69 research outputs found
Global Transition Rules for Translating Land-use Change (LUH2) To Land-cover Change for CMIP6 using GLM2
Information on historical land-cover change is important for understanding human impacts on the environment. Over the last decade, global models have characterized historical land-use changes, but few have been able to relate these changes with corresponding changes in land-cover. Utilizing the latest global land-use change data, we make several assumptions about the relationship between land-use and land-cover change, and evaluate each scenario with remote sensing data to identify optimal fit. The resulting transition rule can guide the incorporation of land-cover information within earth system models
Existence and stability of hole solutions to complex Ginzburg-Landau equations
We consider the existence and stability of the hole, or dark soliton,
solution to a Ginzburg-Landau perturbation of the defocusing nonlinear
Schroedinger equation (NLS), and to the nearly real complex Ginzburg-Landau
equation (CGL). By using dynamical systems techniques, it is shown that the
dark soliton can persist as either a regular perturbation or a singular
perturbation of that which exists for the NLS. When considering the stability
of the soliton, a major difficulty which must be overcome is that eigenvalues
may bifurcate out of the continuous spectrum, i.e., an edge bifurcation may
occur. Since the continuous spectrum for the NLS covers the imaginary axis, and
since for the CGL it touches the origin, such a bifurcation may lead to an
unstable wave. An additional important consideration is that an edge
bifurcation can happen even if there are no eigenvalues embedded in the
continuous spectrum. Building on and refining ideas first presented in Kapitula
and Sandstede (Physica D, 1998) and Kapitula (SIAM J. Math. Anal., 1999), we
show that when the wave persists as a regular perturbation, at most three
eigenvalues will bifurcate out of the continuous spectrum. Furthermore, we
precisely track these bifurcating eigenvalues, and thus are able to give
conditions for which the perturbed wave will be stable. For the NLS the results
are an improvement and refinement of previous work, while the results for the
CGL are new. The techniques presented are very general and are therefore
applicable to a much larger class of problems than those considered here.Comment: 41 pages, 4 figures, submitte
Greenhouse gas emission curves for advanced biofuel supply chains
Most climate change mitigation scenarios that are consistent with the 1.5â2â°C target rely on a large-scale contribution from biomass, including advanced (second-generation) biofuels. However, land-based biofuel production has been associated with substantial land-use change emissions. Previous studies show a wide range of emission factors, often hiding the influence of spatial heterogeneity. Here we introduce a spatially explicit method for assessing the supply of advanced biofuels at different emission factors and present the results as emission curves. Dedicated crops grown on grasslands, savannahs and abandoned agricultural lands could provide 30âEJBiofuelâyrâ1 with emission factors less than 40âkg of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) emissions per GJBiofuel (for an 85-year time horizon). This increases to 100âEJBiofuelâyrâ1 for emission factors less than 60âkgCO2eâGJBiofuel â1. While these results are uncertain and depend on model assumptions (including time horizon, spatial resolution, technology assumptions and so on), emission curves improve our understanding of the relationship between biofuel supply and its potential contribution to climate change mitigation while accounting for spatial heterogeneity
Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4
Scenario-based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio-economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc-seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area-weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (-0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil-fuelled development scenarios (-0.06 and -0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub-Saharan Africa. In some scenario-region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures.Peer reviewe
Key determinants of global land-use projections
Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies
Emerging Themes and Future Directions of Multi-Sector Nexus Research and Implementation
Water, energy, and food are all essential components of human societies. Collectively, their respective resource systems are interconnected in what is called the ânexusâ. There is growing consensus that a holistic understanding of the interdependencies and trade-offs between these sectors and other related systems is critical to solving many of the global challenges they present. While nexus research has grown exponentially since 2011, there is no unified, overarching approach, and the implementation of concepts remains hampered by the lack of clear case studies. Here, we present the results of a collaborative thought exercise involving 75 scientists and summarize them into 10 key recommendations covering: the most critical nexus issues of today, emerging themes, and where future efforts should be directed. We conclude that a nexus community of practice to promote open communication among researchers, to maintain and share standardized datasets, and to develop applied case studies will facilitate transparent comparisons of models and encourage the adoption of nexus approaches in practice
Emerging Themes and Future Directions of Multi-Sector Nexus Research and Implementation
Water, energy, and food are all essential components of human societies. Collectively, their respective resource systems are interconnected in what is called the ânexusâ. There is growing consensus that a holistic understanding of the interdependencies and trade-offs between these sectors and other related systems is critical to solving many of the global challenges they present. While nexus research has grown exponentially since 2011, there is no unified, overarching approach, and the implementation of concepts remains hampered by the lack of clear case studies. Here, we present the results of a collaborative thought exercise involving 75 scientists and summarize them into 10 key recommendations covering: the most critical nexus issues of today, emerging themes, and where future efforts should be directed. We conclude that a nexus community of practice to promote open communication among researchers, to maintain and share standardized datasets, and to develop applied case studies will facilitate transparent comparisons of models and encourage the adoption of nexus approaches in practice
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