Estimates of fire emissions from an active deforestation region in the southern Amazon based on satellite data and biogeochemical modelling

Tropical deforestation contributes to the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Within the deforestation process, fire is frequently used to eliminate biomass in preparation for agricultural use. Quantifying these deforestation-induced fire emissions represents a challenge, and current estimates are only available at coarse spatial resolution with large uncertainty. Here we developed a biogeochemical model using remote sensing observations of plant productivity, fire activity, and deforestation rates to estimate emissions for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001–2005. Our model of DEforestation CArbon Fluxes (DECAF) runs at 250-m spatial resolution with a monthly time step to capture spatial and temporal heterogeneity in fire dynamics in our study area within the ''arc of deforestation'', the southern and eastern fringe of the Amazon tropical forest where agricultural expansion is most concentrated. Fire emissions estimates from our modelling framework were on average 90 Tg C year<sup>−1</sup>, mostly stemming from fires associated with deforestation (74%) with smaller contributions from fires from conversions of Cerrado or pastures to cropland (19%) and pasture fires (7%). In terms of carbon dynamics, about 80% of the aboveground living biomass and litter was combusted when forests were converted to pasture, and 89% when converted to cropland because of the highly mechanized nature of the deforestation process in Mato Grosso. The trajectory of land use change from forest to other land uses often takes more than one year, and part of the biomass that was not burned in the dry season following deforestation burned in consecutive years. This led to a partial decoupling of annual deforestation rates and fire emissions, and lowered interannual variability in fire emissions. Interannual variability in the region was somewhat dampened as well because annual emissions from fires following deforestation and from maintenance fires did not covary, although the effect was small due to the minor contribution of maintenance fires. Our results demonstrate how the DECAF model can be used to model deforestation fire emissions at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions. Detailed model output is suitable for policy applications concerned with annual emissions estimates distributed among post-clearing land uses and science applications in combination with atmospheric emissions modelling to provide constrained global deforestation fire emissions estimates. DECAF currently estimates emissions from fire; future efforts can incorporate other aspects of net carbon emissions from deforestation including soil respiration and regrowth

Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009)

New burned area datasets and top-down constraints from atmospheric concentration measurements of pyrogenic gases have decreased the large uncertainty in fire emissions estimates. However, significant gaps remain in our understanding of the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural waste, and peat fires to total global fire emissions. Here we used a revised version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model and improved satellite-derived estimates of area burned, fire activity, and plant productivity to calculate fire emissions for the 1997–2009 period on a 0.5° spatial resolution with a monthly time step. For November 2000 onwards, estimates were based on burned area, active fire detections, and plant productivity from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. For the partitioning we focused on the MODIS era. We used maps of burned area derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) active fire data prior to MODIS (1997–2000) and estimates of plant productivity derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations during the same period. Average global fire carbon emissions according to this version 3 of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) were 2.0 Pg C year⁻¹ with significant interannual variability during 1997–2001 (2.8 Pg C year⁻¹ in 1998 and 1.6 Pg C year⁻¹ in 2001). Globally, emissions during 2002–2007 were relatively constant (around 2.1 Pg C year⁻¹) before declining in 2008 (1.7 Pg C year⁻¹) and 2009 (1.5 Pg C year⁻¹) partly due to lower deforestation fire emissions in South America and tropical Asia. On a regional basis, emissions were highly variable during 2002–2007 (e.g., boreal Asia, South America, and Indonesia), but these regional differences canceled out at a global level. During the MODIS era (2001–2009), most carbon emissions were from fires in grasslands and savannas (44%) with smaller contributions from tropical deforestation and degradation fires (20%), woodland fires (mostly confined to the tropics, 16%), forest fires (mostly in the extratropics, 15%), agricultural waste burning (3%), and tropical peat fires (3%). The contribution from agricultural waste fires was likely a lower bound because our approach for measuring burned area could not detect all of these relatively small fires. Total carbon emissions were on average 13% lower than in our previous (GFED2) work. For reduced trace gases such as CO and CH₄, deforestation, degradation, and peat fires were more important contributors because of higher emissions of reduced trace gases per unit carbon combusted compared to savanna fires. Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation, degradation, and peatland fires were on average 0.5 Pg C year⁻¹. The carbon emissions from these fires may not be balanced by regrowth following fire. Our results provide the first global assessment of the contribution of different sources to total global fire emissions for the past decade, and supply the community with an improved 13-year fire emissions time series

Active Amplification of the Terrestrial Albedo to Mitigate Climate Change: An Exploratory Study

This study explores the potential to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface as a climate change mitigation measure. Preliminary estimates derived using a static radiative transfer model indicate that such efforts could amplify the planetary albedo enough to offset the current global annual average level of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases by as much as 30 percent or 0.76 W/m2. Terrestrial albedo amplification may thus extend, by about 25 years, the time available to advance the development and use of low-emission energy conversion technologies which ultimately remain essential to mitigate long-term climate change. However, additional study is needed to confirm the estimates reported here and to assess the economic and environmental impacts of active land-surface albedo amplification as a climate change mitigation measure.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures. In press with Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, N

Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change

The net flux of carbon from land use and land-cover change (LULCC) accounted for 12.5% of anthropogenic carbon emissions from 1990 to 2010. This net flux is the most uncertain term in the global carbon budget, not only because of uncertainties in rates of deforestation and forestation, but also because of uncertainties in the carbon density of the lands actually undergoing change. Furthermore, there are differences in approaches used to determine the flux that introduce variability into estimates in ways that are difficult to evaluate, and not all analyses consider the same types of management activities. Thirteen recent estimates of net carbon emissions from LULCC are summarized here. In addition to deforestation, all analyses considered changes in the area of agricultural lands (croplands and pastures). Some considered, also, forest management (wood harvest, shifting cultivation). None included emissions from the degradation of tropical peatlands. Means and standard deviations across the thirteen model estimates of annual emissions for the 1980s and 1990s, respectively, are 1.14 ± 0.23 and 1.12 ± 0.25 Pg C yrg (1 Pg Combining double low line 1015 g carbon). Four studies also considered the period 2000-2009, and the mean and standard deviations across these four for the three decades are 1.14 ± 0.39, 1.17 ± 0.32, and 1.10 ± 0.11 Pg C yrg. For the period 1990-2009 the mean global emissions from LULCC are 1.14 ± 0.18 Pg C yrg. The standard deviations across model means shown here are smaller than previous estimates of uncertainty as they do not account for the errors that result from data uncertainty and from an incomplete understanding of all the processes affecting the net flux of carbon from LULCC. Although these errors have not been systematically evaluated, based on partial analyses available in the literature and expert opinion, they are estimated to be on the order of ± 0.5 Pg C yrg