Multimodal Hazard Rate for Relapse in Breast Cancer: Quality of Data and Calibration of Computer Simulation

Much has occurred since our 2010 report in Cancers. In the past few years we published several extensive reviews of our research so a brief review is all that will be provided here. We proposed in the earlier reports that most relapses in breast cancer occur within 5 years of surgery and seem to be associated with some unspecified manner of surgery-induced metastatic initiation. These events can be identified in relapse data and are correlated with clinical data. In the last few years an unexpected mechanism has become apparent. Retrospective analysis of relapse events by a Brussels anesthesiology group reported that a perioperative NSAID analgesic seems to reduce early relapses five-fold. We then proposed that primary surgery produces a transient period of systemic inflammation. This has now been identified by inflammatory markers in serum post mastectomy. That could explain the early relapses. It is possible that an inexpensive and non-toxic NSAID can reduce breast cancer relapses significantly. We want to take this opportunity to discuss database quality issues and our relapse hazard data in some detail. We also present a demonstration that the computer simulation can be calibrated with Adjuvant-on-line, an often used clinical tool for prognosis in breast cancer

Distant metastasis dynamics following subsequent surgeries after primary breast cancer removal

Background: The aim of the research was to separate the distant metastasis (DM) enhancing effect due to breast tumour removal from that due to surgical manoeuvre by itself. Methods: DM dynamics following surgery for ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR), contralateral breast cancer (CBC) and delayed reconstruction (REC), which was performed after the original breast cancer surgical removal, was analysed. A total of 338 patients with IBTR, 239 with CBC and 312 with REC were studied. Results: The DM dynamics following IBTR, CBC and REC, when assessed with time origin at their surgical treatment, is similar to the analogous pattern following primary tumour removal, with a first major peak at about 18 months and a second lower one at about 5 years from surgery. The time span between primary tumour removal and the second surgery is influential on DM risk levels for IBTR and CBC patients, not for REC patients. Conclusions: The role of breast tumour removal is different from the role of surgery by itself. Our findings suggest that the major effect of reconstructive surgery is microscopic metastasis acceleration, while breast tumour surgical removal (either primary or IBTR or CBC) involves both tumour homeostasis interruption and microscopic metastasis growth acceleration. The removal of a breast tumour would eliminate its homeostatic restrains on metastatic foci, thus allowing metastasis development, which, in turn, would be supported by the forwarding action of the mechanisms triggered by the surgical wounding.publishedVersio

Tumor dormancy and surgery-driven interruption of dormancy in breast cancer: learning from failures

Primary tumor removal, usually considered intrinsically beneficial, can perturb metastatic homeostasis, and for some patients results in the acceleration of metastatic cancer. The continuous-growth model is required to yield to an interrupted-growth model, the implications of which are episodes of tumor dormancy. This Review analyzes the recent evolution of two paradigms related to the development of breast cancer metastases. The evolution of the paradigms described herein is supported by a growing body of findings from experimental models, and is required to explain breast cancer recurrence dynamics for patients undergoing surgery with or without adjuvant chemotherapyOther Research Uni

Surgery Triggers Outgrowth of Latent Distant Disease in Breast Cancer: An Inconvenient Truth?

We review our work over the past 14 years that began when we were first confronted with bimodal relapse patterns in two breast cancer databases from different countries. These data were unexplainable with the accepted continuous tumor growth paradigm. To explain these data, we proposed that metastatic breast cancer growth commonly includes periods of temporary dormancy at both the single cell phase and the avascular micrometastasis phase. We also suggested that surgery to remove the primary tumor often terminates dormancy resulting in accelerated relapses. These iatrogenic events are apparently very common in that over half of all metastatic relapses progress in that manner. Assuming this is true, there should be ample and clear evidence in clinical data. We review here the breast cancer paradigm from a variety of historical, clinical, and scientific perspectives and consider how dormancy and surgery-driven escape from dormancy would be observed and what this would mean. Dormancy can be identified in these diverse data but most conspicuous is the sudden synchronized escape from dormancy following primary surgery. On the basis of our findings, we suggest a new paradigm for early stage breast cancer. We also suggest a new treatment that is meant to stabilize and preserve dormancy rather than attempt to kill all cancer cells as is the present strategy

