Using continuous-time spatial capture–recapture models to make inference about animal activity patterns

This work was part‐funded by EPSRC Grant EP/I000917/1, by the research fellowship RF‐2018‐213/9, and the fieldwork was funded by the Summerlee Foundation and Panthera.1. Quantifying the distribution of daily activity is an important component of behavioral ecology. Historically, it has been difficult to obtain data on activity patterns, especially for elusive species. However, the development of affordable camera traps and their widespread usage has led to an explosion of available data from which activity patterns can be estimated. 2. Continuous-time spatial capture?recapture (CT SCR) models drop the occasion structure seen in traditional spatial and nonspatial capture?recapture (CR) models and use the actual times of capture. In addition to estimating density, CT SCR models estimate expected encounters through time. Cyclic splines can be used to allow flexible shapes for modeling cyclic activity patterns, and the fact that SCR models also incorporate distance means that space-time interactions can be explored. This method is applied to a jaguar dataset. 3. Jaguars in Belize are most active and range furthest in the evening and early morning and when they are located closer to the network of trails. There is some evidence that females have a less variable pattern than males. The comparison between sexes demonstrates how CT SCR can be used to explore hypotheses about animal behavior within a formal modeling framework. 4. SCR models were developed primarily to estimate and model density, but the models can be used to explore processes that interact across space and time, especially when using the CT SCR framework that models the temporal dimension at a finer resolution.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Substance abuse and HIV risk behaviours amongst primary health care service users in Cape Town

Objective: To document prevalence of, and association between, substance use and HIV risk behaviours among primary care patients.Method: Cross-sectional survey. Four primary care clinics in Cape Town. We selected clinics using stratified sampling, and systematically selected 131 patients from attendance logs. We assessed substance use with the Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test, and HIV risk with items addressing injection drug use, blood-sharing rituals, and sexual risk behaviours. Results: Substances most used at hazardous levels were tobacco (28.2%) and alcohol (14.8%). Among possible HIV risk factors, highest prevalence was participation in blood-sharing rituals (25%), and having had an STI (19.8%). An association between substance use and sexual risk behaviours was only found among those aged 18-24. Conclusion: In younger patients, presence of substance use or HIV risk behaviours increases the probability that the other is present. Keywords: substance abuse, HIV risk behaviours, primary care South African Psychiatry Review Vol. 8(4) 2005: 160-16

Substance abuse and HIV risk behaviours amongst primary health care service users in Cape Town

Objective: To document prevalence of, and association between, substance use and HIV risk behaviours among primary care patients.Method: Cross-sectional survey. Four primary care clinics in Cape Town. We selected clinics using stratified sampling, and systematically selected 131 patients from attendance logs. We assessed substance use with the Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test, and HIV risk with items addressing injection drug use, blood-sharing rituals, and sexual risk behaviours. Results: Substances most used at hazardous levels were tobacco (28.2%) and alcohol (14.8%). Among possible HIV risk factors, highest prevalence was participation in blood-sharing rituals (25%), and having had an STI (19.8%). An association between substance use and sexual risk behaviours was only found among those aged 18-24. Conclusion: In younger patients, presence of substance use or HIV risk behaviours increases the probability that the other is present

Nonlinear mixed effects modeling of gametocyte carriage in patients with uncomplicated malaria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Gametocytes are the sexual form of the malaria parasite and the main agents of transmission. While there are several factors that influence host infectivity, the density of gametocytes appears to be the best single measure that is related to the human host's infectivity to mosquitoes. Despite the obviously important role that gametocytes play in the transmission of malaria and spread of anti-malarial resistance, it is common to estimate gametocyte carriage indirectly based on asexual parasite measurements. The objective of this research was to directly model observed gametocyte densities over time, during the primary infection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Of 447 patients enrolled in sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine therapeutic efficacy studies in South Africa and Mozambique, a subset of 103 patients who had no gametocytes pre-treatment and who had at least three non-zero gametocyte densities over the 42-day follow up period were included in this analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A variety of different functions were examined. A modified version of the critical exponential function was selected for the final model given its robustness across different datasets and its flexibility in assuming a variety of different shapes. Age, site, initial asexual parasite density (logged to the base 10), and an empirical patient category were the co-variates that were found to improve the model.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A population nonlinear modeling approach seems promising and produced a flexible function whose estimates were stable across various different datasets. Surprisingly, dihydrofolate reductase and dihydropteroate synthetase mutation prevalence did not enter the model. This is probably related to a lack of power (quintuple mutations n = 12), and informative censoring; treatment failures were withdrawn from the study and given rescue treatment, usually prior to completion of follow up.</p

Canagliflozin and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes and nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to &lt;90 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and albuminuria (ratio of albumin [mg] to creatinine [g], &gt;300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of &lt;15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P&lt;0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P&lt;0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years