Introduction to special section: Active Fault-Related Folding: Structural Evolution, Geomorphologic Expression, Paleoseismology, and Seismic Hazards

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Statistical String Theory for Courts: If the Data Don\u27t Fit . . . .

The primary purpose of this article is to provide courts with an important new tool for applying the correct probability distribution to a given legal question. In areas as diverse as criminal prosecutions and civil lawsuits alleging securities fraud, courts must assess the relevance and reliability of statistical data and the inferences drawn therefrom. But, courts and ex-pert witnesses often make mistaken assumptions about what probability distributions are appropriate for their analyses. Using the wrong probability distribution can lead to invalid factual conclusions and unjustified legal outcomes. To deal with this problem, we propose the use of a unifying statistical string theory - the g-and-h distribution - in legal settings. This parent distribution subsumes many other distributions and spans the widest range of possible skewness-kurtosis combinations. The capacity of the g-and-h distribution to accommodate such a wide variety of data can alleviate judicial fact finders of the difficult task of trying to correctly select among competing distributions. Finally, we report the successful use of this statistical tool in a trial setting for financial data analysis - showing that it can produce more accurate inferences, than those drawn from alternative distributions, and these differences can be judicially decisive

Quantifying near-field and off-fault deformation patterns of the 1992 M_w 7.3 Landers earthquake

Coseismic surface deformation in large earthquakes is typically measured using field mapping and with a range of geodetic methods (e.g., InSAR, lidar differencing, and GPS). Current methods, however, either fail to capture patterns of near-field coseismic surface deformation or lack preevent data. Consequently, the characteristics of off-fault deformation and the parameters that control it remain poorly understood. We develop a standardized method to fully measure the surface, near-field, coseismic deformation patterns at high resolution using the COSI-Corr program by correlating pairs of aerial photographs taken before and after the 1992 M_w 7.3 Landers earthquake. COSI-Corr offers the advantage of measuring displacement across the entire zone of surface deformation and over a wider aperture than that available to field geologists. For the Landers earthquake, our measured displacements are systematically larger than the field measurements, indicating the presence of off-fault deformation. We show that 46% of the total surface displacement occurred as off-fault deformation, over a mean deformation width of 154 m. The magnitude and width of off-fault deformation along the rupture is primarily controlled by the macroscopic structural complexity of the fault system, with a weak correlation with the type of near-surface materials through which the rupture propagated. Both the magnitude and width of distributed deformation are largest in stepovers, bends, and at the southern termination of the surface rupture. We find that slip along the surface rupture exhibits a consistent degree of variability at all observable length scales and that the slip distribution is self-affine fractal with dimension of 1.56

Refining the shallow slip deficit

Geodetic slip inversions for three major (M_w > 7) strike-slip earthquakes (1992 Landers, 1999 Hector Mine and 2010 El Mayor–Cucapah) show a 15–60 per cent reduction in slip near the surface (depth < 2 km) relative to the slip at deeper depths (4–6 km). This significant difference between surface coseismic slip and slip at depth has been termed the shallow slip deficit (SSD). The large magnitude of this deficit has been an enigma since it cannot be explained by shallow creep during the interseismic period or by triggered slip from nearby earthquakes. One potential explanation for the SSD is that the previous geodetic inversions lack data coverage close to surface rupture such that the shallow portions of the slip models are poorly resolved and generally underestimated. In this study, we improve the static coseismic slip inversion for these three earthquakes, especially at shallow depths, by: (1) including data capturing the near-fault deformation from optical imagery and SAR azimuth offsets; (2) refining the interferometric synthetic aperture radar processing with non-boxcar phase filtering, model-dependent range corrections, more complete phase unwrapping by SNAPHU (Statistical Non-linear Approach for Phase Unwrapping) assuming a maximum discontinuity and an on-fault correlation mask; (3) using more detailed, geologically constrained fault geometries and (4) incorporating additional campaign global positioning system (GPS) data. The refined slip models result in much smaller SSDs of 3–19 per cent. We suspect that the remaining minor SSD for these earthquakes likely reflects a combination of our elastic model's inability to fully account for near-surface deformation, which will render our estimates of shallow slip minima, and potentially small amounts of interseismic fault creep or triggered slip, which could ‘make up’ a small percentages of the coseismic SSD during the interseismic period. Our results indicate that it is imperative that slip inversions include accurate measurements of near-fault surface deformation to reliably constrain spatial patterns of slip during major strike-slip earthquakes

