Index Cohesive Force Analysis Reveals That the US Market Became Prone to Systemic Collapses Since 2002

BACKGROUND: The 2007-2009 financial crisis, and its fallout, has strongly emphasized the need to define new ways and measures to study and assess the stock market dynamics. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The S&P500 dynamics during 4/1999-4/2010 is investigated in terms of the index cohesive force (ICF--the balance between the stock correlations and the partial correlations after subtraction of the index contribution), and the Eigenvalue entropy of the stock correlation matrices. We found a rapid market transition at the end of 2001 from a flexible state of low ICF into a stiff (nonflexible) state of high ICF that is prone to market systemic collapses. The stiff state is also marked by strong effect of the market index on the stock-stock correlations as well as bursts of high stock correlations reminiscence of epileptic brain activity. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The market dynamical states, stability and transition between economic states was studies using new quantitative measures. Doing so shed new light on the origin and nature of the current crisis. The new approach is likely to be applicable to other classes of complex systems from gene networks to the human brain

Has the Euro changed business cycle synchronization? Evidence from the core and the periphery

Using a Bayesian dynamic factor model, I examine the comovement of output, investmentand consumption growth among Euro area countries before and after the introduction of theEuro. For that purpose, I compare a pre-Euro period (19911998) to a Euro period(20002010) and identify a common Euro factor for each period separately. I find thatthe comovement of main macroeconomic variables and the common factor increases forcore Eurozone countries from the first to the second period, while it decreases for mostperipheral economies. This can be interpreted as a rise in business cycle synchronizationfor the core and a respective decline for the periphery.Different to the implications made by the endogeneity argument of currency areas(Frankel and Rose, 1998), my evidence suggest that the introduction of the Euro hasfostered imbalances between core and peripheral Eurozone countries

Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis

This paper explores the question of whether market participants could have or should have anticipated the large increase in foreclosures that occurred in 2007 and 2008. Most of these foreclosures stem from loans originated in 2005 and 2006, leading many to suspect that lenders originated a large volume of extremely risky loans during this period. However, the authors show that while loans originated in this period did carry extra risk factors, particularly increased leverage, underwriting standards alone cannot explain the dramatic rise in foreclosures. Focusing on the role of house prices, the authors ask whether market participants underestimated the likelihood of a fall in house prices or the sensitivity of foreclosures to house prices. The authors show that, given available data, market participants should have been able to understand that a significant fall in prices would cause a large increase in foreclosures, although loan]level (as opposed to ownership]level) models would have predicted a smaller rise than actually occurred. Examining analyst reports and other contemporary discussions of the mortgage market to see what market participants thought would happen, the authors find that analysts, on the whole, understood that a fall in prices would have disastrous consequences for the market but assigned a low probability to such an outcome

Resources, Capabilities, and Routines in Public Organizations

States, state agencies, multilateral agencies, and other non-market actors are relatively under-studied in strategic management and organization science. While important contributions to the study of public actors have been made within the agency-theoretic and transaction-cost traditions, there is little research in political economy that builds on resource-based, dynamic capabilities, and behavioral approaches to the firm. Yet public organizations can be characterized as stocks of human and non-human resources, including routines and capabilities; they can possess excess capacity in these resources; and they may grow and diversify in predictable patterns according to behavioral and Penrosean logic. This paper shows how resource-based, dynamic capabilities, and behavioral approaches to understanding public agencies and organizations shed light on their nature and governance