Semi-automatic selection of summary statistics for ABC model choice

A central statistical goal is to choose between alternative explanatory models of data. In many modern applications, such as population genetics, it is not possible to apply standard methods based on evaluating the likelihood functions of the models, as these are numerically intractable. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a commonly used alternative for such situations. ABC simulates data x for many parameter values under each model, which is compared to the observed data xobs. More weight is placed on models under which S(x) is close to S(xobs), where S maps data to a vector of summary statistics. Previous work has shown the choice of S is crucial to the efficiency and accuracy of ABC. This paper provides a method to select good summary statistics for model choice. It uses a preliminary step, simulating many x values from all models and fitting regressions to this with the model as response. The resulting model weight estimators are used as S in an ABC analysis. Theoretical results are given to justify this as approximating low dimensional sufficient statistics. A substantive application is presented: choosing between competing coalescent models of demographic growth for Campylobacter jejuni in New Zealand using multi-locus sequence typing data

Minimization of the vibration energy of thin-plate structure

An optimization method is proposed to reduce the vibration of thin plate structures. The method is based on a finite element shell analysis, a modal analysis, and a structural optimization method. In the finite element analysis, a triangular shell element with 18 dof is used. In the optimization, the overall vibration energy of the structure is adopted as the objective function, and it is minimized at the given exciting frequency by varying the thickness of the elements. The technique of modal analysis is used to derive the sensitivity of the vibration energy with respect to the design variables. The sensitivity is represented by the sensitivities of both eigenvalues and eigenvectors. The optimum value is computed by the gradient projection method and a unidimensional search procedure under the constraint condition of constant weight. A computer code, based on the proposed method, is developed and is applied to design problems using a beam and a plate as test cases. It is confirmed that the vibration energy is reduced at the given exciting frequency. For the beam excited by a frequency slightly less than the fundamental natural frequency, the optimized shape is close to the beam of uniform strength

Optimum design of a gearbox for low vibration

A computer program was developed for designing a low vibration gearbox. The code is based on a finite element shell analysis, a modal analysis, and a structural optimization method. In the finite element analysis, a triangular shell element with 18 degrees-of-freedom is used. In the optimization method, the overall vibration energy of the gearbox is used as the objective function and is minimized at the exciting frequency by varying the finite element thickness. Modal analysis is used to derive the sensitivity of the vibration energy with respect to the design variable. The sensitivity is representative of both eigenvalues and eigenvectors. The optimum value is computed by the gradient projection method and a unidimensional search procedure under the constraint condition of constant weight. The computer code is applied to a design problem derived from an experimental gearbox in use at the NASA Lewis Research Center. The top plate and two side plates of the gearbox are redesigned and the contribution of each surface to the total vibration is determined. Results show that optimization of the top plate alone is effective in reducing total gearbox vibration

A Long-Term Hydrologically-Based Data Set of Land Surface Fluxes and States for the Conterminous United States

A frequently encountered difficulty in assessing model-predicted land–atmosphere exchanges of moisture and energy is the absence of comprehensive observations to which model predictions can be compared at the spatial and temporal resolutions at which the models operate. Various methods have been used to evaluate the land surface schemes in coupled models, including comparisons of model-predicted evapotranspiration with values derived from atmospheric water balances, comparison of model-predicted energy and radiative fluxes with tower measurements during periods of intensive observations, comparison of model-predicted runoff with observed streamflow, and comparison of model predictions of soil moisture with spatial averages of point observations. While these approaches have provided useful model diagnostic information, the observation-based products used in the comparisons typically are inconsistent with the model variables with which they are compared—for example, observations are for points or areas much smaller than the model spatial resolution, comparisons are restricted to temporal averages, or the spatial scale is large compared to that resolved by the model. Furthermore, none of the datasets available at present allow an evaluation of the interaction of the water balance components over large regions for long periods. In this study, a model-derived dataset of land surface states and fluxes is presented for the conterminous United States and portions of Canada and Mexico. The dataset spans the period 1950–2000, and is at a 3-h time step with a spatial resolution of ⅛ degree. The data are distinct from reanalysis products in that precipitation is a gridded product derived directly from observations, and both the land surface water and energy budgets balance at every time step. The surface forcings include precipitation and air temperature (both gridded from observations), and derived downward solar and longwave radiation, vapor pressure deficit, and wind. Simulated runoff is shown to match observations quite well over large river basins. On this basis, and given the physically based model parameterizations, it is argued that other terms in the surface water balance (e.g., soil moisture and evapotranspiration) are well represented, at least for the purposes of diagnostic studies such as those in which atmospheric model reanalysis products have been widely used. These characteristics make this dataset useful for a variety of studies, especially where ground observations are lacking

