Impact of HPV vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: The WHO Director-General has issued a call for action to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To help inform global efforts, we modelled potential human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical screening scenarios in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) to examine the feasibility and timing of elimination at different thresholds, and to estimate the number of cervical cancer cases averted on the path to elimination. METHODS: The WHO Cervical Cancer Elimination Modelling Consortium (CCEMC), which consists of three independent transmission-dynamic models identified by WHO according to predefined criteria, projected reductions in cervical cancer incidence over time in 78 LMICs for three standardised base-case scenarios: girls-only vaccination; girls-only vaccination and once-lifetime screening; and girls-only vaccination and twice-lifetime screening. Girls were vaccinated at age 9 years (with a catch-up to age 14 years), assuming 90% coverage and 100% lifetime protection against HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58. Cervical screening involved HPV testing once or twice per lifetime at ages 35 years and 45 years, with uptake increasing from 45% (2023) to 90% (2045 onwards). The elimination thresholds examined were an average age-standardised cervical cancer incidence of four or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years and ten or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, and an 85% or greater reduction in incidence. Sensitivity analyses were done, varying vaccination and screening strategies and assumptions. We summarised results using the median (range) of model predictions. FINDINGS: Girls-only HPV vaccination was predicted to reduce the median age-standardised cervical cancer incidence in LMICs from 19·8 (range 19·4-19·8) to 2·1 (2·0-2·6) cases per 100 000 women-years over the next century (89·4% [86·2-90·1] reduction), and to avert 61·0 million (60·5-63·0) cases during this period. Adding twice-lifetime screening reduced the incidence to 0·7 (0·6-1·6) cases per 100 000 women-years (96·7% [91·3-96·7] reduction) and averted an extra 12·1 million (9·5-13·7) cases. Girls-only vaccination was predicted to result in elimination in 60% (58-65) of LMICs based on the threshold of four or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, in 99% (89-100) of LMICs based on the threshold of ten or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, and in 87% (37-99) of LMICs based on the 85% or greater reduction threshold. When adding twice-lifetime screening, 100% (71-100) of LMICs reached elimination for all three thresholds. In regions in which all countries can achieve cervical cancer elimination with girls-only vaccination, elimination could occur between 2059 and 2102, depending on the threshold and region. Introducing twice-lifetime screening accelerated elimination by 11-31 years. Long-term vaccine protection was required for elimination. INTERPRETATION: Predictions were consistent across our three models and suggest that high HPV vaccination coverage of girls can lead to cervical cancer elimination in most LMICs by the end of the century. Screening with high uptake will expedite reductions and will be necessary to eliminate cervical cancer in countries with the highest burden. FUNDING: WHO, UNDP, UN Population Fund, UNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Program of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction, Canadian Institute of Health Research, Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Compute Canada, National Health and Medical Research Council Australia Centre for Research Excellence in Cervical Cancer Control

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Real world prognostic utility of platelet lymphocyte ratio and nutritional status in first-line immunotherapy response in stage IV non-small cell lung cancer

Background: Elevated platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and low body mass index (BMI) are associated with inferior survival in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients receiving immunotherapy (IO). We evaluated real-world prognostic utility of PLR, BMI, and albumin level in stage IV NSCLC patients receiving first line (1L) IO. Methods: We identified 75 stage IV patients who received 1L IO therapy at USC Norris Comprehensive Cancer Center and Los Angeles General Medical Center from 2015 to 2022. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS) from time of IO with attention to pre-treatment BMI  180. Results: Median age was 66.5 years with 49 (65.3%) males. 25 (33.3%) had BMI  180. Patients with BMI  28, p-value = 0.042) along with patients with albumin180 (OS: 8.7 m vs. 23.0 m, p = 0.028). Composite BMI  180 had the worst OS, p-value = 0.0331. Multivariate analysis controlling for age, smoking, gender, PD-L1 tumor proportion score (TPS), and histology (adenocarcinoma, squamous, adenosquamous, and large cell) showed that BMI (HR: 0.8726, 95% CI: 0.7892–0.954) and PLR > 180 (HR: 2.48, 95% CI: 1.076–6.055) were significant in OS mortality risk. Conclusion: Patients with a composite of BMI  180 had significantly worse OS. This highlights the importance of screening for poor nutritional status and high PLR to better inform stage IV NSCLC patients receiving IO therapy of their prognosis and supportive care. MicroAbstract: We evaluated real-world prognostic utility of platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), body mass index (BMI), and albumin level in 75 Stage IV NSCLC patients receiving first line IO. Patients with a composite of BMI  180 had significantly worse OS. This highlights the importance of screening for poor nutritional status and high PLR to better inform stage IV NSCLC patients of their prognosis and to emphasize supportive care needs

Pain severity and pain interference during major depressive episodes treated with escitalopram and aripiprazole adjunctive therapy: a CAN-BIND-1 report

Escitalopram may have pain-alleviating effects for patients with comorbid pain and depression. This study aimed to quantify improvements in pain for patients on escitalopram and adjunctive aripiprazole. A secondary analysis of the CAN-BIND-1 trial was conducted which only included participants with a current depressive episode and pain. Participants received escitalopram (10–20mg) for eight weeks and treatment response was defined as a reduction in Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) of at least 50% from baseline. Non-responders at week 8 received adjunctive aripiprazole (2–10mg) for another eight weeks. The Brief Pain Inventory's pain severity (PSC) and pain interference (PIC) composite scores were measured at baseline, week 8, and week 16. Linear regression was used to determine how PSC and PIC differed between treatment responders and non-responders. Eighty-two participants with pain and depression received escitalopram. PSC and PIC decreased significantly regardless of treatment response at week 8, although responders had significantly lower PSC and PIC than non-responders. For the group receiving aripiprazole after week 8, neither PSC nor PIC improved further. Further research is needed to identify interventions that might treat both pain and depression symptoms

Hyper-Editing of Cell-Cycle Regulatory and Tumor Suppressor RNA Promotes Malignant Progenitor Propagation

Adenosine deaminase associated with RNA1 (ADAR1) deregulation contributes to therapeutic resistance in many malignancies. Here we show that ADAR1-induced hyper-editing in normal human hematopoietic progenitors impairs miR-26a maturation, which represses CDKN1A expression indirectly via EZH2, thereby accelerating cell-cycle transit. However, in blast crisis chronic myeloid leukemia progenitors, loss of EZH2 expression and increased CDKN1A oppose cell-cycle transit. Moreover, A-to-I editing of both the MDM2 regulatory microRNA and its binding site within the 3' UTR region stabilizes MDM2 transcripts, thereby enhancing blast crisis progenitor propagation. These data reveal a dual mechanism governing malignant transformation of progenitors that is predicated on hyper-editing of cell-cycle-regulatory miRNAs and the 3' UTR binding site of tumor suppressor miRNAs