Intercontinental Movement of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Clade 2.3.4.4 Virus to the United States, 2021

We detected Eurasian-origin highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus belonging to the Gs/GD lineage, clade 2.3.4.4b, in wild waterfowl in 2 Atlantic coastal states in the United States. Bird banding data showed widespread movement of waterfowl within the Atlantic Flyway and between neighboring flyways and northern breeding grounds

H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza clade 2.3.4.4b in wild and domestic birds: Introductions into the United States and reassortments, December 2021–April 2022

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) of the A/goose/Guangdong/1/1996 lineage H5 clade 2.3.4.4b continue to have a devastating effect on domestic and wild birds. Full genome sequence analyses using 1369 H5N1 HPAIVs detected in the United States (U.S.) in wild birds, commercial poultry, and backyard flocks from December 2021 to April 2022, showed three phylogenetically distinct H5N1 virus introductions in the U.S. by wild birds. Unreassorted Eurasian genotypes A1 and A2 entered the Northeast Atlantic states, whereas a genetically distinct A3 genotype was detected in Alaska. The A1 genotype spread westward via wild bird migration and reassorted with North American wild bird avian influenza viruses. Reassortments of up to five internal genes generated a total of 21 distinct clusters; of these, six genotypes represented 92% of the HPAIVs examined. By phylodynamic analyses, most detections in domestic birds were shown to be point-source transmissions from wild birds, with limited farm-to-farm spread

Invader removal triggers competitive release in a threatened avian predator

Changes in the distribution and abundance of invasive species can have far-reaching ecological consequences. Programs to control invaders are common but gauging the effectiveness of such programs using carefully controlled, large-scale field experiments is rare, especially at higher trophic levels. Experimental manipulations coupled with long-term demographic monitoring can reveal the mechanistic underpinnings of interspecific competition among apex predators and suggest mitigation options for invasive species. We used a large-scale before-after control-impact removal experiment to investigate the effects of an invasive competitor, the barred owl (Strix varia), on the population dynamics of an iconic old-forest native species, the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). Removal of barred owls had a strong, positive effect on survival of sympatric spotted owls and a weaker but positive effect on spotted owl dispersal and recruitment. After removals, the estimated mean annual rate of population change for spotted owls stabilized in areas with removals (0.2% decline per year), but continued to decline sharply in areas without removals (12.1% decline per year). The results demonstrated that the most substantial changes in population dynamics of northern spotted owls over the past two decades were associated with the invasion, population expansion, and subsequent removal of barred owls. Our study provides experimental evidence of the demographic consequences of competitive release, where a threatened avian predator was freed from restrictions imposed on its population dynamics with the removal of a competitively dominant invasive species

Range-wide sources of variation in reproductive rates of northern spotted owls

We conducted a range-wide investigation of the dynamics of site-level reproductive rate of northern spotted owls using survey data from 11 study areas across the subspecies geographic range collected during 1993–2018. Our analytical approach accounted for imperfect detection of owl pairs and misclassification of successful reproduction (i.e., at least one young fledged) and contributed further insights into northern spotted owl population ecology and dynamics. Both nondetection and state misclassification were important, especially because factors affecting these sources of error also affected focal ecological parameters. Annual probabilities of site occupancy were greatest at sites with successful reproduction in the previous year and lowest for sites not occupied by a pair in the previous year. Site-specific occupancy transition probabilities declined over time and were negatively affected by barred owl presence. Overall, the site-specific probability of successful reproduction showed substantial year-to-year fluctuations and was similar for occupied sites that did or did not experience successful reproduction the previous year. Site-specific probabilities for successful reproduction were very small for sites that were unoccupied the previous year. Barred owl presence negatively affected the probability of successful reproduction by northern spotted owls in Washington and California, as predicted, but the effect in Oregon was mixed. The proportions of sites occupied by northern spotted owl pairs showed steep, near-monotonic declines over the study period, with all study areas showing the lowest observed levels of occupancy to date. If trends continue it is likely that northern spotted owls will become extirpated throughout large portions of their range in the coming decades

