Improving Orbit Estimates for Incomplete Orbits with a New Approach to Priors -- with Applications from Black Holes to Planets

We propose a new approach to Bayesian prior probability distributions (priors) that can improve orbital solutions for low-phase-coverage orbits, where data cover less than approximately 40% of an orbit. In instances of low phase coverage such as with stellar orbits in the Galactic center or with directly-imaged exoplanets, data have low constraining power and thus priors can bias parameter estimates and produce under-estimated confidence intervals. Uniform priors, which are commonly assumed in orbit fitting, are notorious for this. We propose a new observable-based prior paradigm that is based on uniformity in observables. We compare performance of this observable-based prior and of commonly assumed uniform priors using Galactic center and directly-imaged exoplanet (HR 8799) data. The observable-based prior can reduce biases in model parameters by a factor of two and helps avoid under-estimation of confidence intervals for simulations with less than about 40% phase coverage. Above this threshold, orbital solutions for objects with sufficient phase coverage such as S0-2, a short-period star at the Galactic center with full phase coverage, are consistent with previously published results. Below this threshold, the observable-based prior limits prior influence in regions of prior dominance and increases data influence. Using the observable-based prior, HR 8799 orbital analyses favor lower eccentricity orbits and provide stronger evidence that the four planets have a consistent inclination around 30 degrees to within 1-sigma. This analysis also allows for the possibility of coplanarity. We present metrics to quantify improvements in orbital estimates with different priors so that observable-based prior frameworks can be tested and implemented for other low-phase-coverage orbits.Comment: Published in AJ. 23 pages, 14 figures. Monte Carlo chains are available in the published article, or are available upon reques

Numerical Simulation of Porosity in Cements

The pores in cementitious materials, their sizes and connectivity have an important influence on the durability of concrete. Several microstructural models have been developed to simulate the three-dimensional pore network in cement pastes. In this article, microstructures with the \upmu μ ic model are compared with experimental results. It is seen that despite having a resolution for the capillary pores very close to reality, the experimentally observed breakthrough diameter from mercury intrusion is much lower than the values obtained by applying an algorithm of mercury intrusion to the simulated microstructure. The effect of some of the most important input parameters on the pore sizes in the simulated microstructure explored. The phenomenon which seems best able to explain this discrepancy is that C-S-H is not in fact a phase with a smooth surface as represented in microstructural models, but a phase which grows as needles into the pore space, leading to very small water-filled capillary pores from quite young ages. The results demonstrate it will be extremely challenging to represent the porosity of real microstructures in microstructural models on the scale of hundreds of microns necessary to study macroscopic transpor

Numerical Simulation of Porosity in Cements

The pores in cementitious materials, their sizes and connectivity have an important influence on the durability of concrete. Several microstructural models have been developed to simulate the three-dimensional pore network in cement pastes. In this article, microstructures with the ic model are compared with experimental results. It is seen that despite having a resolution for the capillary pores very close to reality, the experimentally observed breakthrough diameter from mercury intrusion is much lower than the values obtained by applying an algorithm of mercury intrusion to the simulated microstructure. The effect of some of the most important input parameters on the pore sizes in the simulated microstructure explored. The phenomenon which seems best able to explain this discrepancy is that C-S-H is not in fact a phase with a smooth surface as represented in microstructural models, but a phase which grows as needles into the pore space, leading to very small water-filled capillary pores from quite young ages. The results demonstrate it will be extremely challenging to represent the porosity of real microstructures in microstructural models on the scale of hundreds of microns necessary to study macroscopic transport

MediaEval 2016 Predicting Media Interestingness Task

Volume: 1739 Host publication title: MediaEval 2016 Multimedia Benchmark Workshop Host publication sub-title: Working Notes Proceedings of the MediaEval 2016 WorkshopNon peer reviewe

Enhancing Transport Efficiency by Hybrid Routing Strategy

Traffic is essential for many dynamic processes on real networks, such as internet and urban traffic systems. The transport efficiency of the traffic system can be improved by taking full advantage of the resources in the system. In this paper, we propose a dual-strategy routing model for network traffic system, to realize the plenary utility of the whole network. The packets are delivered according to different "efficient routing strategies" [Yan, et al, Phys. Rev. E 73, 046108 (2006)]. We introduce the accumulate rate of packets, {\eta} to measure the performance of traffic system in the congested phase, and propose the so-called equivalent generation rate of packet to analyze the jamming processes. From analytical and numerical results, we find that, for suitable selection of strategies, the dual- strategy system performs better than the single-strategy system in a broad region of strategy mixing ratio. The analytical solution to the jamming processes is verified by estimating the number of jammed nodes, which coincides well with the result from simulation.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figure

Produção, melhoramento genético e potencialidades do feijão-caupi no Brasil.

