A conceptual model for anticipating the impact of landscape evolution on groundwater recharge in degrading permafrost environments

Temperatures in the arctic and subarctic are rising at more than twice the rate of the global average, driving the accelerated thawing of permafrost across the region. The impacts of permafrost degradation have been studied in the discontinuous permafrost zone at Umiujaq, in northern Quebec, Canada, for over 30 years, but the effects of changing land cover on groundwater recharge is not well understood. The water table fluctuation method was used to compute groundwater recharge using four years of water level data and soil moisture readings from five field sites characteristic of different stages of permafrost degradation and vegetation invasion. Results indicate that as vegetation grows taller, groundwater recharge increases, likely due to increased snow thickness. Results were then combined with a preexisting conceptual model that describes the evolution from tundra to shrubland and forests to create a new model for describing how groundwater recharge is affected by landscape evolution

Hydrogeology of a complex Champlain Sea deposit (Quebec, Canada) : implications for slope stability

The thick sequences of marine clayey deposits which blanket the St. Lawrence Lowlands in south-eastern Canada are highly susceptible to landslides. With 89% of the population of the Province of Quebec living in this region, improving our understanding of the mechanisms causing landslides in these sediments is a matter of public security. To accomplish this goal, instruments were deployed at a field site in Sainte-Anne-de-la-Pérade, Quebec, Canada to monitor atmospheric, soil, and groundwater conditions. Field and laboratory measurements of soil geotechnical and hydraulic properties were also performed. Results indicate that the groundwater and pore pressure dynamics at the site cannot be explained using simplified site conceptual models. Further analysis indicates that groundwater dynamics and pore pressures in the massive clay deposits on-site are determined by (i) the highly-heterogeneous nature of the local geological materials (ii) the contrasting hydraulic and geotechnical properties of these materials, (iii) the presence of two unconfined aquifers at the site, one surficial and one at depth, and (iv), the presence of the Sainte-Anne River. These results were used to create a new conceptual model which illustrates the complex groundwater flow system present on site, and shows the importance of including hydrogeologic context in slope stability analysis

Quantification et réduction des incertitudes associées aux modèles hydrodynamiques de gestion quantitative des eaux souterraines

The sustainable management of aquifers is a growing problem since the end of the 20th century. For groundwater withdrawals to be considered as sustainable, the capture of environmental flow should remain acceptable over a long-term period. Groundwater modeling is an essential tool to move from a reactive management to an anticipatory approach. Hydrodynamic parameters characterizing the aquifers are often poorly constrained by prior information or history matching. The estimation of these parameters by inverse modeling suffers from the non-uniqueness of the solution. This is an issue when predicted values by groundwater model are used to define legal frameworks. A simplified approach for the quantification of uncertainties (linear analysis) is presented as a pragmatic alternative to stochastic methods that cannot be applied to operational groundwater management models. The implementation of a pilot experimental station brings possibility to evaluate different approaches for the estimate of groundwater recharge and hydrodynamic parameters estimation in order to reduce the uncertainty of groundwater management models. A 1D coupled soil-surface model was used to demonstrate that, in the studied context, matrix potential measurements alone appear as sufficient to constrain coupled model-based estimates of recharge. In addition, a joint interpretation of an unconfined aquifer-test and water table fluctuations has been conducted. Reliable estimates of groundwater recharge can be obtained from water level records when considering long recharge events and a consistent value of drainable porosity. This thesis highlights (i) the necessity to use algorithmic methods for parameters estimation and uncertainty quantification for a groundwater management model; (ii) the interest of different methods to collect reliable hydrodynamic parameters and groundwater recharge estimation. This work can be used to support a monitoring network for parameters estimation at a basin scale.La gestion durable des aquifères est une problématique grandissante depuis la fin du 20ème siècle. L'exploitation d’une ressource en eau souterraine est qualifiée de durable lorsque la capture des flux environnementaux est considérée comme acceptable sur le long terme. La modélisation hydrodynamique s'impose comme un outil indispensable pour remplacer une gestion réactive par une approche anticipative. Les paramètres hydrodynamiques qui caractérisent un aquifère et contrôlent les variables de sorties des modèles hydrodynamiques sont souvent mal connus. L’estimation de ces paramètres par la modélisation inverse souffre de la non-unicité de la solution optimale. Une approche simplifiée pour la quantification des incertitudes (analyse linéaire) est présentée comme une alternative pragmatique à des méthodes stochastiques inapplicables pour des modèles opérationnels. A partir de la réalisation d’une station expérimentale pilote, différentes méthodes (parfois complémentaires) ont été évaluées pour contraindre la recharge météorique et les propriétés hydrauliques d’un aquifère afin de réduire l’incertitude prédictive. La réalisation d’un modèle vertical couplé sol-surface a permis de démontrer que, dans le contexte étudié, la tension matricielle apporte suffisamment d’informations afin de contraindre la recharge prédite. Une interprétation conjointe d’un essai de nappe libre et des fluctuations piézométriques a permis une estimation intégrée de la recharge et des paramètres hydrodynamiques de la nappe libre. Ce travail de thèse a ainsi permis (i) de démontrer l’intérêt de disposer de méthodes algorithmiques pour la calibration et la quantification des incertitudes paramétriques pour un modèle hydrodynamique de gestion ; (ii) de mener une réflexion méthodologique sur l’utilisation de méthodes existantes afin d’apporter de l’information complémentaire fiable sur les paramètres hydrodynamiques ainsi que sur la recharge météorique. Ce travail offre des perspectives quant à la mise en place d’un réseau de suivi complet à l’échelle d’un bassin hydrogéologique