Elemental abundances of low-mass stars in the young clusters 25 Ori and lambda Ori

Aims. We aim to derive the chemical pattern of the young clusters 25 Orionis and lambda Orionis through homogeneous and accurate measurements of elemental abundances. Methods. We present FLAMES/UVES observations of a sample of 14 K-type targets in the 25 Ori and lambda Ori clusters; we measure their radial velocities, in order to confirm cluster membership. We derive stellar parameters and abundances of Fe, Na, Al, Si, Ca, Ti, and Ni using the code MOOG. Results. All the 25 Ori stars are confirmed cluster members without evidence of binarity; in lambda Ori we identify one non-member and one candidate single-lined binary star. We find an average metallicity [Fe/H]=-0.05+/-0.05 for 25 Ori, where the error is the 1sigma standard deviation from the average. lambda Ori members have a mean iron abundance value of 0.01+/-0.01. The other elements show close-to-solar ratios and no star-to-star dispersion. Conclusions. Our results, along with previous metallicity determinations in the Orion complex, evidence a small but detectable dispersion in the [Fe/H] distribution of the complex. This appears to be compatible with large-scale star formation episodes and initial non-uniformity in the pre-cloud medium. We show that, as expected, the abundance distribution of star forming regions is consistent with the chemical pattern of the Galactic thin disk.Comment: Accepted by Astronomy and Astrophysics. 14 pages, 10 figures, 7 table

"Contemplating the next maneuver": functional neuroimaging reveals intraoperative decision-making strategies

OBJECTIVE: To investigate differences in the quality, confidence, and consistency of intraoperative surgical decision making (DM) and using functional neuroimaging expose decision systems that operators use. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Novices are hypothesized to use conscious analysis (effortful DM) leading to activation across the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, whereas experts are expected to use unconscious automation (habitual DM) in which decisions are recognition-primed and prefrontal cortex independent. METHODS: A total of 22 subjects (10 medical student novices, 7 residents, and 5 attendings) reviewed simulated laparoscopic cholecystectomy videos, determined the next safest operative maneuver upon video termination (10 s), and reported decision confidence. Video paradigms either declared ("primed") or withheld ("unprimed") the next operative maneuver. Simultaneously, changes in cortical oxygenated hemoglobin and deoxygenated hemoglobin inferring prefrontal activation were recorded using Optical Topography. Decision confidence, consistency (primed vs unprimed), and quality (script concordance) were assessed. RESULTS: Attendings and residents were significantly more certain (P < 0.001), and decision quality was superior (script concordance: attendings = 90%, residents = 78.3%, and novices = 53.3%). Decision consistency was significantly superior in experts (P < 0.001) and residents (P < 0.05) than novices (P = 0.183). During unprimed DM, novices showed significant activation of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, whereas this activation pattern was not observed among residents and attendings. During primed DM, significant activation was not observed in any group. CONCLUSIONS: Expert DM is characterized by improved quality, consistency, and confidence. The findings imply attendings use a habitual decision system, whereas novices use an effortful approach under uncertainty. In the presence of operative cues (primes), novices disengage the prefrontal cortex and seem to accept the observed operative decision as correct

