The Urban Heat Island Mitigation Impact Screening Tool (MIST)

A web-based software tool has been developed to assist urban planners and air quality management officials in assessing the potential of urban heat island mitigation strategies to affect the urban climate, air quality, and energy consumption within their cities. The user of the tool can select from over 170 US cities for which to conduct the analysis, and can specify city-wide changes in surface reflectivity and/or vegetative cover. The Mitigation Impact Screening Tool (MIST) then extrapolates results from a suite of simulations for 20 cities to estimate air temperature changes associated with the specified changes in surface characteristics for the selected city. Alternatively the user can simply define a nominal air temperature reduction that they hope to achieve with an unspecified mitigation scenario. These air temperature changes are then input to energy and ozone models to estimate the impact that the mitigation action may have on the selected city. The results presented by MIST include a high degree of uncertainty and are intended only as a first-order estimate that urban planners can use to assess the viability of heat island mitigation strategies for their cities. As appropriate, MIST analyses should be supplemented by more detailed modeling

Trends in Streamflow and Precipitation for Selected Sites in the Elkhorn River Basin and in Streamflow in the Salt Creek and Platte River Basins, Nebraska, 1961–2011

To better understand the streamflow trends at the streamgages in the Elkhorn River Basin in Nebraska, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Lower Elkhorn Natural Resources District further investigated streamflow trends at the eight streamgages on the Elkhorn River, Salt Creek, and the Lower Platte River that indicated a positive trend in streamflow characteristics and analyzed precipitation trends in the four basins upstream from the Elkhorn River Basin streamgages. An analysis of four streamgages in the Elkhorn River Basin, one streamgage in Salt Creek Basin, and three streamgages in the Lower Platte River Basin that had previously indicated trends in selected annual mean streamflow, annual low flows, fall low flows, and growing season monthly mean streamflows metrics were analyzed for the period from 1961 to 2011. A streamgage in the Upper Elkhorn River Basin (Elkhorn River at Neligh, Nebraska [USGS station 06798500; maintained by USGS from water years 1930 to 1993, maintained by Nebraska Department of Natural Resources from water years 1994 to 2019]) had significant positive trends in annual mean streamflow and insignificant trends for other streamflow metrics whereas the lower three sites (Logan Creek near Uehling, Nebr. [USGS station 06799500]; Maple Creek at Nickerson, Nebr. [USGS station 06800000]; and Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr. [USGS station 06800500]) had significant positive trends for annual mean streamflow, for all durations of the annual low-flow periods (1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and 183-day periods), for all durations of the low-flow periods in October–November (1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, and 60-day periods), and for monthly mean streamflow for July, August, and September. Upstream from the confluence of the Elkhorn River and the Platte River, the Platte River at North Bend, Nebr. (USGS station 06796000), streamgage indicated insignificant trends for most streamflow metrics. A streamgage in the Salt Creek Basin (Salt Creek at Greenwood, Nebr. [USGS station 06803555]) also indicated positive trends in some low-flows metrics. Streamflow at the Platte River at Louisville, Nebr. (USGS station 06805500), streamgage, downstream from the Salt Creek and Elkhorn River inflows, indicated significant positive trends in most annual and all October–November low flows and August mean streamflow but insignificant trends in annual mean streamflow and June, July, and September monthly mean streamflows. Streamflow records for the Platte River near Duncan, Nebr. (USGS station 06774000), streamgage only indicated a significant trend in the August mean streamflow; no other metrics had significant trends at the streamgage. The trend analyses are sensitive to the period that is analyzed for trends. Sites with the most significant trends for low-flow metrics for the period 1961–2011 have fewer significant trends for low-flow metrics for the period after 1980–2011. The results indicate that positive trends in low flows at the Salt Creek and Elkhorn River streamgages may be contributing to positive trends in low flows for the Platte River at Louisville, Nebr., streamgage. Likewise, streamflow in the Salt Creek and Elkhorn River Basins may be contributing to the positive trend in August mean streamflow for the Platte River at Louisville, Nebr., streamgage, three lower Elkhorn River streamgages, and the Salt Creek streamgage. Precipitation was also examined as a primary cause for streamflow trends in the Elkhorn River Basin. For the four streamgages in the Elkhorn River Basin, relations between precipitation and streamflow were examined on an annual and monthly basis using linear regression. In general, the goodness of fit for the linear relations was poor with coefficient of determination values of less than or equal to 0.10 for four of the eight relations. Only one significant increase in annual precipitation upstream from the four streamgages and the frequent detection of significant increases in streamflow after removing the effect of precipitation indicate that other factors besides precipitation may have played a role in the significant positive trends in low-flow periods in the lower Elkhorn River and its tributaries