Menopausal Status Dependence of the Timing of Breast Cancer Recurrence after Surgical Removal of the Primary Tumour

Introduction: Information on the metastasis process in breast cancer patients undergoing primary tumour removal may be extracted from an analysis of the timing of clinical recurrence. Methods: The hazard rate for local-regional and/or distant recurrence as the first event during the first 4 years after surgery was studied in 1173 patients undergoing mastectomy alone as primary treatment for operable breast cancer. Subset analyses were performed according to tumour size, axillary nodal status and menopausal status. Results: A sharp two-peaked hazard function was observed for node-positive pre-menopausal patients, whereas results from node-positive post-menopausal women always displayed a single broad peak. The first narrow peak among pre-menopausal women showed a very steep rise to a maximum about 8–10 months after mastectomy. The second peak was considerably broader, reaching its maximum at 28–30 months. Post-menopausal patients displayed a wide, nearly symmetrical peak with maximum risk at about 18–20 months. Peaks displayed increasing height with increasing axillary lymph node involvement. No multi-peaked pattern was evident for either pre-menopausal or post-menopausal node-negative patients; however, this finding should be considered cautiously because of the limited number of events. Tumour size influenced recurrence risk but not its timing. Findings resulting from the different subsets of patients were remarkably coherent and each observed peak maintained the same position on the time axis in all analysed subsets. Conclusions: The risk of early recurrence for node positive patients is dependent on menopausal status. The amount of axillary nodal involvement and the tumour size modulate the risk value at any given time. For pre-menopausal node-positive patients, the abrupt increase of the first narrow peak of the recurrence risk suggests a triggering event that synchronises early risk. We suggest that this event is the surgical removal of the primary tumour. The later, broader, more symmetrical risk peaks indicate that some features of the corresponding metastatic development may present stochastic traits. A metastasis development model incorporating tumour dormancy in specific micro-metastatic phases, stochastic transitions between them and sudden acceleration of the metastatic process by surgery can explain these risk dynamics

Recent translational research: computational studies of breast cancer

The combination of mathematics – queen of sciences – and the general utility of computers has been used to make important inroads into insight-providing breast cancer research and clinical aids. These developments are in two broad areas. First, they provide useful prognostic guidelines for individual patients based on historic evidence. Second, by suggesting numeric tumor growth laws that are correlated to clinical parameters, they permit development of biologically relevant theories and comparison with patient data to help us understand complex biologic processes. These latter studies have produced many new ideas that are testable in clinical trials. In this review we discuss these developments from a clinical perspective, and ask whether and how they translate into useful tools for patient treatment

The recurrence pattern following delayed breast reconstruction after mastectomy for breast cancer suggests a systemic effect of surgery on occult dormant micrometastases

The purpose of this study was to characterize the recurrence dynamics in breast cancer patients after delayed reconstruction. We hypothesized that surgical reconstruction might stimulate dormant micrometastases and reduce time to recurrence. All mastectomy breast cancer patients with delayed surgical reconstruction at Haukeland University Hospital, between 1977 and 2007, n = 312, were studied. Our control group consisted of 1341 breast cancer patients without reconstruction. For each case, all patients in the control group with identical T and N stages and age ±2 years were considered. A paired control was randomly selected from this group. 10 years after primary surgery, 39 of the cases had relapsed, compared to 52 of the matched controls. The reconstructed group was analyzed for relapse dynamics after mastectomy; the first peak in relapses was similarly timed, but smaller than for the controls, while the second peak was similar in time and size. Second, the relapse pattern was analyzed with reconstruction as the starting point. A peak in recurrences was found after 18 months, and a lower peak at the 5th–6th year. The height of the peak correlated with the extent of surgery and initial T and N stages. Timing of the peak was not affected, neither was the cumulative effect. The relapse pattern, when time origin is placed both at mastectomy and at reconstruction, is bimodal with a peak position at the same time points, at 2 years and at 5–6 years. The timing of the transition from dormant micrometastases into clinically detectable macrometastases might be explained by an enhancing effect of surgery.publishedVersio

p53 status identifies triple negative breast cancer patients who do not respond to adjuvant chemotherapy