The 1984 - 1987 Solar Maximum Mission event list

Information on solar burst and transient activity observed by the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) during 1984-1987 pointed observations is presented. Data from the following SMM experiments are included: (1) gamma ray spectrometer; (2) hard x-ray burst spectrometer; (3) flat crystal spectrometer; (4) bent crystal spectrometer; (5) ultraviolet spectrometer polarimeter; and (6) coronograph/polarimeter. Correlative optical, radio, and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) x ray data are also presented. Where possible, bursts or transients observed in the various wavelengths were grouped into discrete flare events identified by unique event numbers. Each event carries a qualifier denoting the quality or completeness of the observations. Spacecraft pointing coordinates and flare site angular displacement values from sun center are also included

Using Sensor Metadata Streams to Identify Topics of Local Events in the City

In this paper, we study the emerging Information Retrieval (IR) task of local event retrieval using sensor metadata streams. Sensor metadata streams include information such as the crowd density from video processing, audio classifications, and social media activity. We propose to use these metadata streams to identify the topics of local events within a city, where each event topic corresponds to a set of terms representing a type of events such as a concert or a protest. We develop a supervised approach that is capable of mapping sensor metadata observations to an event topic. In addition to using a variety of sensor metadata observations about the current status of the environment as learning features, our approach incorporates additional background features to model cyclic event patterns. Through experimentation with data collected from two locations in a major Spanish city, we show that our approach markedly outperforms an alternative baseline. We also show that modelling background information improves event topic identification

CO excitation in four IR luminous galaxies

The correlation between the CO and far infrared luminosities of spiral galaxies is well established. The luminosity ration, L sub FIR/L sub CO in IR luminous active galaxies is, however, systematically five to ten times higher than in ordinary spirals and molecular clouds in our Galaxy. Furthermore, the masses of molecular hydrogen in luminous galaxies are large, M (H2) approx. equals 10(exp 10) solar magnitude, which indicates the observed luminosity ratios are due to an excess of infrared output, rather than a deficiency of molecular gas. These large amounts of molecular gas may fuel luminous galaxies through either star formation or nuclear activity. This interpretation rests on applying the M (H2)/L sub CO ratio calibrated in our Galaxy to galaxies with strikingly different luminosity ratios. But are the physical conditions of the molecular gas different in galaxies with different luminosity ratios. And, if so, does the proportionality between CO and H2 also vary among galaxies. To investigate these questions researchers observed CO (2 to 1) and (1 to 0) emission from four luminous galaxies with the Institute for Radio Astronomy in the Millimeter range (IRAM) 30 m telescope. Researchers conclude that most of the CO emission from these Arp 193, Arp 220, and Mrk 231 arises in regions with moderate ambient densities similar to the clouds in the Milky Way molecular ring. The emission is neither from dense hot cloud cores nor from the cold low density gas characteristic of the envelopes of dark clouds

The 1988 Solar Maximum Mission event list

Information on solar burst and transient activity observed by the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) during 1988 pointed observations is presented. Data from the following SMM experiments are included: (1) gamma ray spectrometer; (2) hard x ray burst spectrometer; (3) flat crystal spectrometers; (4) bent crystal spectrometer; (5) ultraviolet spectrometer polarimeter; and (6) coronagraph/polarimeter. Correlative optical, radio, and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) x ray data are also presented. Where possible, bursts, or transients observed in the various wavelengths were grouped into discrete flare events identified by unique event numbers. Each event carries a qualifier denoting the quality or completeness of the observation. Spacecraft pointing coordinates and flare site angular displacement values from sun center are also included

Results of NASA/Army transmission research

Since 1970 the NASA Lewis Research Center and the U.S. Army Aviation Systems Command have shared an interest in advancing the technology for helicopter propulsion systems. In particular, that portion of the program that applies to the drive train and its various mechanical components are outlined. The major goals of the program were (and continue to be) to increase the life, reliability, and maintainability, reduce the weight, noise, and vibration, and maintain the relatively high mechanical efficiency of the gear train. Major historical milestones are reviewed, significant advances in technology for bearings, gears, and transmissions are discussed, and the outlook for the future is presented. The reference list is comprehensive