Range-wide declines of northern spotted owl populations in the Pacific Northwest: A meta-analysis

The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) inhabits older coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest and has been at the center of forest management issues in this region. The immediate threats to this federally listed species include habitat loss and competition with barred owls (Strix varia), which invaded from eastern North America. We conducted a prospective meta-analysis to assess population trends and factors affecting those trends in northern spotted owls using 26 years of survey and capture-recapture data from 11 study areas across the owls\u27 geographic range to analyze demographic traits, rates of population change, and occupancy parameters for spotted owl territories. We found that northern spotted owl populations experienced significant declines of 6–9% annually on 6 study areas and 2–5% annually on 5 other study areas. Annual declines translated to ≤35% of the populations remaining on 7 study areas since 1995. Barred owl presence on spotted owl territories was the primary factor negatively affecting apparent survival, recruitment, and ultimately, rates of population change. Analysis of spotted and barred owl detections in an occupancy framework corroborated the capture-recapture analyses with barred owl presence increasing territorial extinction and decreasing territorial colonization of spotted owls. While landscape habitat components reduced the effect of barred owls on these rates of decline, they did not reverse the negative trend. Our analyses indicated that northern spotted owl populations potentially face extirpation if the negative effects of barred owls are not ameliorated while maintaining northern spotted owl habitat across their range

Northern spotted owl reproductive rates

These datasets were used in the prospective meta-analysis of northern spotted owl reproductive rates over 25 years across 11 study areas located throughout the range of the owl. A multi-state occupancy file was created by collapsing site-specific information on owl reproductive status into bimonthly (2 per month) survey occasions. These data were then analyzed to estimate annual reproductive rates, defined as: number of owls successfully reproducing/number of owl pairs, while accounting for variation in survey effort by accounting for imperfect detection of owls and potential misclassification of reproductive status. Covariates describing the probability of barred owl presence, habitat conditions, and climate were also included to explain variation in reproductive rates. These data were collected as part of the long-term demographic monitoring of northern spotted owls in association with the Effectiveness Monitoring Plan of the Northwest Forest Plan. Data included here were analyzed and interpreted in the following manuscript in review: Rockweit, J. T. et al. 2021. Sources of Variation in Reproductive Rates of Northern Spotted Owls Across Their Range: A Prospective Meta-Analysis.The datasets associated with this readme file include all relevant script files needed for the multi-state occupancy analysis of northern spotted owl reproduction. For specific file information see the readme files in this record. These data were collected as part of the long-term demographic monitoring of northern spotted owls in association with the Effectiveness Monitoring Plan of the Northwest Forest Plan

Estimating Northern Spotted Owl (\u3ci\u3eStrix occidentalis caurina\u3c/i\u3e) Pair Detection Probabilities Based on Call-Back Surveys Associated with Long-Term Mark-Recapture Studies, 1993–2018

The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina; hereinafter NSO) was listed as “threatened” under the Endangered Species Act in 1990 and population declines have continued since that listing. Given the species’ protected status, any proposed activities on Federal lands that might impact NSO require consultation with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and part of that consultation often includes surveys to determine presence and occupancy status of the species in the proposed activity area. The objective of this report is to present study-area specific estimates of the probability of detection for NSO pairs from twelve 2-week seasonal survey periods using data from a recent range-wide meta-analysis. These estimates were a by-product of pair occupancy modeling but might provide insight into potential changes in the effect of the invasive barred owl on NSO detection rates. We used two-species multi-season occupancy models to estimate the probability of detection for NSOs on each of 11 study areas for each 2-week survey period and relative to the range-wide effect of barred owl presence or absence. Detection probabilities within the season generally increased from the earliest surveys in March through mid-season, decreasing again in the late season on five study areas. For three other study areas, detection rates were highest during the earliest survey periods in late March or early April. Estimates of cumulative seasonal detection of NSO (across a maximum of six within-season surveys) were less than 0.90 when barred owls (BO) were present on all but one study area, regardless of when surveys were conducted within a season. However, despite low detection rates, the probability that a territory was occupied when an NSO pair was not detected over six within-season surveys was also very low. When BO are not present on a territory, a six-survey protocol had a high probability of detecting an NSO pair at least once during the season on all study areas, except for the very lowest per-survey estimates. Conducting most surveys earlier in the season, when the probability of detecting pairs is highest (through May on most areas) could improve seasonal detection rates. However, alternative methods of population monitoring—such as the use of passive acoustic recorders—may be needed to continue monitoring NSO for research and management

