A vector error correction forecasting model of the U.S. economy

Any research or policy analysis in economics must be consistent with the time-series properties of observed macroeconomic data. Numerous previous studies of such time series reinforce the need to specify correctly a model's multivariate stochastic structure. This paper discusses in detail the speciation of a vector error correction forecasting model that is anchored by long-run equilibrium relationships suggested by economic theory. The model includes six variables - the CPI, the implicit price deflator for GDP, real money balances (MI), the federal funds rate, the yield on long-term (10-year) government bonds, and real GDP - and four cointegrating vectors. Model forecasts during the 1990's are compared to those made by the Federal Reserve and by private forecasters.Forecasting ; Econometric models

Abradable compressor and turbine seals, volume 1

The application and advantages of abradable coatings as gas-path seals in a general aviation turbine engine were evaluated for use on the high-pressure compressor, the high-pressure turbine, and the low-pressure turbine shrouds. Topics covered include: (1) the initial selection of candidate materials for interim full-scale engine testing; (2) interim engine testing of the initially selected materials and additional candidate materials; (3) the design of the component required to adapt the hardware to permit full-scale engine testing of the most promising materials; (4) finalization of the fabrication methods used in the manufacture of engine test hardware; and (5) the manufacture of the hardware necessary to support the final full-scale engine tests

BIOMASS FOR ELECTRICITY AND PROCESS HEAT AT ETHANOL PLANTS

Published in: Applied Engineering in Agriculture, Vol. 22(5): 723-728Biomass, Process heat, Ethanol production, Electricity, Combined heat and power, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Abradable compressor and turbine seals, volume 2

The applications and advantages of abradable coatings as gas path seals in a general aviation turbofan engine were investigated. Abradable materials were evaluated for the high pressure radial compressor and the axial high and low pressure turbine shrouds

Short-term studies underestimate 30-generation changes in a butterfly metapopulation

Most studies of rare and endangered species are based on work carried out within one generation, or over one to a few generations of the study organism. We report the results of a study that spans 30 generations (years) of the entire natural range of a butterfly race that is endemic to 35 km2 of north Wales, UK. Short-term studies (surveys in single years and dynamics over 4 years) of this system led to the prediction that the regional distribution would be quite stable, and that colonization and extinction dynamics would be relatively unimportant. However, a longer-term study revealed unexpectedly high levels of population turnover (local extinction and colonization), affecting 18 out of the 20 patches that were occupied at any time during the period. Modelling the system (using the 'incidence function model' (IFM) for metapopulations) also showed higher levels of colonization and extinction with increasing duration of the study. The longer-term dynamics observed in this system can be compared, at a metapopulation level, with the increased levels of variation observed with increasing time that have been observed in single populations. Long-term changes may arise from local changes in the environment that make individual patches more or less suitable for the butterfly, or from unusual colonization or extinction events that take metapopulations into alternative states. One implication is that metapopulation and population viability analyses based on studies that cover only a few animal or plant generations may underestimate extinction threats

COHORT ANALYSIS OF FOOD CONSUMPTION: A CASE OF RAPIDLY CHANGING JAPANESE CONSUMPTION

Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Teaching Control Programming Using Programmable Automation Controllers

Introductory control programming was included as a required course for agricultural systems students. A programmable automation controller (PAC) was programmed with a flowchart paradigm to monitor and control applications. An ex post facto research design was used, with a questionnaire to obtain student feedback. The PAC instructional unit and student feedback are described. Ninety‐two percent of students agreed the PAC unit of the course helped improve their problem‐solving skills