Technique for producing wind-tunnel heat-transfer models

Inexpensive thin skinned wind tunnel models with thermocouples on certain surface areas were fabricated. Thermocouples were designed for measuring aerodynamic heat transfer in wind tunnels

Monthly Paleostreamflow Reconstruction from Annual Tree-Ring Chronologies

Paleoclimate reconstructions are increasingly used to characterize annual climate variability prior to the instrumental record, to improve estimates of climate extremes, and to provide a baseline for climate-change projections. To date, paleoclimate records have seen limited engineering use to estimate hydrologic risks because water systems models and managers usually require streamflow input at the monthly scale. This study explores the hypothesis that monthly streamflows can be adequately modeled by statistically decomposing annual flow reconstructions. To test this hypothesis, a multiple linear regression model for monthly streamflow reconstruction is presented that expands the set of predictors to include annual streamflow reconstructions, reconstructions of global circulation, and potential differences among regional tree-ring chronologies related to tree species and geographic location. This approach is used to reconstruct 600 years of monthly streamflows at two sites on the Bear and Logan rivers in northern Utah. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies remain above zero (0.26–0.60) for all months except April and Pearson’s correlation coefficients (R) are 0.94 and 0.88 for the Bear and Logan rivers, respectively, confirming that the model can adequately reproduce monthly flows during the reference period (10/1942 to 9/2015). Incorporating a flexible transition between the previous and concurrent annual reconstructed flows was the most important factor for model skill. Expanding the model to include global climate indices and regional tree-ring chronologies produced smaller, but still significant improvements in model fit. The model presented here is the only approach currently available to reconstruct monthly streamflows directly from tree-ring chronologies and climate reconstructions, rather than using resampling of the observed record. With reasonable estimates of monthly flow that extend back in time many centuries, water managers can challenge systems models with a larger range of natural variability in drought and pluvial events and better evaluate extreme events with recurrence intervals longer than the observed record. Establishing this natural baseline is critical when estimating future hydrologic risks under conditions of a non-stationary climate

Fire-Environment Analysis: An Example of Army Garrison Camp Williams, Utah

The planning of fuel treatments for ecological or societal purposes requires an in-depth understanding of the conditions associated with the occurrence of free-burning fire behavior for the area of concern. Detailed fire-environment analysis for Army Garrison Camp Williams (AGCW) in north-central Utah was completed as a prerequisite for fuel treatment planning, using a procedure that could be generally applied. Vegetation and fuels data, topographic and terrain features, and weather and climate data, were assessed and integrated into predictive fuel models to aid planning. A fire behavior fuel model map was developed from biophysical variables, vegetation type, and plot survey data using random forests, and resulted in an overall classification rate of 72%. The predominate vegetation type-fuel complex was grass, followed by lesser amounts of Gambel oak, Wyoming big sagebrush and Utah juniper. The majority of AGCW is mountainous in nature, characterized by slopes less than 40% in steepness with slightly more northerly and easterly aspects than south and west, and elevations that ranged from 1650 to 1950 m above mean sea level. Local fire weather data compiled from the three nearest remote automated weather stations indicated that average temperature maxima (32◦C) and relative humidity minima (12%) usually occurred between 1400 to 1500 h daily, and from July to August, seasonally. The semi-arid climate at AGCW, coupled with the corresponding preponderance of flashy fuel types and sloping terrain, constitutes a formidable fire environment in which to plan for mitigating against adverse fire behavior

A metabolomic, geographic, and seasonal analysis of the contribution of pollen-derived adenosine to allergic sensitization

Background Studies on ragweed and birch pollen extracts suggested that the adenosine content is an important factor in allergic sensitization. However, exposure levels from other pollens and considerations of geographic and seasonal factors have not been evaluated. Objective This study compared the metabolite profile of pollen species important for allergic disease, specifically measured the adenosine content, and evaluated exposure to pollen-derived adenosine. Methods An NMR metabolomics approach was used to measure metabolite concentrations in twenty-six pollen extracts. Pollen count data was analyzed from five cities to model exposure. Results A principal component analysis of the various metabolites identified by NMR showed that pollen extracts could be differentiated primarily by sugar content: glucose, fructose, sucrose, and myo-inositol. In extracts of 10 mg of pollen/ml, the adenosine was highest for grasses (45 μM) followed by trees (23 μM) and weeds (19 μM). Pollen count data showed that tree pollen was typically 5–10 times the amount of other pollens. At the daily peaks of tree, grass, and weed season the pollen-derived adenosine exposure per day is likely to only be 1.1, 0.11, and 0.12 μg, respectively. Seasonal models of pollen exposure and respiration suggest that it would be a rare event limited to tree pollen season for concentrations of pollen-derived adenosine to approach physiological levels. Conclusions Sugar content and other metabolites may be useful in classifying pollens. Unless other factors create localized exposures that are very different from these models, pollen-derived adenosine is unlikely to be a major factor in allergic sensitization

The Death Detectives

The death detectives is a series of blogs about death, photography and seeing the crime written in partnership with The Photographers' Gallery and Surviving Work

A millennium-length reconstruction of Bear River stream flow, Utah

The Bear River contributes more water to the eastern Great Basin than any other river system. It is also the most significant source of water for the burgeoning Wasatch Front metropolitan area in northern Utah. Despite its importance for water resources for the region’s agricultural, urban, and wildlife needs, our understanding of the variability of Bear River’s stream flow derives entirely from the short instrumental record (1943–2010). Here we present a 1200-year calibrated and verified tree-ring reconstruction of stream flow for the Bear River that explains 67% of the variance of the instrumental record over the period from 1943 to 2010. Furthermore, we developed this reconstruction from a species that is not typically used for dendroclimatology, Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma). We identify highly significant periodicity in our reconstruction at quasi-decadal (7–8 year), multi-decadal (30 year), and centennial (>50 years) scales. The latter half of the 20th century was found to be the 2nd wettest (∼40-year) period of the past 1200 years, while the first half of the 20th century marked the 4th driest period. The most severe period of reduced stream flow occurred during the Medieval Warm Period (ca. mid-1200s CE) and persisted for ∼70 years. Upper-level circulation anomalies suggest that atmospheric teleconnections originating in the western tropical Pacific are responsible for the delivery of precipitation to the Bear River watershed during the October–December (OND) season of the previous year. The Bear River flow was compared to recent reconstructions of the other tributaries to the Great Salt Lake (GSL) and the GSL level. Implications for water management could be drawn from the observation that the latter half of the 20th century was the 2nd wettest in 1200 years, and that management for future water supply should take into account the stream flow variability over the past millennium

Towards More Precise Survey Photometry for PanSTARRS and LSST: Measuring Directly the Optical Transmission Spectrum of the Atmosphere

Motivated by the recognition that variation in the optical transmission of the atmosphere is probably the main limitation to the precision of ground-based CCD measurements of celestial fluxes, we review the physical processes that attenuate the passage of light through the Earth's atmosphere. The next generation of astronomical surveys, such as PanSTARRS and LSST, will greatly benefit from dedicated apparatus to obtain atmospheric transmission data that can be associated with each survey image. We review and compare various approaches to this measurement problem, including photometry, spectroscopy, and LIDAR. In conjunction with careful measurements of instrumental throughput, atmospheric transmission measurements should allow next-generation imaging surveys to produce photometry of unprecedented precision. Our primary concerns are the real-time determination of aerosol scattering and absorption by water along the line of sight, both of which can vary over the course of a night's observations.Comment: 41 pages, 14 figures. Accepted PAS