use of results by those involved, it is important, therefore, not only to present a summary overview of SVQ, but also for those who conducted the research to contribute to the debate as to its implications for NICE. Discussion: The issue of the threshold was addressed in two ways: first, by combining, via a set of models, the current UK Value of a Prevented Fatality (used in transport policy) with data on fatality age, life expectancy and age-related quality of life; and, second, via a survey designed to test the feasibility of combining respondents’ answers to willingness to pay and health state utility questions to arrive at values of a QALY. Modelling resulted in values of £10,000-£70,000 per QALY. Via survey research, most methods of aggregating the data resulted in values of a QALY of £18,000-£40,000, although others resulted in implausibly high values. An additional survey, addressing the issue of weighting QALYs, used two methods, one indicating that QALYs should not be weighted and the other that greater weight could be given to QALYs gained by some groups. Summary: Although we conducted only a feasibility study and a modelling exercise, neither present compelling evidence for moving the NICE threshold up or down. Some preliminary evidence would indicate it could be moved up for some types of QALY and down for others. While many members of the public appear to be open to the possibility of using somewhat different QALY weights for different groups of beneficiaries, we do not yet have any secure evidence base for introducing such a system

Impact of discussion on preferences elicited in a group setting

BACKGROUND: The completeness of preferences is assumed as one of the axioms of expected utility theory but has been subject to little empirical study. METHODS: Fifteen non-health professionals was recruited and familiarised with the standard gamble technique. The group then met five times over six months and preferences were elicited independently on 41 scenarios. After individual valuation, the group discussed the scenarios, following which preferences could be changed. Changes made were described and summary measures (mean and median) before and after discussion compared using paired t test and Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. Semi-structured telephone interviews were carried out to explore attitudes to discussing preferences. These were transcribed, read by two investigators and emergent themes described. RESULTS: Sixteen changes (3.6%) were made to preferences by seven (47%) of the fifteen members. The difference between individual preference values before and after discussion ranged from -0.025 to 0.45. The average effect on the group mean was 0.0053. No differences before and after discussion were statistically significant. The group valued discussion highly and suggested it brought four main benefits: reassurance; improved procedural performance; increased group cohesion; satisfying curiosity. CONCLUSION: The hypothesis that preferences are incomplete cannot be rejected for a proportion of respondents. However, brief discussion did not result in substantial number of changes to preferences and these did not have significant impact on summary values for the group, suggesting that incompleteness, if present, may not have an important effect on cost-utility analyses