Flood-inundation Maps for the Meramec River at Valley Park and at Fenton, Missouri, 2017

Two sets of digital flood-inundation map libraries that spanned a combined 16.7-mile reach of the Meramec River that extends upstream from Valley Park, Missouri, to downstream from Fenton, Missouri, were created by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the United States Army Corps of Engineers, St. Louis Metropolitan Sewer District, Missouri Department of Transportation, Missouri American Water, and Federal Emergency Management Agency Region 7. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the cooperative USGS streamgages on the Meramec River at Valley Park, Missouri, (USGS station number 07019130) and the Meramec River at Fenton, Missouri (USGS station number 07019210). Near-real-time stage data at these streamgages may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/, which also forecasts flood hydrographs at these sites (listed as NWS sites vllm7 and fnnm7, respectively). Flood profiles were computed for the stream reaches by means of a calibrated one-dimensional step-backwater hydraulic model. The model was calibrated using a stage-discharge relation at the Meramec River near Eureka streamgage (USGS station number 07019000) and documented high-water marks from the flood of December 2015 through January 2016. The calibrated hydraulic model was used to compute two sets of water-surface profiles: one set for the streamgage at Valley Park, Missouri (USGS station number 07019130), and one set for the USGS streamgage on the Meramec River at Fenton, Missouri (USGS station number 07019210). The water-surface profiles were produced for stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the datum from each streamgage and ranging from the NWS action stage, or near bankfull discharge, to the stage corresponding to the estimated 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (500-year recurrence interval) flood, as determined at the Eureka streamgage (USGS station number 07019000). The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a 0.28-ft vertical accuracy and 3.28-ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each flood stage (water level). The availability of these maps, along with internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgages and forecasted high-flow stages from the NWS, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures and for postflood recovery efforts

Flood-inundation Maps for a 12.5-mile Reach of Big Papillion Creek at Omaha, Nebraska

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 12.5-mile reach of the Big Papillion Creek from 0.6 mile upstream from the State Street Bridge to the 72nd Street Bridge in Omaha, Nebraska, were created by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on the Big Papillion Creek at Fort Street at Omaha, Nebraska (station 06610732). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained on the Internet from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/, which also forecasts flood hydrographs at this site. Flood profiles were computed for the 12.5-mile reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by using the current (2015) stage-discharge relation at streamgages for the Big Papillion Creek at Fort Street at Omaha, Nebraska, and the Big Papillion Creek at Q Street at Omaha, Nebraska. The hydraulic model was then used to compute 15 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum for the Big Papillion Creek at Fort Street and ranging from 18 ft (or near bankfull) to 32 ft, which exceeds the “major flood stage” as defined by the National Weather Service. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a Geographic Information System digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging data having a 1.18-ft vertical accuracy and 3.28-ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each flood stage (water level). The availability of these flood-inundation maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the National Weather Service, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts

Streambed Adjustment and Channel Widening in Eastern Nebraska

In eastern Nebraska, stream straightening and dredging efforts since the 1890s have disturbed the natural equilibrium of stream channels and have led to streambed adjustment by degradation and subsequent channel widening. This report describes a study to evaluate the effect these disturbances have had on stream channels in eastern Nebraska. Two sets of survey data were collected approximately 2 years apart during 1996–99 at 151 primary sites. Additionally, historical streambed-elevation data (dating back to the 1890s) were compiled from several sources for the primary sites and 45 supplemental sites, and relevant disturbances were identified for each of eight basin groupings. Streambed-elevation data sets were used to estimate the amount of change to the streambed at the sites over the time period of the data. Recent channel widening was documented for 73 of the primary sites by comparing the two survey sets

