Public perceptions of expert disagreement: Bias and incompetence or a complex and random world?

30 page PDFExpert disputes can present laypeople with several challenges including trying to understand why such disputes occur. In an online survey of the U.S. public, we used a psychometric approach to elicit perceptions of expert disputes for 56 forecasts sampled from seven domains (climate change, crime, economics, environment, health, politics, terrorism). People with low education, or with low self-reported knowledge of the topic, were most likely to attribute expert disputes to expert incompetence. People with higher self-reported knowledge tended to attribute disputes to expert bias due to financial or ideological reasons. The more highly educated and cognitively able were most likely to attribute disputes to natural factors, such as the irreducible complexity and randomness of the phenomenon. We highlight several important implications of these results for scientists and risk managers and argue for further research on how people perceive and grapple with expert disputes.We would like to acknowledge the generous support of the National Science Foundation: This material is based upon work supported by NSF under Grant Nos. #1231231 (Robin Gregory, PI; Nathan Dieckmann co-PI) and #0925008 (Nathan Dieckmann, PI) to Decision Research. All views expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone

Physical and mental quality of life in patients with end-stage liver disease and their informal caregivers

Background & Aims Management of end-stage liver disease (ESLD) has implications for not only patients’ quality of life (QOL), but also their caregivers’. We aimed to identify characteristics of patients with ESLD and their caregivers that are associated with QOL. Methods We obtained cross-sectional baseline data from patients and their caregivers (132 dyads; 62% were married or partners), recruited from outpatient hepatology clinics within 2 healthcare centers. Patients were included if their model for end-stage liver disease score was 15 or more; caregivers were identified by the patient as the primary informal caregiver. QOL was measured by the SF-36 and relationship quality using the mutuality scale. We measured uncertainty using the uncertainty in illness scales for patients and caregivers. Multilevel modeling was used to analyze the data. Results Refractory ascites was associated with worse physical QOL for patients (unstandardized beta [B], –9.19; standard error [SE], 2.28) and caregivers (B, –5.41; SE, 2.33); history of hepatic encephalopathy was associated with worse patient physical QOL (B, –3.86; SE, 1.65). High levels of uncertainty were associated with worse physical and mental QOL for both members of the dyads; relationship quality was significantly associated with patient mental QOL (B, 2.73; SE, 1.19). Conclusions Clinicians and researchers should consider the effects of ESLD on caregivers as well as their patients to optimize the QOL for both

Chikungunya risk assessment for europe: recommendations for action

Since March 2005, 255 000 cases of chikungunya fever are estimated to have occurred on the island of Réunion, a French overseas department in the Indian Ocean [1]. An huge increase in estimated cases occurred at the end of December 2005, culminating in an estimated peak incidence of more than 40 000 cases in week 5 of 2006 [2]. Since then, the estimated weekly incidence trend is downwards, although there have been an estimated 3000 new cases per week since week 13 of 2006. In total, 213 deaths have been linked to the disease [1]. In Mayotte, the nearby French territorial collectivity, 5834 cases have been notified [3]. Chikungunya cases have also been reported on other islands in the Indian Ocean, and imported cases have been confirmed in several European countrie

Communicating risk in intelligence forecasts: The consumer's perspective

xv, 178 p. : ill. A print copy of this title is available through the UO Libraries under the call number: KNIGHT HM1101 .D54 2007The main goal of many political and intelligence forecasts is to effectively communicate risk information to decision makers (i.e. consumers). Standard reporting most often consists of a narrative discussion of relevant evidence concerning a threat, and rarely involves numerical estimates of uncertainty (e.g. a 5% chance). It is argued that numerical estimates of uncertainty will lead to more accurate representations of risk and improved decision making on the part of intelligence consumers. Little work has focused on how well consumers understand and use forecasts that include numerical estimates of uncertainty. Participants were presented with simulated intelligence forecasts describing potential terrorist attacks. These forecasts consisted of a narrative summary of the evidence related to the attack and numerical estimates of likelihood and potential harm. The primary goals were to explore how the structure of the narrative summary, the format of likelihood information, and the numerical ability (numeracy) of consumers affected perceptions of intelligence forecasts. Consumers perceived forecasts with numerical estimates of likelihood and potential harm as more useful than forecasts with only a narrative evidence summary. However, consumer's risk and likelihood perceptions were more greatly affected by the narrative evidence summary than the stated likelihood information. These results show that even "precise" numerical estimates of likelihood are not necessarily evaluable by consumers and that perceptions of likelihood are affected by supporting narrative information. Numeracy also moderated the effects of stated likelihood and the narrative evidence summary. Consumers higher in numeracy were more likely to use the stated likelihood information and consumers lower in numeracy were more likely to use the narrative evidence to inform their judgments. The moderating effect of likelihood format and consumer's perceptions of forecasts in hindsight are also explored. Explicit estimates of uncertainty are not necessarily useful to all intelligence consumers, particularly when presented with supporting narrative evidence. How consumers respond to intelligence forecasts depends on the structure of any supporting narrative information, the format of the explicit uncertainty information, and the numerical ability of the individual consumer. Forecasters should be sensitive to these three issues when presenting forecasts to consumers.Adviser: Paul Slovi

Why do scientists disagree? Explaining and improving measures of the perceived causes of scientific disputes.

