Predicting Diameter at Breast Height from Stump Measurements of Removed Trees to Estimate Cuttings, Illegal Loggings and Natural Disturbances

Predicting diameter at breast height (DBH) of trees from stump information may be necessary to reconstruct silvicultural practices, to assess harvested timber and wood, or to estimate forest products’ losses caused by illegal cuttings or natural disasters (disturbances). A model to predict DBH of felled trees was developed by the first Italian National Forest Inventory in 1985 (IFNI85). The model distinguished between the two broad groups of conifers and broadleaves and used stump diameter as the sole quantitative variable. Using an original dataset containing data from about 1200 trees of sixteen species recorded throughout Italy, we assessed the performance of that model. To improve the prediction of the DBH of removed trees over large areas and for multiple species, we developed new models using the same dataset. Performance of the new models was tested through indices computed on cross-validated data obtained through the leave-one-out method. A new model that performs better than the old one was finally selected. Compared to the old NFI model, the selected model improved DBH prediction for fourteen species up to 31.28%. This study proved that species specification and stump height are variables needed to improve the models’ performance and suggested that data collection should be continued to get enhanced models, accurate for different ecological and stand conditions

Comparison of methods used in European National Forest Inventories for the estimation of volume increment: towards harmonisation

International audienceAbstractKey messageThe increment estimation methods of European NFIs were explored by means of 12 essential NFI features. The results indicate various differences among NFIs within the commonly acknowledged methodological frame. The perspectives for harmonisation at the European level are promising.ContextThe estimation of increment is implemented differently in European National Forest Inventories (NFIs) due to different historical origins of NFIs and sampling designs and field assessments accommodated to country-specific conditions. The aspired harmonisation of increment estimation requires a comparison and an analysis of NFI methods.AimsThe objective was to investigate the differences in volume increment estimation methods used in European NFIs. The conducted work shall set a basis for harmonisation at the European level which is needed to improve information on forest resources for various strategic processes. MethodsA comprehensive enquiry was conducted during Cost Action FP1001 to explore the methods of increment estimation of 29 European NFIs. The enquiry built upon the preceding Cost Action E43 and was complemented by an analysis of literature to demonstrate the methodological backgrounds. ResultsThe comparison of methods revealed differences concerning the NFI features such as sampling grids, periodicity of assessments, permanent and temporary plots, use of remote sensing, sample tree selection, components of forest growth, forest area changes, sampling thresholds, field measurements, drain assessment, involved models and tree parts included in estimates. ConclusionIncrement estimation methods differ considerably among European NFIs. Their harmonisation introduces new issues into the harmonisation process. Recent accomplishments and the increased use of sample-based inventories in Europe make perspectives for harmonised reporting of increment estimation promising

Abdominal drainage after elective colorectal surgery: propensity score-matched retrospective analysis of an Italian cohort

background: In italy, surgeons continue to drain the abdominal cavity in more than 50 per cent of patients after colorectal resection. the aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of abdominal drain placement on early adverse events in patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery. methods: a database was retrospectively analysed through a 1:1 propensity score-matching model including 21 covariates. the primary endpoint was the postoperative duration of stay, and the secondary endpoints were surgical site infections, infectious morbidity rate defined as surgical site infections plus pulmonary infections plus urinary infections, anastomotic leakage, overall morbidity rate, major morbidity rate, reoperation and mortality rates. the results of multiple logistic regression analyses were presented as odds ratios (OR) and 95 per cent c.i. results: a total of 6157 patients were analysed to produce two well-balanced groups of 1802 patients: group (A), no abdominal drain(s) and group (B), abdominal drain(s). group a versus group B showed a significantly lower risk of postoperative duration of stay >6 days (OR 0.60; 95 per cent c.i. 0.51-0.70; P < 0.001). a mean postoperative duration of stay difference of 0.86 days was detected between groups. no difference was recorded between the two groups for all the other endpoints. conclusion: this study confirms that placement of abdominal drain(s) after elective colorectal surgery is associated with a non-clinically significant longer (0.86 days) postoperative duration of stay but has no impact on any other secondary outcomes, confirming that abdominal drains should not be used routinely in colorectal surgery

Bowel preparation for elective colorectal resection: multi-treatment machine learning analysis on 6241 cases from a prospective Italian cohort

background current evidence concerning bowel preparation before elective colorectal surgery is still controversial. this study aimed to compare the incidence of anastomotic leakage (AL), surgical site infections (SSIs), and overall morbidity (any adverse event, OM) after elective colorectal surgery using four different types of bowel preparation. methods a prospective database gathered among 78 Italian surgical centers in two prospective studies, including 6241 patients who underwent elective colorectal resection with anastomosis for malignant or benign disease, was re-analyzed through a multi-treatment machine-learning model considering no bowel preparation (NBP; No. = 3742; 60.0%) as the reference treatment arm, compared to oral antibiotics alone (oA; No. = 406; 6.5%), mechanical bowel preparation alone (MBP; No. = 1486; 23.8%), or in combination with oAB (MoABP; No. = 607; 9.7%). twenty covariates related to biometric data, surgical procedures, perioperative management, and hospital/center data potentially affecting outcomes were included and balanced into the model. the primary endpoints were AL, SSIs, and OM. all the results were reported as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). results compared to NBP, MBP showed significantly higher AL risk (OR 1.82; 95% CI 1.23-2.71; p = .003) and OM risk (OR 1.38; 95% CI 1.10-1.72; p = .005), no significant differences for all the endpoints were recorded in the oA group, whereas MoABP showed a significantly reduced SSI risk (OR 0.45; 95% CI 0.25-0.79; p = .008). conclusions MoABP significantly reduced the SSI risk after elective colorectal surgery, therefore representing a valid alternative to NBP

