Model selection in historical research using approximate Bayesian computation

Formal Models and History Computational models are increasingly being used to study historical dynamics. This new trend, which could be named Model-Based History, makes use of recently published datasets and innovative quantitative methods to improve our understanding of past societies based on their written sources. The extensive use of formal models allows historians to reevaluate hypotheses formulated decades ago and still subject to debate due to the lack of an adequate quantitative framework. The initiative has the potential to transform the discipline if it solves the challenges posed by the study of historical dynamics. These difficulties are based on the complexities of modelling social interaction, and the methodological issues raised by the evaluation of formal models against data with low sample size, high variance and strong fragmentation. This work examines an alternate approach to this evaluation based on a Bayesian-inspired model selection method. The validity of the classical Lanchester's laws of combat is examined against a dataset comprising over a thousand battles spanning 300 years. Four variations of the basic equations are discussed, including the three most common formulations (linear, squared, and logarithmic) and a new variant introducing fatigue. Approximate Bayesian Computation is then used to infer both parameter values and model selection via Bayes Factors. Results indicate decisive evidence favouring the new fatigue model. The interpretation of both parameter estimations and model selection provides new insights into the factors guiding the evolution of warfare. At a methodological level, the case study shows how model selection methods can be used to guide historical research through the comparison between existing hypotheses and empirical evidence.Funding for this work was provided by the SimulPast Consolider Ingenio project (CSD2010-00034) of the former Ministry for Science and Innovation of the Spanish Government and the European Research Council Advanced Grant EPNet (340828).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Beyond The Thaw A New National Strategy

xi, 247 hl

Reducing the addictiveness of cigarettes

OBJECTIVE—To assess the feasibility of reducing tobacco-caused disease by gradually removing nicotine from cigarettes until they would not be effective causes of nicotine addiction.
DATA SOURCES—Issues posed by such an approach, and potential solutions, were identified from analysis of literature published by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in its 1996 Tobacco Rule, comments of the tobacco industry and other institutions and individuals on the rule, review of the reference lists of relevant journal articles, other government publications, and presentations made at scientific conferences.
DATA SYNTHESIS—The role of nicotine in causing and sustaining tobacco use was evaluated to project the impact of a nicotine reduction strategy on initiation and maintenance of, and relapse to, tobacco use. A range of potential concerns and barriers was addressed, including the technical feasibility of reducing cigarette nicotine content to non-addictive levels, the possibility that compensatory smoking would reduce potential health benefits, and whether such an approach would foster illicit ("black market") tobacco sales. Education, treatment, and research needs to enable a nicotine reduction strategy were also addressed. The Council on Scientific Affairs came to the following conclusions: (a) gradually eliminating nicotine from cigarettes is technically feasible; (b) a nicotine reduction strategy holds great promise in preventing adolescent tobacco addiction and assisting the millions of current cigarette smokers in their efforts to quit using tobacco products; (c) potential problems such as compensatory over-smoking of denicotinised cigarettes and black market sales could be minimised by providing alternate forms of nicotine delivery with less or little risk to health, as part of expanded access to treatment; and (d) such a strategy would need to be accompanied by relevant research and increased efforts to educate consumers and health professionals about tobacco and health.
CONCLUSIONS—The council recommends the following: (a) that cessation of tobacco use should be the goal for all tobacco users; (b) that the American Medical Association continue to support FDA authority over tobacco products, and FDA classification of nicotine as a drug and tobacco products as drug-delivery devices; (c) that research be encouraged on cigarette modifications that may result in less addicting cigarettes; (d) that the FDA require that the addictiveness of cigarettes be reduced within 5-10 years; (e) expanded surveillance to monitor trends in the use of tobacco products and other nicotine-containing products; (f) expanded access to smoking cessation treatment, and strengthening of the treatment infrastructure; and (g) more accurate labelling of tobacco products, including a more meaningful and understandable indication of nicotine content.


Keywords: American Medical Association; addiction; nicotine; smoking cessatio

Methotrexate Decreases Tenofovir Exposure in Antiretroviral-Suppressed Individuals Living With HIV.

BackgroundTo mitigate increased risk of premature cardiovascular disease in antiretroviral therapy (ART) suppressed adults living with HIV (PWH), low-dose methotrexate (LDMTX) was evaluated in a multicenter randomized placebo controlled clinical trial of 176 PWH taking various ART regimens (ACTG A5314). Given shared methotrexate (MTX) and tenofovir (TFV) pharmacokinetic (PK) pathways, a substudy was conducted to investigate whether LDMTX alters TFV exposure.MethodsAdults virally suppressed on ART for >24 weeks were randomized to LDMTX or placebo. The first 66 participants taking a tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-containing regimen underwent intensive PK sampling over 24 hours after the second dose of LDMTX 10 mg or placebo. TFV and MTX levels were quantified using validated mass spectrometry methods. TFV PK between LDMTX and placebo groups were compared and MTX PK was characterized.ResultsForty-eight participants completed this substudy (n = 20 on LDMTX and 28 on placebo). Baseline characteristics were balanced except for protease inhibitor (PI)-use (25% in LDMTX and 43% in placebo groups). For TFV, AUC6 (primary endpoint), and AUC24,imputed, Cmax, and Cmin (secondary endpoints) were on average 22%, and 24%, 27%, and 31% less in the LDMTX versus placebo groups, with reductions in secondary endpoints reaching statistical significance. Additional analyses suggested a greater reduction in the absence of PI although not significant.ConclusionLower TFV AUC24,imputed and Cmax indicates that LDMTX reduces TFV exposure in PWH. However, this change was modest, not warranting a change in TFV dosing at this time. Further studies of TFV PK with LDMTX, especially without PI co-administration, are warranted