The demographic factor in Russia's eastern territories

"Contemporary Russia is enjoying a relative economic growth due to the increase of oil and gas prices, as well as the wave of stabilization, which is a customary phenomenon after a time of trouble. However, as some analyst realize, there are fewer and fewer beneficiaries of the boom. The census of 2.002 as well as the data of the n ext years show a significant fall of the birth rate and a very high death rate simultaneously. In the first year of our millenium the number of permanent inhabitants of the Russian Federation decreased by 678 thousand whereas in 200 I - by 781,8 thousand, which makes the demographic situation of contemporary Russia quite dramatic:"(...

Russia, Eastern Europe and Central European EU members after the Ukrainian crisis : alternative options of international behaviors

The Ukrainian crisis provoked controversial behaviors in Eastern Europe. Russia's annexation of Crimea and its support for the rebel republics revealed specific interests, which focus on regaining control over the area rather than economic profits or political stability whereas Central European actors target at building a buffer zone including Ukraine. The situation is equally intelligible in terms of all major descriptive paradigms and allows to draw several scenarios of foreseeable behaviors

Russia, Eastern Europe and Central European EU Members after the Ukrainian Crisis. Alternative Options of International Behaviors

The Ukrainian crisis provoked controversial behaviors in Eastern Europe. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its support for the rebel republics revealed specific interests, which focus on regaining control over the area rather than economic profits or political stability whereas Central European actors target at building a buffer zone including Ukraine. The situation is equally intelligible in terms of all major descriptive paradigms and allows to draw several scenarios of foreseeable behaviors

Buffer territories in Polish-Russian relations : the case of Belarus

The notion of buffer territories is understood as referring either to buffer zones (whose status is usually reflected in international documents) or to states and semistate subjects existing between bigger and usually antagonistic powers. Belarus has sometimes been described as a buffer country both in its pre-sovereign version and after 1991. In several moments of Belarusian history, especially after 1918, neighboring powers tended to treat the area as a part of a bigger creation: either as a part of Russia (Soviet Russia and Germany) or as a segment of Bigger Lithuania (Poland and Lithuania). Those speculations, based on false geopolitical perceptions, turned ou to be a mistake in all cases. The failure of the Belarusian People's Republic led to the unnatural division of the nation, which resulted not only in the miserable conditions it had to overcome but in strengthening the area of potential conflict between powers as well. Today's Republic of Belarus despite its semi-authoritarian system and connections with the Russian Federation within the Eurasian structures provides a good example of a state which gradually works out its independent position in international relations

Antyzachodni populizm w Federacji Rosyjskiej a jej polityka zagraniczna

Z wprowadzenia: "W powszechnej opinii, ale także w większości opracowań, utarło się raczej słuszne przekonanie, że polityka zagraniczna Rosji bardziej niż gdzie indziej na świecie jest czystą grą, obmyślaną przez elitę buldogów kłębiących się pod dywanem. Innymi słowy, woluntaryzm władzy wykonawczej oraz (w myśl strukturalnego realizmu Waltza) obiektywny kształt ładu międzynarodowego, całkowicie determinują tę politykę i że czynniki wewnętrzne, takie jak np. ruchy oddolne w okresie wojny wietnamskiej w USA, w żadnym wypadku nie mogą wpłynąć na jej kierunek. O ile jednak opinia ta jest rzeczywiście trafna w odniesieniu do wielu okresów funkcjonowania państwa rosyjskiego, o tyle ignorowanie czynnika wewnętrznego w całej rozciągłości byłoby lekkomyślne, albowiem wpływ gniewu ludu na wektory polityki zagranicznej Rosji niewątpliwie miał i nadal ma poważny wpływ na zabiegi rosyjskiej dyplomacji i kształtowanie twardych realiów stanowiących jej wsparcie i bazę. Niebagatelną rolę w owej presji oddolnej odgrywały i odgrywają ruchy o charakterze populistycznym."(...

Demography as a security strategy factor in Poland and the Russian Federation

The study focuses on the major perceptions of demographic security in Poland and Russia, regarded as an aspect of both social and state security. Demographics as a political topic has been increasingly more often exploited as a key theme in official narratives and practical policies. The similarities in the demographic dynamics in both countries, as well as conditional failures of demographic policies, may not necessarily result from evident mistakes, but are probably a result of a complex set of social factors, including the regularities of demographic development in the past. It is quite clear, however, that the Polish political narratives and declared set of state objectives concentrate rather on the social sphere, whereas the Russian rhetoric and policy are clearly more state oriented