Quantification and reduction of quantitative groundwater management models uncertainties

La gestion durable des aquifères est une problématique grandissante depuis la fin du 20ème siècle. L'exploitation d’une ressource en eau souterraine est qualifiée de durable lorsque la capture des flux environnementaux est considérée comme acceptable sur le long terme. La modélisation hydrodynamique s'impose comme un outil indispensable pour remplacer une gestion réactive par une approche anticipative. Les paramètres hydrodynamiques qui caractérisent un aquifère et contrôlent les variables de sorties des modèles hydrodynamiques sont souvent mal connus. L’estimation de ces paramètres par la modélisation inverse souffre de la non-unicité de la solution optimale. Une approche simplifiée pour la quantification des incertitudes (analyse linéaire) est présentée comme une alternative pragmatique à des méthodes stochastiques inapplicables pour des modèles opérationnels. A partir de la réalisation d’une station expérimentale pilote, différentes méthodes (parfois complémentaires) ont été évaluées pour contraindre la recharge météorique et les propriétés hydrauliques d’un aquifère afin de réduire l’incertitude prédictive. La réalisation d’un modèle vertical couplé sol-surface a permis de démontrer que, dans le contexte étudié, la tension matricielle apporte suffisamment d’informations afin de contraindre la recharge prédite. Une interprétation conjointe d’un essai de nappe libre et des fluctuations piézométriques a permis une estimation intégrée de la recharge et des paramètres hydrodynamiques de la nappe libre. Ce travail de thèse a ainsi permis (i) de démontrer l’intérêt de disposer de méthodes algorithmiques pour la calibration et la quantification des incertitudes paramétriques pour un modèle hydrodynamique de gestion ; (ii) de mener une réflexion méthodologique sur l’utilisation de méthodes existantes afin d’apporter de l’information complémentaire fiable sur les paramètres hydrodynamiques ainsi que sur la recharge météorique. Ce travail offre des perspectives quant à la mise en place d’un réseau de suivi complet à l’échelle d’un bassin hydrogéologique.The sustainable management of aquifers is a growing problem since the end of the 20th century. For groundwater withdrawals to be considered as sustainable, the capture of environmental flow should remain acceptable over a long-term period. Groundwater modeling is an essential tool to move from a reactive management to an anticipatory approach. Hydrodynamic parameters characterizing the aquifers are often poorly constrained by prior information or history matching. The estimation of these parameters by inverse modeling suffers from the non-uniqueness of the solution. This is an issue when predicted values by groundwater model are used to define legal frameworks. A simplified approach for the quantification of uncertainties (linear analysis) is presented as a pragmatic alternative to stochastic methods that cannot be applied to operational groundwater management models. The implementation of a pilot experimental station brings possibility to evaluate different approaches for the estimate of groundwater recharge and hydrodynamic parameters estimation in order to reduce the uncertainty of groundwater management models. A 1D coupled soil-surface model was used to demonstrate that, in the studied context, matrix potential measurements alone appear as sufficient to constrain coupled model-based estimates of recharge. In addition, a joint interpretation of an unconfined aquifer-test and water table fluctuations has been conducted. Reliable estimates of groundwater recharge can be obtained from water level records when considering long recharge events and a consistent value of drainable porosity. This thesis highlights (i) the necessity to use algorithmic methods for parameters estimation and uncertainty quantification for a groundwater management model; (ii) the interest of different methods to collect reliable hydrodynamic parameters and groundwater recharge estimation. This work can be used to support a monitoring network for parameters estimation at a basin scale

Estimating groundwater recharge uncertainty from joint application of an aquifer test and the water-table fluctuation method

