Soil moisture initialization effects in the Indian monsoon system

Towards the goal to understand the role of land-surface processes over the Indian sub-continent, a series of soil-moisture sensitivity simulations have been performed using a non-hydrostatic regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The experiments were driven by the lateral boundary conditions provided by the ERA-Interim (ECMWF) reanalysis. The simulation results show that the pre-monsoonal soil moisture has a significant influence on the monsoonal precipitation. Both, positive and negative soil-moisture precipitation (S-P) feedback processes are of importance. The negative S-P feedback process is especially influential in the western and the northern parts of India

Regional climate projections in two alpine river basins: Upper Danube and Upper Brahmaputra

Projections from coarse-grid global circulation models are not suitable for regional estimates of water balance or trends of extreme precipitation and temperature, especially not in complex terrain. Thus, downscaling of global to regionally resolved projections is necessary to provide input to integrated water resources management approaches for river basins like the Upper Danube River Basin (UDRB) and the Upper Brahmaputra River Basin (UBRB). This paper discusses the application of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM as a dynamical downscaling tool. To provide accurate data the COSMO-CLM model output was post-processed by statistical means. This downscaling chain performs well in the baseline period 1971 to 2000. However, COSMO-CLM performs better in the UDRB than in the UBRB because of a longer application experience and a less complex climate in Europe. Different climate change scenarios were downscaled for the time period 1960–2100. The projections show an increase of temperature in both basins and for all seasons. The values are generally higher in the UBRB with the highest values occurring in the region of the Tibetan Plateau. Annual precipitation shows no substantial change. However, seasonal amounts show clear trends, for instance an increasing amount of spring precipitation in the UDRB. Again, the largest trends for different precipitation statistics are projected in the region of the Tibetan Plateau. Here, the projections show up to 50% longer dry periods in the months June to September with a simultaneous increase of about 10% for the maximum amount of precipitation on five consecutive days. For the Assam region in India, the projections also show an increase of 25% in the number of consecutive dry days during the monsoon season leading to prolonged monsoon breaks

Serological differentiation of antibodies against Rickettsia helvetica, R. raoultii, R. slovaca, R. monacensis and R. felis in dogs from Germany by a micro-immunofluorescent antibody test

Background Spotted Fever Group (SFG) Rickettsiae can cause febrile diseases with or without rash in humans worldwide. In Germany only limited data are available about their medical significance. Serological screening tests for antibodies against rickettsiae usually only distinguish between SFG and Typhus Group (TG) Rickettsiae due to the strong cross reactivities within the groups. Seroprevalence rates in dogs, as possible sentinels for tick-borne diseases, could serve as an indicator for the distribution of different Rickettsia species. Methods In this study, a micro-immunofluorescence assay (micro-IFA) was established for detection and differentiation of antibodies against five Rickettsia species in dogs (R. helvetica, R. raoultii, R. slovaca, R. monacensis and R. felis). Dogs that never left Germany (n = 605) previously investigated with an SFG-ELISA were included in this study and screened at a 1:128 dilution. Endpoint titres of fifty randomly selected seropositive samples of each of the five investigated regions in Germany were determined in order to allow a differentiation of the causative Rickettsia species. Sensitivity and specificity of the micro-IFA were compared with ELISA results of the previous study. Results A total of 93.9% of the dogs were positive for antibodies of the SFG Rickettsiae at the screening titer of 1:128. Differentiation of SFG Rickettsiae with the micro-IFA was possible in 70.4%, but in 29.6% of the cases the detected antibodies were not differentiable. Considering a clear differentiation by a twofold titre difference between observed reactions, the seroprevalence rates were 66.0% for R. helvetica, 2.8% for R. raoultii, 1.6% for R. slovaca, but no serological reaction could be clearly attributed to R. monacensis or R. felis. No statistically significant regional differences were found for R. helvetica, R. slovaca and R. raoultii comparing the five regions of Germany. Comparison of micro-IFA with ELISA revealed a sensitivity of 82.0% and a specificity of 83.8% for the Rickettsia SFG ELISA. Conclusions The micro-IFA is a useful serological tool to differentiate antibodies against different Rickettsia species in dogs. Seroprevalence rates in dogs correspond to the prevalence rates and distribution of Rickettsia-carrying tick species

Subsampling impact on the climate change signal over poland based on simulations from statistical and dynamical downscaling

Most impact studies using downscaled climate data as input assume that the selection of few global climate models (GCMs) representing the largest spread covers the likely range of future changes. This study shows that including more GCMs can result in a very different behavior. We tested the influence of selecting various subsets of GCMs on the climate change signal over Poland from simulations based on dynamical and empirical-statistical downscaling methods. When the climate variable is well simulated by the GCM, such as temperature, results showed that both downscaling methods agree on a warming over Poland by up to 2° or 5°C assuming intermediate or high emission scenarios, respectively, by 2071-2100. As a less robust simulated signal through GCMs, precipitation is expected to increase by up to 10% by 2071-2100 assuming the intermediate emission scenario. However, these changes are uncertain when the high emission scenario and the end of the twenty-first century are of interest. Further, an additional bootstrap test revealed an underestimation in the warming rate varying from 0.5° to more than 4°C over Poland that was found to be largely influenced by the selection of few driving GCMs instead of considering the full range of possible climate model outlooks. Furthermore, we found that differences between various combinations of small subsets from the GCM ensemble of opportunities can be as large as the climate change signal. © 2019 American Meteorological Society

TBE vaccination breakthrough cases—Does age matter?

