Defining the hundred year flood: a Bayesian approach for using historic data to reduce uncertainty in flood frequency estimates

This paper describes a Bayesian statistical model for estimating flood frequency by combining uncertain annual maximum (AMAX) data from a river gauge with estimates of flood peak discharge from various historic sources that predate the period of instrument records. Such historic flood records promise to expand the time series data needed for reducing the uncertainty in return period estimates for extreme events, but the heterogeneity and uncertainty of historic records make them difficult to use alongside Flood Estimation Handbook and other standard methods for generating flood frequency curves from gauge data. Using the flow of the River Eden in Carlisle, Cumbria, UK as a case study, this paper develops a Bayesian model for combining historic flood estimates since 1800 with gauge data since 1967 to estimate the probability of low frequency flood events for the area taking account of uncertainty in the discharge estimates. Results show a reduction in 95% confidence intervals of roughly 50% for annual exceedance probabilities of less than 0.0133 (return periods over 75 years) compared to standard flood frequency estimation methods using solely systematic data. Sensitivity analysis shows the model is sensitive to 2 model parameters both of which are concerned with the historic (pre-systematic) period of the time series. This highlights the importance of adequate consideration of historic channel and floodplain changes or possible bias in estimates of historic flood discharges. The next steps required to roll out this Bayesian approach for operational flood frequency estimation at other sites is also discussed

Cuban Annexation, Slave Power Paranoia, And the Collapse of the Democratic Party In Maine, 1850-1854

This article reviews the impact of attempts to annex Cuba to the United States prior to the Civil and also the direct impact of this issue on the politics of the State of Maine

The Field of Consulting Forester

The railroad claim agent finished lighting his cigar and with a dirty look at the young man facing him, said And now young teller what makes you thankful that our number twelve set the woods afire two years ago last August tenth? The young man, shifting weight to the other foot: I have the proof, and after having appraised the damages done by the fire, the owners asked me to come to you and file claim for $23,500 or in other words, an average of$10 an acre for the 2,350 acres burned.

Performance Pressure and Resource Allocation in Washington

Based on interviews with state, district, and school officials, explores how performance pressures have changed resource allocation decisions. Examines reform goals and how Washington's finance system impedes efforts to link resources to student learning

A Case Report Discussing The Options for Placement of Glaucoma Drainage Devices in the Presence of Corneal Decompensation

Purpose: The purpose of this case report is to discuss how the various placements of glaucoma drainage implants relate to corneal decompensation. Method: A 58-year Hispanic female presented for evaluation of decreased vision in the left eye for 2 years. This is a case report of a patient who underwent a secondary surgery to replace the anterior tube shunt implantation with a posterior shunt implantation following development of severe corneal decompensation. Results: Glaucoma tube shunt implants inserted into the ciliary sulcus of pseudophakic eyes shield the cornea offering protection against decompensation and avoid the risk of posterior segment complications. Conclusions: Placement of glaucoma drainage implants into the ciliary sulcus in pseudophakic patients with shallow anterior chambers, abnormal irido-corneal anatomy, or those at risk for corneal decompensation is a safe and effective method of not only lowering the intraocular pressure but also protecting the cornea against decompensation. As primary eye care providers, optometrists need to know the various treatment options and adverse effects associated with each procedure

A Case Report Discussing an Uncommon Peripheral Exudative Hemorrhagic Chorioretinopathy

Purpose: The purpose of this case report is to discuss an uncommon, unique hemorrhagic chorioretinopathy. Method: A 79-year-old-white female presented to clinic with complaints of difficulty reading at close distances and seeing faces at far distances in both eyes. An 85-year old white female presented with no visual complaints but stated redness in the nasal corner of her right eye. This is a case report of two patients that presented with geographic atrophy of the macula as well as midperipheral RPE alterations in both eyes, which resembled intraretinal hemorrhages. Results: The ocular findings associated with peripheral exudative hemorrhagic chorioretinopathy may include midperipheral intraretinal hemorrhages, peripheral RPE mottling, subretinal fluid or hemorrhages, subretinal exudation, pigment epithelial detachments, and/or vitreous hemorrhages. Conclusions: Although this condition is rare, primary eye care providers should be aware of this unique clinical entity, its relationship to age-related macular degeneration, and when these patients require a referral to a retinal specialist

Accounting for Sustainability in Asia: Stock Market Regulation and Reporting in Hong Kong and Singapore

10.1080/00130095.2018.1544461Economic Geography954362-38

$92.4 million in MEIF investments drive UMaine research to record heights

Research investments and expenditures at the University of Maine have increased dramatically over the year amidst a strategic pursuit of research activity being promoted by UMaine President Joan Ferrini-Mundy and others at UMaine and the University of Maine System. The Maine Economic Improvement Fund (MEIF) represents the ongoing commitment between the state, the private sector and our public universities, working together to advance research and economic development for the benefit of all Maine people