A agricultura brasileira vem passando por grandes mudanças tecnológicas e, além disso, a globalização do agronegócio tem provocado reflexos na cadeia produtiva de várias culturas, principalmente daquelas que dependem do uso de um grande volume de insumos, notadamente fertilizantes e defensivos agrícolas. Essas culturas vêm tendo um custo de produção mais elevado a cada ano, em consequência disso, os produtores tem buscado novas opções para seus arranjos produtivos. Constata-se que o cultivo do feijão-caupi está se expandindo para a região dos cerrados, das regiões Norte, Nordeste e Centro-Oeste, onde é incorporado aos arranjos produtivos como safrinha após as culturas da soja e do arroz, e, em alguns locais, como cultura principal. Na região dos cerrados, principalmente quando é cultivado em forma de safrinha, o feijão-caupi tem um custo muito competitivo, fator que tem feito aumentar o interesse dos produtores pela cultura. A oferta de um produto padronizado, de alta qualidade, em quantidade e com regularidade, vem despertando o interesse de agroindustriais de outras regiões e está contribuindo para a abertura de novos mercados para a cultura. O melhoramento genético do feijão-caupi no Sistema Nacional de Pesquisa Agropecuária (SNPA) tem sido feito considerando os interesses de agricultores familiares e empresariais e com o foco voltado para o complexo produtor, comerciante, agroindustrial, distribuidor e consumidor, e recentemente, exportador. Neste trabalho são apresentados dados de produção, informações sócioeconômicas, resultados do melhoramento genético e considerações sobre a perspectiva da cultura do feijão-caupi no Brasil

Avaliação preliminar de famílias de F2:3 de feijão-caupi com de inflorescência composta.

O feijão-caupi (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.) é uma leguminosa com destaque comercial devido ao seu curto ciclo para maturidade e por ser uma importante fonte de carboidratos e proteínas. Atualmente, devido a utilização da cultura em lavouras que empregam alta tecnologia tem sido dada maior atenção à arquitetura da planta, visando a facilidade do cultivo mecanizado e a obtenção de um maior potencial genético produtivo. A inflorescência composta mostra-se bastante promissora para o melhoramento do feijão-caupi, uma vez que aumenta o número de vagens por pedúnculo e por planta, característica que constitui importante componente de produção. Desse modo, este trabalho teve como objetivo a avaliação preliminar de famílias F2:3 de feijão-caupi portadoras de inflorescência composta quanto a maturidade e a produção. Foram avaliados o ciclo e a produtividade de 460 famílias F2:3 em um experimento em delineamento de blocos aumentados. As famílias foram distribuídas em 10 blocos, sendo cada conjunto constituído de 46 famílias e duas testemunhas. Das 460 famílias F2:3 somente 343 foram incluídas na análise de variância. Não houve diferença entre famílias para nenhum dos caracteres avaliados. Entretanto, houve diferença entre famílias e testemunhas. Do total de famílias, 4,0% e 7,8% apresentaram-se, para floração e maturidade, respectivamente, mais precoces que a testemunha mais precoce e 25,6% das famílias apresentaram produtividade por parcela superior a testemunha mais produtiva.CONAC 2012. Disponível em: http://www.conac2012.org/resumos/pdf/182a.pdf. Acesso em: 02 ago. 2013

The impact of cataract surgey on vision-related quality of life for bilateral cataract patients in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam: a prospective study

BACKGROUND: To determine the impact of cataract surgery on vision-related quality of life (VRQOL) and examine the association between objective visual measures and change in VRQOL after surgery among bilateral cataract patients in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. METHODS: A cohort of older patients with bilateral cataract was assessed one week before and one to three months after first eye or both eye cataract surgery. Visual measures including visual acuity, contrast sensitivity and stereopsis were obtained. Vision-related quality of life was assessed using the NEI VFQ-25. Descriptive analyses and a generalized linear estimating equation (GEE) analysis were undertaken to measure change in VRQOL after surgery. RESULTS: Four hundred and thirteen patients were assessed before cataract surgery and 247 completed the follow-up assessment one to three months after first or both eye cataract surgery. Overall, VRQOL significantly improved after cataract surgery (p < 0.001) particularly after both eye surgeries. Binocular contrast sensitivity (p < 0.001) and stereopsis (p < 0.001) were also associated with change in VRQOL after cataract surgery. Visual acuity was not associated with VRQOL. CONCLUSIONS: Cataract surgery significantly improved VRQOL among bilateral cataract patients in Vietnam. Contrast sensitivity as well as stereopsis, rather than visual acuity significantly affected VRQOL after cataract surgery