Yangian symmetry of scattering amplitudes in N=4 super Yang-Mills theory

Tree-level scattering amplitudes in N=4 super Yang-Mills theory have recently been shown to transform covariantly with respect to a 'dual' superconformal symmetry algebra, thus extending the conventional superconformal symmetry algebra psu(2,2|4) of the theory. In this paper we derive the action of the dual superconformal generators in on-shell superspace and extend the dual generators suitably to leave scattering amplitudes invariant. We then study the algebra of standard and dual symmetry generators and show that the inclusion of the dual superconformal generators lifts the psu(2,2|4) symmetry algebra to a Yangian. The non-local Yangian generators acting on amplitudes turn out to be cyclically invariant due to special properties of psu(2,2|4). The representation of the Yangian generators takes the same form as in the case of local operators, suggesting that the Yangian symmetry is an intrinsic property of planar N=4 super Yang-Mills, at least at tree level.Comment: 23 pages, no figures; v2: typos corrected, references added; v3: minor changes, references adde

Refining the shallow slip deficit

Geodetic slip inversions for three major (M_w > 7) strike-slip earthquakes (1992 Landers, 1999 Hector Mine and 2010 El Mayor–Cucapah) show a 15–60 per cent reduction in slip near the surface (depth < 2 km) relative to the slip at deeper depths (4–6 km). This significant difference between surface coseismic slip and slip at depth has been termed the shallow slip deficit (SSD). The large magnitude of this deficit has been an enigma since it cannot be explained by shallow creep during the interseismic period or by triggered slip from nearby earthquakes. One potential explanation for the SSD is that the previous geodetic inversions lack data coverage close to surface rupture such that the shallow portions of the slip models are poorly resolved and generally underestimated. In this study, we improve the static coseismic slip inversion for these three earthquakes, especially at shallow depths, by: (1) including data capturing the near-fault deformation from optical imagery and SAR azimuth offsets; (2) refining the interferometric synthetic aperture radar processing with non-boxcar phase filtering, model-dependent range corrections, more complete phase unwrapping by SNAPHU (Statistical Non-linear Approach for Phase Unwrapping) assuming a maximum discontinuity and an on-fault correlation mask; (3) using more detailed, geologically constrained fault geometries and (4) incorporating additional campaign global positioning system (GPS) data. The refined slip models result in much smaller SSDs of 3–19 per cent. We suspect that the remaining minor SSD for these earthquakes likely reflects a combination of our elastic model's inability to fully account for near-surface deformation, which will render our estimates of shallow slip minima, and potentially small amounts of interseismic fault creep or triggered slip, which could ‘make up’ a small percentages of the coseismic SSD during the interseismic period. Our results indicate that it is imperative that slip inversions include accurate measurements of near-fault surface deformation to reliably constrain spatial patterns of slip during major strike-slip earthquakes

Comprehensive Evaluation Of The IFloodS Radar Rainfall Products For Hydrologic Applications

This study describes the generation and testing of a reference rainfall product created from field campaign datasets collected during the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Ground Validation Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) experiment. The study evaluates ground-based radar rainfall (RR) products acquired during IFloodS in the context of building the reference rainfall product. The purpose of IFloodS was not only to attain a high-quality ground-based reference for the validation of satellite rainfall estimates but also to enhance understanding of flood-related rainfall processes and the predictability of flood forecasting. We assessed the six RR estimates (IFC, Q2, CSU-DP, NWS-DP, Stage IV, and Q2-Corrected) using data from rain gauge and disdrometer networks that were located in the broader field campaign area of central and northeastern Iowa. We performed the analyses with respect to time scales ranging from 1 h to the entire campaign period in order to compare the capabilities of each RR product and to characterize the error structure at scales that are frequently used in hydrologic applications. The evaluation results show that the Stage IV estimates perform superior to other estimates, demonstrating the need for gauge-based bias corrections of radar-only products. This correction should account for each product\u27s algorithm-dependent error structure that can be used to build unbiased rainfall products for the campaign reference. We characterized the statistical error structures (e.g., systematic and random components) of each RR estimate and used them for the generation of a campaign reference rainfall product. To assess the hydrologic utility of the reference product, we performed hydrologic simulations driven by the reference product over the Turkey River basin. The comparison of hydrologic simulation results demonstrates that the campaign reference product performs better than Stage IV in streamflow generation