Harmonised statistics and maps of forest biomass and increment in Europe.

peer reviewedForest biomass is an essential resource in relation to the green transition and its assessment is key for the sustainable management of forest resources. Here, we present a forest biomass dataset for Europe based on the best available inventory and satellite data, with a higher level of harmonisation and spatial resolution than other existing data. This database provides statistics and maps of the forest area, biomass stock and their share available for wood supply in the year 2020, and statistics on gross and net volume increment in 2010-2020, for 38 European countries. The statistics of most countries are available at a sub-national scale and are derived from National Forest Inventory data, harmonised using common reference definitions and estimation methodology, and updated to a common year using a modelling approach. For those counties without harmonised statistics, data were derived from the State of Europe's Forest 2020 Report at the national scale. The maps are coherent with the statistics and depict the spatial distribution of the forest variables at 100 m resolution

An individual-tree linear mixed-effects model for predicting the basal area increment of major forest species in Southern Europe

Aims of the study. Assessment of growth is essential to support sustainability of forest management and forest policies. The objective of the study was to develop a species-specific model to predict the annual increment of tree basal area through variables recorded by forest surveys, to assess forest growth directly or in the context of more complex forest growth and yield simulation models.Area of the study. Italy.Material and methods. Data on 34638 trees of 31 different forest species collected in 5162 plots of the Italian National Forest Inventory were used; the data were recorded between 2004 and 2006. To account for the hierarchical structure of the data due to trees nested within plots, a two-level mixed-effects modelling approach was used.Main results. The final result is an individual-tree linear mixed-effects model with species as dummy variables. Tree size is the main predictor, but the model also integrates geographical and topographic predictors and includes competition. The model fitting is good (McFadden’s Pseudo-R2 0.536), and the variance of the random effect at the plot level is significant (intra-class correlation coefficient 0.512). Compared to the ordinary least squares regression, the mixed-effects model allowed reducing the mean absolute error of estimates in the plots by 64.5% in average.Research highlights. A single tree-level model for predicting the basal area increment of different species was developed using forest inventory data. The data used for the modelling cover 31 species and a great variety of growing conditions, and the model seems suitable to be applied in the wider context of Southern Europe.   Keywords: Tree growth; forest growth modelling; forest inventory; hierarchical data structure; Italy.Abbreviations used: BA - basal area; BAI – five-year periodic basal area increment; BALT - basal area of trees larger than the subject tree; BASPratio - ratio of subject tree species basal area to stand basal area; BASTratio - ratio of subject tree basal area to stand basal area; CRATIO - crown ratio; DBH – diameter at breast height ; DBH0– diameter at breast height corresponding to five years before the survey year; DBHt– diameter at breast height measured in the survey year; DI5 - five-year, inside bark, DBH increment; HDOM - dominant height; LULUCF - Land Use, Land Use Changes and Forestry; ME - mean error; MAE - mean absolute error; MPD - mean percent deviation; MPSE - mean percent standard error; NFI(s) - National Forest Inventory/ies; OLS - ordinary least squares regression; RMSE - root mean squared error; UNFCCC - United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change

An individual-tree linear mixed-effects model for predicting the basal area increment of major forest species in Southern Europe

Aims of the study. Assessment of growth is essential to support sustainability of forest management and forest policies. The objective of the study was to develop a species-specific model to predict the annual increment of tree basal area through variables recorded by forest surveys, to assess forest growth directly or in the context of more complex forest growth and yield simulation models. Area of the study. Italy. Material and methods. Data on 34638 trees of 31 different forest species collected in 5162 plots of the Italian National Forest Inventory were used; the data were recorded between 2004 and 2006. To account for the hierarchical structure of the data due to trees nested within plots, a two-level mixed-effects modelling approach was used. Main results. The final result is an individual-tree linear mixed-effects model with species as dummy variables. Tree size is the main predictor, but the model also integrates geographical and topographic predictors and includes competition. The model fitting is good (McFadden’s Pseudo-R2 0.536), and the variance of the random effect at the plot level is significant (intra-class correlation coefficient 0.512). Compared to the ordinary least squares regression, the mixed-effects model allowed reducing the mean absolute error of estimates in the plots by 64.5% in average. Research highlights. A single tree-level model for predicting the basal area increment of different species was developed using forest inventory data. The data used for the modelling cover 31 species and a great variety of growing conditions, and the model seems suitable to be applied in the wider context of Southern Europ

A stand-level model derived from National Forest Inventory data to predict periodic annual volume increment of forests in Italy

<p>A model was developed for predicting the periodic annual volume increment (PAI) of forests using variables commonly recorded through field surveys or the remote sensing. The model was developed using the Italian National Forest Inventory (INFC2005) data, publicly available at <a href="http://www.inventarioforestale.org" target="_blank">www.inventarioforestale.org</a>. Data from 5707 plots were split into two groups. The first was used for fitting the model; the second was used for cross validation. Model reliability for applications at the local, in the Alpine and Mediterranean regions, and at the country level was tested. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to investigate the effects of entering inaccurate values of the number of trees per hectare, one of the predictors of the final model, that may occur in case of biased estimates from the remote sensing. During model calibration, the highest proportion of increment variation was captured using forest category (FC) as dummy variable and, in this respect, this study supports the classification of forests on ecological basis as a stratification criterion in environmental sampling. The model explained 72% of PAI and it predicted annual increment at plot level with no statistical difference to the observed value in any FC, at the country level.</p