Funding Information: Funding: This study was sponsored by Pfizer Inc. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) vaccines are highly effective in preventing TBE and vaccine failures (VF) are rare events. In this study, we compared the age distribution of TBE cases and TBE VF in three endemic countries: Sweden, Southern Germany, and Latvia. While the age distribution of TBE cases was similar for those <50 years versus those ≥50 years in all three countries, in Sweden, a higher proportion of VF cases was ≥50 years, whereas most VF cases in Latvia were <50 years of age and more evenly distributed between those <50 years versus those ≥50 in Southern Germany. Here, theoretical explanations were provided, including differences in diagnostic practices, vaccine uptake between age groups, behavioral patterns and underlying medical conditions, as to why VF were generally older in Sweden than the other countries. There is no scientific rationale to give an extra priming dose of TBE vaccine to subjects ≥50 years of age.publishersversionPeer reviewe

CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland - Bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Climate Projections – Gridded Daily Precipitation and Temperature dataset 5 km (CPLCP-GDPT5) consists of projected daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs bias corrected and downscaled to a 5 km  ×  5 km grid. Simulations of one historical period (1971–2000) and two future horizons (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) assuming two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were produced. We used the quantile mapping method and corrected any systematic seasonal bias in these simulations before assessing the changes in annual and seasonal means of precipitation and temperature over Poland. Projected changes estimated from the multi-model ensemble mean showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase steadily by 1 °C until 2021–2050 and by 2 °C until 2071–2100 assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario, this can reach up to almost 4 °C by 2071–2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 to 10 % and by 8 to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs, respectively. Similarly, individual model simulations also exhibited warmer and wetter conditions on an annual scale, showing an intensification of the magnitude of the change at the end of the 21st century. The same applied for projected changes in seasonal means of temperature showing a higher winter warming rate by up to 0.5 °C compared to the other seasons. However, projected changes in seasonal means of precipitation by the individual models largely differ and are sometimes inconsistent, exhibiting spatial variations which depend on the selected season, location, future horizon, and RCP. The overall range of the 90 % confidence interval predicted by the ensemble of multi-model simulations was found to likely vary between −7 % (projected for summer assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario) and +40 % (projected for winter assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario) by the end of the 21st century. Finally, this high-resolution bias-corrected product can serve as a basis for climate change impact and adaptation studies for many sectors over Poland. The CPLCP-GDPT5 dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.4121/uuid:e940ec1a-71a0-449e-bbe3-29217f2ba31d

Recommendations to Improve Tick-Borne Encephalitis Surveillance and Vaccine Uptake in Europe

There has been an increase in reported TBE cases in Europe since 2015, reaching a peak in some countries in 2020, highlighting the need for better management of TBE risk in Europe. TBE surveillance is currently limited, in part, due to varying diagnostic guidelines, access to testing, and awareness of TBE. Consequently, TBE prevalence is underestimated and vaccination recommendations inadequate. TBE vaccine uptake is unsatisfactory in many TBE-endemic European countries. This review summarizes the findings of a scientific workshop of experts to improve TBE surveillance and vaccine uptake in Europe. Strategies to improve TBE surveillance and vaccine uptake should focus on: aligning diagnostic criteria and testing across Europe; expanding current vaccine recommendations and reducing their complexity; and increasing public education of the potential risks posed by TBEV infection.Peer reviewe

Recommendations to Improve Tick-Borne Encephalitis Surveillance and Vaccine Uptake in Europe

There has been an increase in reported TBE cases in Europe since 2015, reaching a peak in some countries in 2020, highlighting the need for better management of TBE risk in Europe. TBE surveillance is currently limited, in part, due to varying diagnostic guidelines, access to testing, and awareness of TBE. Consequently, TBE prevalence is underestimated and vaccination recommendations inadequate. TBE vaccine uptake is unsatisfactory in many TBE-endemic European countries. This review summarizes the findings of a scientific workshop of experts to improve TBE surveillance and vaccine uptake in Europe. Strategies to improve TBE surveillance and vaccine uptake should focus on: aligning diagnostic criteria and testing across Europe; expanding current vaccine recommendations and reducing their complexity; and increasing public education of the potential risks posed by TBEV infection.Peer reviewe