The changing regulatory environment for speculative housebuilding and the construction of core competencies for brownfleld development

Speculative housebuilding in the United Kingdom faces an ever tighter regulatory environment owing to the increasing impact of the sustainable development agenda. For example, 60% of all new homes in England are now expected to be constructed on previously developed land or provided through the conversion of existing buildings. As speculative housebuilders are responsible for about 80% of all new dwellings built in the United Kingdom, the achievement of this important government target is critically dependent on the ability and willingness of the private sector to respond to public policy. By exploring the main components of the residential development process, the author investigates how far speculative housebuilding will need to change to ensure the successful implementation of the government's brownfield housing target. He suggests that those speculative housebuilders that are enthusiastically building up core competencies in brownfield housing are likely to emerge as the market leaders of the future whereas those companies that continue to rely on past practices and technologies will face an uncertain future as greenfield development opportunities begin to reduce

Synthesized trade-off analysis of flood control solutions under future deep uncertainty: An application to the central business district of Shanghai.

Coastal mega-cities will face increasing flood risk under the current protection standard because of future climate change. Previous studies seldom evaluate the comparative effectiveness of alternative options in reducing flood risk under the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall. Long-term planning to manage flood risk is further challenged by uncertainty in socioeconomic factors and contested stakeholder priorities. In this study, we conducted a knowledge co-creation process together with infrastructure experts, policy makers, and other stakeholders to develop an integrated framework for flexible testing of multiple flood-risk mitigation strategies under the condition of deep uncertainties. We implemented this framework to the reoccurrence scenarios in the 2050s of a record-breaking extreme rainfall event in central Shanghai. Three uncertain factors, including precipitation, urban rain island effect and the decrease of urban drainage capacity caused by land subsidence and sea level rise, are selected to build future extreme inundation scenarios in the case study. The risk-reduction performance and cost-effectiveness of all possible solutions are examined across different scenarios. The results show that drainage capacity decrease caused by sea-level rise and land subsidence will contribute the most to the rise of future inundation risk in central Shanghai. The combination of increased green area, improved drainage system, and the deep tunnel with a runoff absorbing capacity of 30% comes out to be the most favorable and robust solution which can reduce the future inundation risk by 85% (±8%). This research indicates that to conduct a successful synthesized trade-off analysis of alternative flood control solutions under future deep uncertainty is bound to be a knowledge co-creation process of scientists, decision makers, field experts, and other stakeholders