Long-term care cost drivers and expenditure projection to 2036 in Hong Kong

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hong Kong's rapidly ageing population, characterised by one of the longest life expectancies and the lowest fertility rate in the world, is likely to drive long-term care (LTC) expenditure higher. This study aims to identify key cost drivers and derive quantitative estimates of Hong Kong's LTC expenditure to 2036.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We parameterised a macro actuarial simulation with data from official demographic projections, Thematic Household Survey 2004, Hong Kong's Domestic Health Accounts and other routine data from relevant government departments, Hospital Authority and other LTC service providers. Base case results were tested against a wide range of sensitivity assumptions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Total projected LTC expenditure as a proportion of GDP reflected secular trends in the elderly dependency ratio, showing a shallow dip between 2004 and 2011, but thereafter yielding a monotonic rise to reach 3.0% by 2036. Demographic changes would have a larger impact than changes in unit costs on overall spending. Different sensitivity scenarios resulted in a wide range of spending estimates from 2.2% to 4.9% of GDP. The availability of informal care and the setting of formal care as well as associated unit costs were important drivers of expenditure.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The "demographic window" between the present and 2011 is critical in developing policies to cope with the anticipated burgeoning LTC burden, in concert with the related issues of health care financing and retirement planning.</p

Indigenous well-being in four countries: An application of the UNDP'S Human Development Index to Indigenous Peoples in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Canada, the United States, Australia, and New Zealand consistently place near the top of the United Nations Development Programme's <it>Human Development Index (HDI) </it>rankings, yet all have minority Indigenous populations with much poorer health and social conditions than non-Indigenous peoples. It is unclear just how the socioeconomic and health status of Indigenous peoples in these countries has changed in recent decades, and it remains generally unknown whether the overall conditions of Indigenous peoples are improving and whether the gaps between Indigenous peoples and other citizens have indeed narrowed. There is unsettling evidence that they may not have. It was the purpose of this study to determine how these gaps have narrowed or widened during the decade 1990 to 2000.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Census data and life expectancy estimates from government sources were used to adapt the Human Development Index (HDI) to examine how the broad social, economic, and health status of Indigenous populations in these countries have changed since 1990. Three indices – life expectancy, educational attainment, and income – were combined into a single HDI measure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Between 1990 and 2000, the HDI scores of Indigenous peoples in North America and New Zealand improved at a faster rate than the general populations, closing the gap in human development. In Australia, the HDI scores of Indigenous peoples decreased while the general populations improved, widening the gap in human development. While these countries are considered to have high human development according to the UNDP, the Indigenous populations that reside within them have only medium levels of human development.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The inconsistent progress in the health and well-being of Indigenous populations over time, and relative to non-Indigenous populations, points to the need for further efforts to improve the social, economic, and physical health of Indigenous peoples.</p

Exploring the interplay between Buddhism and career development : a study of highly skilled women workers in Sri Lanka

This article adopts a socio cultural lens to examine the role of Buddhism in highly skilled women workers’ careers in Sri Lanka. While Buddhism enabled women’s career development by giving them strength to cope with difficult situations in work, it also seemed to restrict their agency and constrain their career advancement. Based on our findings, we argue that being perceived as a good Buddhist woman worked as a powerful form of career capital for the respondents in our sample, who used their faith to combat gender disadvantage in their work settings

Impact of intercensal population projections and error of closure on breast cancer surveillance: examples from 10 California counties

INTRODUCTION: In 2001, data from the California Cancer Registry suggested that breast cancer incidence rates among non-Hispanic white (nHW) women in Marin County, California, had increased almost 60% between 1991 and 1999. This analysis examines the extent to which these and other breast cancer incidence trends could have been impacted by bias in intercensal population projections. METHOD: We obtained population projections for the year 2000 projected from the 1990 census from the California Department of Finance (DOF) and population counts from the 2000 US Census for nHW women living in 10 California counties and quantified age-specific differences in counts. We also computed age-adjusted incidence rates of invasive breast cancer in order to examine and quantify the impact of differences between the population data sources. RESULTS: Differences between year 2000 DOF projections and year 2000 census counts varied by county and age and ranged from underestimates of 60% to overestimates of 64%. For Marin County, the DOF underestimated the number of nHW women aged 45 to 64 years by 32% compared to the 2000 US census. This difference produced a significant 22% discrepancy between breast cancer incidence rates calculated using the two population data sources. In Los Angeles and Santa Clara counties, DOF-based incidence rates were significantly lower than rates based on census data. Rates did not differ significantly by population data source in the remaining seven counties examined. CONCLUSION: Although year 2000 population estimates from the DOF did not differ markedly from census counts at the state or county levels, greater discrepancies were observed for race-stratified, age-specific groups within counties. Because breast cancer incidence rates must be calculated with age-specific data, differences between population data sources at the age-race level may lead to mis-estimation of breast cancer incidence rates in county populations affected by these differences, as was observed in Marin County. Although intercensal rates based on population projections are important for timely breast cancer surveillance, these rates are prone to bias due to the error of closure between population projections and decennial census population counts. Intercensal rates should be interpreted with this potential bias in mind