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics of Selected Sites in the Elkhorn River, Salt Creek, and Lower Platte River Basins, Eastern Nebraska, 1928–2004, and Evaluation of Streamflows in Relation to Instream-Flow Criteria, 1953–2004

The Nebraska Department of Natural Resources approved instream-flow appropriations on the Platte River to maintain fish communities, whooping crane roost habitat, and wet meadows used by several wild bird species. In the lower Platte River region, the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission owns an appropriation filed to maintain streamflow for fish communities between the Platte River confluence with the Elkhorn River and the mouth of the Platte River. Because Elkhorn River flow is an integral part of the flow in the reach addressed by this appropriation, the Upper Elkhorn and Lower Elkhorn Natural Resources Districts are involved in overall management of anthropogenic effects on the availability of surface water for instream requirements. The Physical Habitat Simulation System (PHABSIM) and other estimation methodologies were used previously to determine instream requirements for Platte River biota, which led to the filing of five water appropriations applications with the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources in 1993 by the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission. One of these requested instream-flow appropriations of 3,700 cubic feet per second was for the reach from the Elkhorn River to the mouth of the Platte River. Four appropriations were granted with modifications in 1998, by the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources. Daily streamflow data for the periods of record were summarized for 17 streamflow-gaging stations in Nebraska to evaluate streamflow characteristics, including low-flow intervals for consecutive durations of 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, and 183 days. Temporal trends in selected streamflow statistics were not adjusted for variability in precipitation. Results indicated significant positive temporal trends in annual flow for the period of record at eight streamflow-gaging stations – Platte River near Duncan (06774000), Platte River at North Bend (06796000), Elkhorn River at Neligh (06798500), Logan Creek near Uehling (06799500), Maple Creek near Nickerson (06800000), Elkhorn River at Waterloo (06800500), Salt Creek at Greenwood (06803555), and Platte River at Louisville (06805500). In general, sites in the Elkhorn River Basin upstream from Norfolk showed fewer significant trends than did sites downstream from Norfolk and sites in the Platte River and Salt Creek basins, where trends in low flows also were positive. Historical Platte River streamflow records for the streamflow-gaging station at Louisville, Nebraska, were used to determine the number of days per water year (Sept. 30 to Oct. 1) when flows failed to satisfy the minimum criteria of the instream-flow appropriation prior to its filing in 1993. Before 1993, the median number of days the criteria were not satisfied was about 120 days per water year. During 1993 through 2004, daily mean flows at Louisville, Nebraska, have failed to satisfy the criteria for 638 days total (median value equals 21.5 days per year). Most of these low-flow intervals occurred in summer through early fall. For water years 1953 through 2004, of the discrete intervals when flow was less that the criteria levels, 61 percent were 3 days or greater in duration, and 38 percent were 7 days or greater in duration. The median duration of intervals of flow less than the criteria levels was 4 consecutive days during 1953 through 2004

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics of Selected Sites in the Elkhorn River, Salt Creek, and Lower Platte River Basins, Eastern Nebraska, 1928–2004, and Evaluation of Streamflows in Relation to Instream-Flow Criteria, 1953–2004

