Supply driven mortgage choice

Variable mortgage contracts dominate the UK mortgage market (Miles, 2004). The dominance of the variable rate mortgage contracts has important consequences for the transmission mechanism of monetary policy decisions and systemic risks (Khandani et al., 2012; Fuster and Vickery, 2013). This raises an obvious concern that a mortgage market such as that in the UK, where the major proportion of mortgage debt is either at a variable or fixed for less than two years rate (Badarinza, et al., 2013; CML, 2012), is vulnerable to alterations in the interest rate regime. Theoretically, mortgage choice is determined by demand and supply factors. So far, most of the existing literature has focused on the demand side perspective, and what is limited is consideration of supply side factors in empirical investigation on mortgage choice decisions. This paper uniquely explores whether supply side factors may partially explain observed/ex-post mortgage type decisions. Empirical results detect that lenders’ profit motives and mortgage funding/pricing issues may have assisted in preferences toward variable rate contracts. Securitisation is found to positively impact upon gross mortgage lending volumes while negatively impacting upon the share of variable lending flows. This shows that an increase in securitisation not only improves liquidity in the supply of mortgage funds, but also has the potential to shift mortgage choices toward fixed mortgage debt. The policy implications may involve a number of measures, including reconsideration of the capital requirements for the fixed, as opposed to the variable rate mortgage debt, growing securitisation and optimisation of the mortgage pricing policies

Robustness Through Regime Flips in Collapsing Ecological Networks

© 2019, Crown. There has been considerable progress in our perception of organized complexity in recent years. Recurrent debates on the dynamics and stability of complex systems have provided several insights, but it is very difficult to find identifiable patterns in the relationship between complex network structure and dynamics. Traditionally an arena for theoreticians, much of this research has been invigorated by demonstration of alternate stable states in real world ecosystems such as lakes, coral reefs, forests and grasslands. In this work, we use topological connectivity attributes of eighty six ecological networks and link these with random and targeted perturbations, to obtain general patterns of behaviour of complex real world systems. We have analyzed the response of each ecological network to individual, grouped and cascading extinctions, and the results suggest that most networks are robust to loss of specialists until specific thresholds are reached in terms of network geodesics. If the extinctions persist beyond these thresholds, a state change or ‘flip’ occurs and the structural properties are altered drastically, although the network does not collapse. As opposed to simpler or smaller networks, we find larger networks to contain multiple states that may in turn, ensure long-term persistence, suggesting that complexity can endow resilience to ecosystems. The concept of critical transitions in ecological networks and the implications of these findings for complex systems characterized by networks are likely to be profound with immediate significance for ecosystem conservation, invasion biology and restoration ecology.Non

A 4% Geometric Distance to the Galaxy NGC4258 from Orbital Motions in a Nuclear Gas Disk

The water maser in the mildly active nucleus in the nearby galaxy NGC4258 traces a thin, nearly edge-on, subparsec-scale Keplerian disk. Using the technique of very long baseline interferometry, we have detected the proper motions of these masers as they sweep in front of the central black hole at an orbital velocity of about 1100 km/s. The average maser proper motion of 31.5 microarcseconds per year is used in conjunction with the observed acceleration of the masers to derive a purely geometric distance to the galaxy of 7.2 +- 0.3 Mpc. This is the most precise extragalactic distance measured to date, and, being independent of all other distance indicators, is likely to play an important role in calibrating the extragalactic distance scale.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures. Accepted for publication in Natur

Coexisting conical bipolar and equatorial outflows from a high-mass protostar

The BN/KL region in the Orion molecular cloud is an archetype in the study of the formation of stars much more massive than the Sun. This region contains luminous young stars and protostars, but it is difficult to study because of overlying dust and gas. Our basic expectations are shaped to some extent by the present theoretical picture of star formation, the cornerstone of which is that protostars acrete gas from rotating equatorial disks, and shed angular momentum by ejecting gas in bipolar outflows. The main source of the outflow in the BN/KL region may be an object known as radio source I, which is commonly believed to be surrounded by a rotating disk of molecular material. Here we report high-resolution observations of silicon monoxide (SiO) and water maser emission from the gas surrounding source I; we show that within 60 AU (about the size of the Solar System), the region is dominated by a conical bipolar outflow, rather than the expected disk. A slower outflow, close to the equatorial plane of the protostellar system, extends to radii of 1,000 AU.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures. Accepted by Nature. To appear December 199

Subtidal macrozoobenthos communities from northern Chile during and post El Niño 1997–1998

Despite a large amount of climatic and oceanographic information dealing with the recurring climate phenomenon El Niño (EN) and its well known impact on diversity of marine benthic communities, most published data are rather descriptive and consequently our understanding of the underlying mechanisms and processes that drive community structure during EN are still very scarce. In this study, we address two questions on the effects of EN on macrozoobenthic communities: (1) how does EN affect species diversity of the communities in northern Chile? and (2) is EN a phenomenon that restarts community assembling processes by affecting species interactions in northern Chile? To answer these questions, we compared species diversity and co-occurrence patterns of soft-bottoms macrozoobenthos communities from the continental shelf off northern Chile during (March 1998) and after (September 1998) the strong EN event 1997–1998. The methods used varied from species diversity and species co-occurrence analyses to multivariate ordination methods. Our results indicate that EN positively affects diversity of macrozoobenthos communities in the study area, increasing the species richness and diversity and decreasing the species dominance. EN represents a strong disturbance that affects species interactions that rule the species assembling processes in shallow-water, sea-bottom environments

Transcription profiling reveals potential mechanisms of dysbiosis in the oral microbiome of rhesus macaques with chronic untreated SIV infection.