'Parasitic invasions' or sources of good governance: constraining foreign competition in Hong Kong banking, 1956-81

This paper investigates the operation and impact of the moratorium on new banking licences imposed in Hong Kong in 1965 and the claims that foreign banks destabilised the banking system and drained resources from the colony. First it examines foreign banks' attempts to circumvent the moratorium through claims of special circumstances and buying interests in local banks, and secondly it examines the efforts of incumbents to extend barriers to non-bank financial institutions and to branches of foreign banks. The general conclusions are that while the moratorium was aimed at increasing the stability of the banking system, it had the effect of decreasing the regulatory breadth of the government, and reducing incentives for mergers and acquisitions that might have improved governance

Livelihoods after land reform in South Africa

Over the past few decades, Zimbabwe, Namibia and South Africa have pursued redistributive land reform as a means to address rural poverty. The Livelihoods after Land Reform (LaLR) study was carried out between 2007 and 2009, to understand the livelihood and poverty reduction outcomes of land reform in each of the three countries. The South African component focused on Limpopo province, and investigated land reform processes, trajectories of change and outcomes in thirteen detailed case studies. This paper summarizes some of the main findings from the South African study, and briefly compares them with findings from Namibia and Zimbabwe. The paper argues that a fundamental problem affecting land reform in both South Africa and Namibia is the uncritical application of the Large-Scale Commercial Farming (LSCF) model, which has led to unworkable project design and/or projects that are irrelevant to the circumstances of the rural poor. Nevertheless, some ‘beneficiaries’ have experienced modest improvements in their livelihoods, often through abandoning or amending official project plans.Web of Scienc

Colombo Twin and Singleton Study (CoTASS): A description of a population based twin study of mental disorders in Sri Lanka

Background: The Sri Lankan twin registry is one of the first to be established in a developing country, and its design has ensured sampling from a wide range of environmental conditions. It thus has great potential to examine environmental and genetic influences on diverse phenotypes, including psychiatric disorders, in the context of a diversity of environmental exposures, which may not have been fully explored in previous twin studies in developed countries. This paper presents the rationale for the study, describes its context, and the methods for twin ascertainment and data collection. Methods: A population-based twin register was established in the Colombo district of Sri Lanka using infrastructure designed to periodically update the electoral register. We invited a subsample from this register to participate in the project on common mental disorders, using random ascertainment. A separate non-twin sample was randomly selected from the geographical areas where twins were found. Home interviewers collected diagnostic information on common mental disorders, as well as environmental exposures including life events, socio-economic conditions, and the impact of the civil war and the Tsunami of 2004. Results: We identified 19,302 individuals in the creation of the population based twin register. We randomly selected a subsample, of whom 4,387 were eligible to participate and 4,024 agreed to be interviewed ( including data on 1,954 complete pairs of twins and 5 sets of triplets). Those who refused consent had a similar mean age and sex ratio to those who were interviewed. We invited 2,485 singletons to participate and 2,019 were interviewed. Conclusion: Initial exploration of the data suggests the samples are very representative of the Colombo district of Sri Lanka, so we have created a unique resource for understanding the influences on mental disorders in developing countries, and to compare to the influences found in developed countries

Work-related complaints of arm, neck and shoulder among computer office workers in an Asian country: prevalence and validation of a risk-factor questionnaire

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Complaints of arm, neck and/or shoulders (CANS) affects millions of computer office workers. However its prevalence and associated risk factors in developing countries are yet to be investigated, due to non availability of validated assessment tools for these countries. We evaluated the 1-year prevalence of CANS among computer office workers in Sri Lanka and tested the psychometric properties of a translated risk factor questionnaire.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Computer office workers at a telecommunication company in Sri Lankan received the Sinhalese version of the validated Maastricht Upper Extremity Questionnaire (MUEQ). The 94 items in the questionnaire covers demographic characteristics, CANS and evaluates potential risk factors for CANS in six domains. Forward and backward translation of the MUEQ was done by two independent bi-lingual translators. One-year prevalence of CANS and psychometric properties of the Sinhalese questionnaire were investigated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Response rate was 97.7% (n = 440). Males were 42.7%. Mean age was 38.2 ± 9.5 years. One-year prevalence of CANS was 63.6% (mild-53.7% and severe-10%). The highest incidences were for neck (36.1%) and shoulder (34.3%) complaints. Two factors for each domain in the scale were identified by exploratory factor analysis (i.e. work-area, computer-position, incorrect body posture, bad-habits, skills and abilities, decision-making, time-management, work-overload, work-breaks, variation in work, work-environment and social-support). Calculation of internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.43-0.82) and cross-validation provided evidence of reliability and lack of redundancy of items.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>One year prevalence of CANS in the study population corresponds strongly with prevalence in developed countries. Translated version of the MUEQ has satisfactory psychometric properties for it to be used to assess work-related risk factors for development of CANS among Sri Lankan computer office workers.</p