Genomic analysis and protein expression assimilate triple-negative breast cancers (TNBC) with basal-like breast tumors. TNBCs, however, have proved to encompass also tumors with normal-like phenotype and known to have favorable prognosis and to respond to chemotherapy. In a recent paper, we have provided evidence that p53 status is able to subdivide TNBCs into two distinct subgroups with different outcome, and consistent with basal- and normal-like phenotypes. Based on this finding, we explored the contribution of p53 status in predicting the response to adjuvant CMF or CMF followed doxorubicin chemotherapy of a group of TNBC patients. Results indicated that TNBC patients with a p53-positive tumor had a shorter relapse-free and overall survival than patients carrying a p53-negative TNBC, corroborating our hypothesis about the relationship between TNBC phenotype (basal-like versus normal-like) and p53 status as predictor of response to antracycline/CMF-based chemotherapy

Hypothesis: Induced angiogenesis after surgery in premenopausal node-positive breast cancer patients is a major underlying reason why adjuvant chemotherapy works particularly well for those patients

BACKGROUND: We suggest that surgical extirpation of primary breast cancer among other effects accelerates relapse for some premenopausal node-positive patients. These accelerated relapses occur within 10 months of surgery for untreated patients. The mechanism proposed is a stimulation of angiogenesis for distant dormant micrometastases. This has been suggested as one of the mechanisms to explain the mammography paradox for women aged 40–49 years. We could imagine that it also plays a role in adjuvant chemotherapy effectiveness since, perhaps not coincidentally, this is most beneficial for premenopausal node-positive patients. HYPOTHESIS: We speculate that there is a burst of angiogenesis of distant dormant micrometastases after surgery in approximately 20% of premenopausal node-positive patients. We also speculate that this synchronizes them into a temporal highly chemosensitive state and is the underlying reason why adjuvant chemotherapy works particularly well for that patient category. Furthermore, this may explain why cancer in younger patients is more often 'aggressive'. TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS: Stimulation of dormant micrometastases by primary tumor removal is known to occur in animal models. However, we need to determine whether it happens in breast cancer. Transient circulating levels of angioactive molecules and serial high-resolution imaging studies of focal angiogenesis might help. IMPLICATIONS: Short-course cytotoxic chemotherapy after surgery has probably reached its zenith, and other strategies, perhaps antiangiogenic methods, are needed to successfully treat more patients. In addition, the hypothesis predicts that early detection, which is designed to find more patients without involved lymph nodes, may not be a synergistic strategy with adjuvant chemotherapy, which works best with positive lymph node patients

Recurrence dynamics does not depend on the recurrence site

Introduction: The dynamics of breast cancer recurrence and death, indicating a bimodal hazard rate pattern, has been confirmed in various databases. A few explanations have been suggested to help interpret this finding, assuming that each peak is generated by clustering of similar recurrences and different peaks result from distinct categories of recurrence. Methods: The recurrence dynamics was analysed in a series of 1526 patients undergoing conservative surgery at the National Cancer Institute of Milan, Italy, for whom the site of first recurrence was recorded. The study was focused on the first clinically relevant event occurring during the follow up (ie, local recurrence, distant metastasis, contralateral breast cancer, second primary tumour), the dynamics of which was studied by estimating the specific hazard rate.Results The hazard rate for any recurrence (including both local and distant disease relapses) displayed a bimodal pattern with a first surge peaking at about 24 months and a second peak at almost 60 months. The same pattern was observed when the whole recurrence risk was split into the risk of local recurrence and the risk of distant metastasis. However, the hazard rate curves for both contralateral breast tumours and second primary tumours revealed a uniform course at an almost constant level. When patients with distant metastases were grouped by site of recurrence (soft tissue, bone, lung or liver or central nervous system), the corresponding hazard rate curves displayed the typical bimodal pattern with a first peak at about 24 months and a later peak at about 60 months.Conclusions The bimodal dynamics for early stage breast cancer recurrence is again confirmed, providing support to the proposed tumour-dormancy-based model. The recurrence dynamics does not depend on the site of metastasis indicating that the timing of recurrences is generated by factors influencing the metastatic development regardless of the seeded organ. This finding supports the view that the disease course after surgical removal of the primary tumour follows a common pathway with well-defined steps and that the recurrence risk pattern results from inherent features of the metastasis development process, which are apparently attributable to tumour cells