A majority of individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have inadequate access to antiretroviral therapy and ultimately develop debilitating oral infections that often correlate with disease progression. Due to the impracticalities of conducting host-microbe systems-based studies in HIV infected patients, we have evaluated the potential of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infected rhesus macaques to serve as a non-human primate model for oral manifestations of HIV disease. We present the first description of the rhesus macaque oral microbiota and show that a mixture of human commensal bacteria and "macaque versions" of human commensals colonize the tongue dorsum and dental plaque. Our findings indicate that SIV infection results in chronic activation of antiviral and inflammatory responses in the tongue mucosa that may collectively lead to repression of epithelial development and impact the microbiome. In addition, we show that dysbiosis of the lingual microbiome in SIV infection is characterized by outgrowth of Gemella morbillorum that may result from impaired macrophage function. Finally, we provide evidence that the increased capacity of opportunistic pathogens (e.g. E. coli) to colonize the microbiome is associated with reduced production of antimicrobial peptides

Gas-Phase Ambient Air Contaminants Exhibit Significant Dioxin-like and Estrogen-like Activity in Vitro

Several adverse health effects, such as respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity, have been linked to exposure to particulate matter in ambient air; however, the biologic activity of gas-phase ambient organic air contaminants has not been examined as thoroughly. Using aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR)–based and estrogen receptor (ER)–based cell bioassay systems, we assessed the dioxin-like and estrogenic activities of gas-phase organic ambient air contaminants compared with those of particulate-phase contaminants using samples collected between seasons over 2 years from an urban and a rural location in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada. The concentration of the sum (∑) of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, which was highest in the gas phase, was 10–100 times more abundant than that of ∑polychlorinated biphenyls, ∑nitro-polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and ∑organochlorine pesticides, and 10(3) to 10(4) times more abundant than ∑polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/dibenzofurans. Gas-phase samples induced significant AHR- and ER-dependent gene expression. The activity of the gas-phase samples was greater than that of the particulate-phase samples in the estrogen assay and, in one case, in the AHR assay. We found no strong associations between either summer or winter seasons or urban or rural locations in the relative efficacy of the extracts in either the ER or AHR assay despite differences in chemical composition, concentrations, and abundance. Our results suggest that mechanistic studies of the health effects of ambient air must consider gas and particulate phases because chemicals present in both phases can affect AHR and ER signaling pathways

Determining the neurotransmitter concentration profile at active synapses

Establishing the temporal and concentration profiles of neurotransmitters during synaptic release is an essential step towards understanding the basic properties of inter-neuronal communication in the central nervous system. A variety of ingenious attempts has been made to gain insights into this process, but the general inaccessibility of central synapses, intrinsic limitations of the techniques used, and natural variety of different synaptic environments have hindered a comprehensive description of this fundamental phenomenon. Here, we describe a number of experimental and theoretical findings that has been instrumental for advancing our knowledge of various features of neurotransmitter release, as well as newly developed tools that could overcome some limits of traditional pharmacological approaches and bring new impetus to the description of the complex mechanisms of synaptic transmission

Ancestry of the Iban Is Predominantly Southeast Asian: Genetic Evidence from Autosomal, Mitochondrial, and Y Chromosomes

Humans reached present-day Island Southeast Asia (ISEA) in one of the first major human migrations out of Africa. Population movements in the millennia following this initial settlement are thought to have greatly influenced the genetic makeup of current inhabitants, yet the extent attributed to different events is not clear. Recent studies suggest that south-to-north gene flow largely influenced present-day patterns of genetic variation in Southeast Asian populations and that late Pleistocene and early Holocene migrations from Southeast Asia are responsible for a substantial proportion of ISEA ancestry. Archaeological and linguistic evidence suggests that the ancestors of present-day inhabitants came mainly from north-to-south migrations from Taiwan and throughout ISEA approximately 4,000 years ago. We report a large-scale genetic analysis of human variation in the Iban population from the Malaysian state of Sarawak in northwestern Borneo, located in the center of ISEA. Genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers analyzed here suggest that the Iban exhibit greatest genetic similarity to Indonesian and mainland Southeast Asian populations. The most common non-recombining Y (NRY) and mitochondrial (mt) DNA haplogroups present in the Iban are associated with populations of Southeast Asia. We conclude that migrations from Southeast Asia made a large contribution to Iban ancestry, although evidence of potential gene flow from Taiwan is also seen in uniparentally inherited marker data