Specific yield and groundwater recharge of unconfined aquifers are both essential parameters for groundwater modeling and sustainable groundwater development, yet the collection of reliable estimates of these parameters remains challenging. Here, a joint approach combining an aquifer test with application of the water-table fluctuation (WTF) method is presented to estimate these parameters and quantify their uncertainty. The approach requires two wells: an observation well instrumented with a pressure probe for long-term monitoring and a pumping well, located in the vicinity, for the aquifer test. The derivative of observed drawdown levels highlights the necessity to represent delayed drainage from the unsaturated zone when interpreting the aquifer test results. Groundwater recharge is estimated with an event-based WTF method in order to minimize the transient effects of flow dynamics in the unsaturated zone. The uncertainty on groundwater recharge is obtained by the propagation of the uncertainties on specific yield (Bayesian inference) and groundwater recession dynamics (regression analysis) through the WTF equation. A major portion of the uncertainty on groundwater recharge originates from the uncertainty on the specific yield. The approach was applied to a site in Bordeaux (France). Groundwater recharge was estimated to be 335 mm with an associated uncertainty of 86.6 mm at 2σ. By the use of cost-effective instrumentation and parsimonious methods of interpretation, the replication of such a joint approach should be encouraged to provide reliable estimates of specific yield and groundwater recharge over a region of interest. This is necessary to reduce the predictive uncertainty of groundwater management model

Groundwater Flooding on Atolls Caused by Storm Surges: Effects of the Dual-Aquifer Configuration

Storm surges associated with tropical cyclones endanger atolls through groundwater flooding, where groundwater is discharged from the land surface as the sea level rises. Atolls are characterized by a “dual-aquifer” configuration, where recent Holocene sediments unconformably overlie highly permeable Pleistocene limestone, creating an interface called a “Thurber discontinuity.” This study aimed to quantitatively analyze how the dual-aquifer configuration of atolls controls the temporal dynamics of groundwater flooding caused by storm surge. To this end, we ran surface-subsurface coupled synthetic numerical simulations using HydroGeoSphere and compared 12 scenarios with different Thurber discontinuity elevations and hydraulic conductivities of the Pleistocene aquifer (KP). The results showed that the shallower the Thurber discontinuity and the higher the KP value, the higher the maximum water depth in the freshwater swamp on the atoll during the storm surge and the longer the flooding duration. Despite the effects of the different dual-aquifer configurations, the initial water table elevation and salinity distribution were almost identical in all the simulation cases. These findings suggest that accurate information on the dual-aquifer configuration is necessary to evaluate the potential risk of groundwater flooding on atolls accompanying storm surges. Furthermore, the results indicate that groundwater flooding caused by storm surges substantially contributes to cyclone-driven flooding on atolls, and hence, it should not be neglected in flood predictions to avoid underestimation.The authors are grateful to the three anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and invaluable suggestions. This study was financially supported by a JSPS Bilateral Joint Research Project (JPJSBP-120219908). S. Tajima thanks the financial support of the World-Leading Innovative Graduate Study Program in Proactive Environmental Studies (WINGS-PES) at the University of Tokyo.Peer reviewe

HGS-PDAF (version 1.0): a modular data assimilation framework for an integrated surface and subsurface hydrological model

Abstract. This article describes a modular ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) system which is developed for an integrated surface–subsurface hydrological model. The software environment for DA is the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF), which provides various assimilation algorithms like the ensemble Kalman filters, non-linear filters, 3D-Var and combinations among them. The integrated surface–subsurface hydrological model is HydroGeoSphere (HGS), a physically based modelling software for the simulation of surface and variably saturated subsurface flow, as well as heat and mass transport. The coupling and capabilities of the modular DA system are described and demonstrated using an idealised model of a geologically heterogeneous alluvial river–aquifer system with drinking water production via riverbank filtration. To demonstrate its modularity and adaptability, both single and multivariate assimilations of hydraulic head and soil moisture observations are demonstrated in combination with individual and joint updating of multiple simulated states (i.e. hydraulic heads and water saturation) and model parameters (i.e. hydraulic conductivity). With the integrated model and this modular DA framework, we have essentially developed the hydrologically and DA-wise robust toolbox for developing the basic model for operational management of coupled surface water–groundwater resources. </jats:p

Bias in hydraulic head measurements from multilevel vibrating-wire piezometers with excessively-permeable backfill

An extensive network of multilevel vibrating-wire piezometers (VWP) was recently created to monitor the spatial and temporal variation of pore pressures (and hydraulic heads) in the landslide-prone post-glacial marine clay slopes in Québec, Canada. Some of the VWP installations used well-sorted crushed stone as well backfill between bentonite plugs, instead of bentonite pellets or cement-bentonite grout, which could create cause a bias in the hydraulic head measurements due to preferential flow within the backfill (i.e., a hydraulic short circuit). This study uses steady-state 2-D radial coordinate numerical models to quantify the extent of this potential bias, and focuses on the relative importance of the following components: hydraulic conductivity of the crushed stone, length of the backfill intervals, length of the bentonite plugs, magnitude and direction of the vertical gradient, and the degree of vertical and horizontal anisotropy within the clay. Simulation results show that the use of crushed stone as backfill results in measurements of hydraulic head that differ from undisturbed conditions by -0.25 cm to +210 cm, regardless of the values assigned to the parameters of interest. In all cases, the cause of this bias is a series of hydraulic short circuits resulting from preferential flow through the crushed stone intervals