There has been increasing attention to understanding how laypeople explain disagreements among scientists. In this article, we evaluate the factorial validity and scale/item functioning of a Science Dispute Reasons scale (Study 1) and test specific hypotheses about demographic, individual difference, and topic-related variables that may explain why some reasons are perceived to be more likely than others (Study 2). The final scale included 17 items grouped into three reason factors (Process/Competence, Interests/Values, and Complexity/Uncertainty), which is largely consistent with previous research. We find a mixed pattern of global and specific impacts on reason likelihood ratings from a range of variables including political ideology and conspiracist ideation (primary mediated through perceived credibility of science), science knowledge, and topic-related variables such as knowledge of and care about the dispute in question. Overall, science dispute reasons appear to be more strongly driven by attitudes and worldviews as opposed to objective knowledge and skills. These findings represent progress in understanding lay perceptions of the causes of scientific disputes, although much work remains. We discuss the implications of this work and directions for future research

Characterizing public perceptions of social and cultural impacts in policy decisions

10 pagesSocial scientists and community advocates have expressed con- cerns that many social and cultural impacts important to citizens are given insufficient weight by decision makers in public policy decision-making. In two large cross-sectional surveys, we exam- ined public perceptions of a range of social, cultural, health, eco- nomic, and environmental impacts. Findings suggest that valued impacts are perceived through an initial lens that highlights both tangibility (how difficult it is to understand, observe, and make changes to an impact) and scope (how broadly an impact applies). Valued impacts thought to be less tangible and narrower in scope were perceived to have less support by both decision makers and the public. Nearly every valued impact was perceived to have more support from the public than from decision makers, with the exception of three economic considerations (revenues, profits, and costs). The results also demonstrate that many valued impacts do not fit neatly into the single-category distinctions typically used as part of impact assessments and cost–benefit analyses. We pro- vide recommendations for practitioners and suggest ways that these results can foster improvements to the quality and defensi- bility of risk and impact assessments.The preparation of this manuscript was supported by the US NSF under the Division of Social and Economic Sciences award number 1728807 to Decision Research. However, the views expressed in the paper are those of the authors alone

Associations between mother's and children's moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and sedentary time in the family context

The manner in which mothers' and children's moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary time (ST) are associated across different settings (i.e., at home versus outside of the home, on weekdays versus weekends) is not well understood. The purposes of this study were to: (Strong et al., 2005) describe associations between mothers' and children's levels of MVPA and ST, and (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2008) determine how setting and mothers' and children's characteristics moderate the associations. We used baseline data from the University of Michigan Healthy Families baseline data (2013–2015) from 55 mothers who have children in two age groups (3–5.99years [n=25] and 10–12.99years [n=30]) for the analysis. MVPA and ST data were collected using accelerometry over a seven day period. Proportion of time spent in MVPA and ST between 08:00am and 08:59pm was calculated. Mixed-effects models were used to examine associations. After controlling for selected mother and child characteristics and setting variables, MVPA and ST levels were positively associated in mothers and their children (P<0.001). The mother-child associations for MVPA and ST were 1.7 times (β=0.365 versus β=0.216) and 2.2 times (β=0.255 versus β=0.117) stronger, respectively, when both were at home together. The association did not differ by day of the week. The variations by setting underline the importance of developing home-based, family-centered interventions to increase PA and decrease ST. Keywords: Physical activity, Sedentary time, Home environmen

Associations between perceptions of relationship quality and markers of inflammation and insulin resistance among couples coping with cancer

Summary: Among married couples living with breast and prostate cancer, positive perceptions of relationship quality by both survivors and their spouses were associated with lower inflammation or insulin resistance in their partner. Our data support evidence that health within couples is both interdependent and transactional and suggests that one member’s perception of the relationship is associated with biologic changes in one’s partner, leading to better physical health of the couple. These findings may provide a biologic underpinning to observations of an inverse relationship between relational satisfaction and overall mortality and underscore the need for a dyadic approach to health. Purpose: Couples’ health and health behaviors are intertwined, where the health of one partner can influence the health of the other but the biologic underpinnings are not known. We examined the associations between relational health and markers of inflammation and insulin resistance in couples coping with breast or prostate cancer. Methods: Participants (90 cancer survivor-spouse dyads) completed self-report measures of relational health including Dyadic Adjustment Scale-7 (relationship quality), Dyadic Coping Inventory (communication), and shared physical activity, as well as Community Health Activities Model Program for Seniors (individual physical activity). Inflammation (C-reactive protein (CRP)) and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) were measured in serum samples. Structural equation modeling including demographic and clinical covariate controls was used to estimate separate actor and partner effects of relationship quality, communication, and physical activity on CRP and HOMA-IR. Results: Participants were aged 63.1 ± 10.4 years with an average relationship duration of 30.0 ± 1.1 years. Higher survivor perceived relationship quality was associated with lower spouse CRP (b = − 0.07; 95%CI: − 0.13, − 0.01), whereas higher spouse perceived relationship quality was associated with lower survivor HOMA-IR (b = − 0.07; 95%CI: − 0.13, − 0.03). There were no other significant actor or partner effects observed. Conclusions: Among cancer survivor-spouse dyads, how one member of the couple perceives the quality of the relationship impacts disease biomarkers in the other, providing preliminary evidence for biological linkage between relational health and chronic disease risk. Implications for Cancer Survivors: Relationship quality may positively influence biomarkers of inflammation and insulin resistance in couples coping with breast and prostate cancer. Dyadic approaches to optimize survivorship health may be warranted. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03630354, 08/14/2018; Open Science Framework (https://bit.ly/3S4rUtJ).Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute12 month embargo; published: 26 November 2022This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]