The Nebraska Department of Natural Resources approved instream-flow appropriations on the Platte River to maintain fish communities, whooping crane roost habitat, and wet meadows used by several wild bird species. In the lower Platte River region, the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission owns an appropriation filed to maintain streamflow for fish communities between the Platte River confluence with the Elkhorn River and the mouth of the Platte River. Because Elkhorn River flow is an integral part of the flow in the reach addressed by this appropriation, the Upper Elkhorn and Lower Elkhorn Natural Resources Districts are involved in overall management of anthropogenic effects on the availability of surface water for instream requirements. The Physical Habitat Simulation System (PHABSIM) and other estimation methodologies were used previously to determine instream requirements for Platte River biota, which led to the filing of five water appropriations applications with the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources in 1993 by the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission. One of these requested instream-flow appropriations of 3,700 cubic feet per second was for the reach from the Elkhorn River to the mouth of the Platte River. Four appropriations were granted with modifications in 1998, by the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources. Daily streamflow data for the periods of record were summarized for 17 streamflow-gaging stations in Nebraska to evaluate streamflow characteristics, including low-flow intervals for consecutive durations of 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, and 183 days. Temporal trends in selected streamflow statistics were not adjusted for variability in precipitation. Results indicated significant positive temporal trends in annual flow for the period of record at eight streamflow-gaging stations – Platte River near Duncan (06774000), Platte River at North Bend (06796000), Elkhorn River at Neligh (06798500), Logan Creek near Uehling (06799500), Maple Creek near Nickerson (06800000), Elkhorn River at Waterloo (06800500), Salt Creek at Greenwood (06803555), and Platte River at Louisville (06805500). In general, sites in the Elkhorn River Basin upstream from Norfolk showed fewer significant trends than did sites downstream from Norfolk and sites in the Platte River and Salt Creek basins, where trends in low flows also were positive. Historical Platte River streamflow records for the streamflow-gaging station at Louisville, Nebraska, were used to determine the number of days per water year (Sept. 30 to Oct. 1) when flows failed to satisfy the minimum criteria of the instream-flow appropriation prior to its filing in 1993. Before 1993, the median number of days the criteria were not satisfied was about 120 days per water year. During 1993 through 2004, daily mean flows at Louisville, Nebraska, have failed to satisfy the criteria for 638 days total (median value equals 21.5 days per year). Most of these low-flow intervals occurred in summer through early fall. For water years 1953 through 2004, of the discrete intervals when flow was less that the criteria levels, 61 percent were 3 days or greater in duration, and 38 percent were 7 days or greater in duration. The median duration of intervals of flow less than the criteria levels was 4 consecutive days during 1953 through 2004

Estimated Flood Discharges and Map of Flood-Inundated Areas for Omaha Creek, near Homer, Nebraska, 2005

Repeated flooding of Omaha Creek has caused damage in the Village of Homer. Long-term degradation and bridge scouring have changed substantially the channel characteristics of Omaha Creek. Flood-plain managers, planners, homeowners, and others rely on maps to identify areas at risk of being inundated. To identify areas at risk for inundation by a flood having a 1-percent annual probability, maps were created using topographic data and water-surface elevations resulting from hydrologic and hydraulic analyses. The hydrologic analysis for the Omaha Creek study area was performed using historical peak flows obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage (station number 06601000). Flood frequency and magnitude were estimated using the PEAKFQ Log-Pearson Type III analysis software. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System, version 3.1.3, software was used to simulate the water-surface elevation for flood events. The calibrated model was used to compute streamflow-gage stages and inundation elevations for the discharges corresponding to floods of selected probabilities. Results of the hydrologic and hydraulic analyses indicated that flood inundation elevations are substantially lower than from a previous study

Simulation of polar stratospheric clouds in the chemistry-climate-model EMAC via the submodel PSC

The submodel PSC of the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model (EMAC) has been developed to simulate the main types of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC). The parameterisation of the supercooled ternary solutions (STS, type 1b PSC) in the submodel is based on Carslaw et al. (1995b), the thermodynamic approach to simulate ice particles (type 2 PSC) on Marti and Mauersberger (1993). For the formation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles (type 1a PSC) two different parameterisations exist. The first is based on an instantaneous thermodynamic approach from Hanson and Mauersberger (1988), the second is new implemented and considers the growth of the NAT particles with the aid of a surface growth factor based on Carslaw et al. (2002). It is possible to choose one of this NAT parameterisation in the submodel. This publication explains the background of the submodel PSC and the use of the submodel with the goal of simulating realistic PSC in EMAC