Northern spotted owl reproductive rates (version 3)

These datasets were used in the prospective meta-analysis of northern spotted owl reproductive rates over 25 years across 11 study areas located throughout the range of the owl. A multi-state occupancy file was created by collapsing site-specific information on owl reproductive status into bimonthly (2 per month) survey occasions. These data were then analyzed to estimate annual reproductive rates, defined as: number of owls successfully reproducing/number of owl pairs, while accounting for variation in survey effort by accounting for imperfect detection of owls and potential misclassification of reproductive status. Covariates describing the probability of barred owl presence, habitat conditions, and climate were also included to explain variation in reproductive rates. These data were collected as part of the long-term demographic monitoring of northern spotted owls in association with the Effectiveness Monitoring Plan of the Northwest Forest Plan. Data included here were analyzed and interpreted in the following manuscript in review: Rockweit, J. T. et al. 2021. Sources of Variation in Reproductive Rates of Northern Spotted Owls Across Their Range: A Prospective Meta-Analysis. The datasets associated with this readme file include all relevant script files needed for the multi-state occupancy analysis of northern spotted owl reproduction. For specific file information see the readme files in this record. These data were collected as part of the long-term demographic monitoring of northern spotted owls in association with the Effectiveness Monitoring Plan of the Northwest Forest Plan. Version 2 has the same information as version 1, plus a table of ranked model results that includes all models tested and compared analyzing range-wide sources of variation in northern spotted owl reproductive rates.Version 2 has the same information as version 1, plus a table of ranked model results that includes all models tested and compared analyzing range-wide sources of variation in northern spotted owl reproductive rates.Version 3 has the same information as version 3, with the following changes: (1) Updated full list of models .csv to reflect updated analysis. (2) Updated the data files (.pao and seascov.csv) for the COA study area – all other study areas have not changed

Northern spotted owl reproductive rates (version 2)

These datasets were used in the prospective meta-analysis of northern spotted owl reproductive rates over 25 years across 11 study areas located throughout the range of the owl. A multi-state occupancy file was created by collapsing site-specific information on owl reproductive status into bimonthly (2 per month) survey occasions. These data were then analyzed to estimate annual reproductive rates, defined as: number of owls successfully reproducing/number of owl pairs, while accounting for variation in survey effort by accounting for imperfect detection of owls and potential misclassification of reproductive status. Covariates describing the probability of barred owl presence, habitat conditions, and climate were also included to explain variation in reproductive rates. These data were collected as part of the long-term demographic monitoring of northern spotted owls in association with the Effectiveness Monitoring Plan of the Northwest Forest Plan. Data included here were analyzed and interpreted in the following manuscript in review: Rockweit, J. T. et al. 2021. Sources of Variation in Reproductive Rates of Northern Spotted Owls Across Their Range: A Prospective Meta-Analysis. The datasets associated with this readme file include all relevant script files needed for the multi-state occupancy analysis of northern spotted owl reproduction. For specific file information see the readme files in this record. These data were collected as part of the long-term demographic monitoring of northern spotted owls in association with the Effectiveness Monitoring Plan of the Northwest Forest Plan. Version 2 has the same information as version 1, plus a table of ranked model results that includes all models tested and compared analyzing range-wide sources of variation in northern spotted owl reproductive rates