Nonlinear Minimization Estimators in the Presence of Cointegrating Relations

In this paper, we consider estimation of a long-run and a short-run parameter jointly in the presence of nonlinearities. The theory developed establishes limit behavior of minimization estimators of the long-run and short-run parameters jointly. Typically, if the long-run parameter that is present in a cointegrating relationship is estimated, its estimator will be superconsistent. Therefore, we may conjecture that the joint minimization estimation of both parameters jointly will result in the same limit distribution for the short-run parameter as if the long-run parameter was known. However, we show that unless a regularity condition holds, this intuition is false in general. This regularity condition, that clearly holds in the standard linear case, is identical to the condition for validity of a two-step Granger-Engle type procedure. Also, it is shown that if the cointegrated variables are measured in deviation from their averages, the standard asymptotic normality result (that one would obtain if the long-run parameter was known) holds.

The Evolution of Market Integration in Russia

We use a statistical model of commodity trade to measure the extent of integration between regional commodity markets within Russia. Monthly time-series data on regional commodity prices spanning 1994 through 1999 indicate substantial temporal fluctuations in integration over this period: an initial period of widespread integration gradually gave way to a period of disconnectedness in 1995 through 1997, which seems to have subsided by mid-1998. These temporal fluctuations exhibit strong statistical relationships with a host of aggregate variables; most notably, internal integration exhibits a strong negative relationship with international trade.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39718/3/wp334.pd

Policy Reform and Growth in Post-Soviet Russia

In pursuit of its transition from a command to a market economy, Russia has witnessed enormous regional differences in economic growth rates. Moreover, the implementation of economic reforms has also differed markedly across regions. We analyze whether regional differences in reform policies can account for regional differences in growth rates, and conclude that to a considerable degree, they can. Most notably, we find that regional differences in price liberalization policies exhibit a positive direct correspondence with growth. We also find that regional differences in large-scale privatization exhibit a positive correspondence with the regional formation of new legal enterprises, which in turn exhibits a strong positive correspondence with growth.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39789/3/wp405.pd

Integration: An Empirical Assessment of Russia

In the process of implementing market reforms, many post-socialist countries have struggled to preserve economic and political integration. Using a statistical model of commodity trade, we quantify the evolution of economic integration observed among regions within Russia during 1995-1999, and then explore potential determinants of the patterns of integration we observe. Our measure of integration exhibits rich regional variation that, when aggregated to the national level, fluctuates substantially over time. In seeking to account for this behavior, we draw in part on theoretical models that emphasize the potential role of openness to international trade, regional disparities in income, and inflation volatility in threatening economic and political integration. Controlling for a host of additional regional- and national-level variables, we find a strong negative correspondence between openness to international trade and internal economic integration within Russia. We also find negative links but weaker links between integration and regional-income disparities and inflation volatility.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39873/3/wp488.pd

Entrepreneurship and Post-Socialist Growth

A growing body of national-level survey evidence indicates that small-scale entrepreneurial activity has been an important engine of growth in post-socialist economies. Here we use a rich regional data set to obtain a statistical characterization of the relationship between entrepreneurial activity and economic growth within post-Soviet Russia. Russia is a useful laboratory for evaluating links between entrepreneurial activity and growth because of the striking variation in initial conditions, the adoption of policy reforms, and entrepreneurial activity observed across its large number of regions in the early stages of transition. Russia has also experienced striking regional variation in subsequent growth. Conditional on variations in initial conditions and policy reform measures, we find that regional entrepreneurial activity exhibits a strong and enduring relationship with subsequent growth.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39790/3/wp406.pd

Learning Strategic Sophistication

We experimentally investigate coordination games in which cognition plays an important role, i.e. where outcomes are affected by the agents level of understanding of the game and the beliefs they form about each others understanding.We ask whether and when repeated exposure permits agents to learn to improve cognition in a strategic setting.We find evidence for strategic sophistication being learned, generalized and promoted.Agents acquire strategic sophistication in simple settings.They may fail to do so in similar but more demanding settings.Given the opportunity, they transfer learning from the simple to the more demanding task.There is heterogeneity in sophistication.We find some evidence for sophisticated agents trying to spread sophistication early in the game, provided there is a long enough time horizon.noncooperative games;laboratory group behavior

Cognition in Spatial Dispersion Games

In common-interest spatial-dispersion games the agents common goal is to choose distinct locations.We experimentally investigate the role of cognition in such games and compare it with the role of cognition in spatial matching games. In our setup cognition matters because agents may be differentially aware of the dispersion opportunities that are created by the history of the game.We ask whether cognitive constraints limit the agents ability to achieve dispersion and, if there is dispersion, whether these constraints affect the mode by which agents achieve dispersion.Our main finding is that strategic interaction magnifies the role of cognitive constraints.Specifically, with cognitive constraints, pairs of agents fail to solve a dispersion problem that poses little or no problem for individual agents playing against themselves.When we remove the cognitive constraints in our design, pairs of agents solve the same problem just as well as individuals do.In addition, we find that when playing against themselves agents do not change the mode by which they solve the dispersion problem when our design removes the cognitive constraints.noncooperative games;laboratory group behavior

Computation of the tip vortex flowfield for advanced aircraft propellers

The tip vortex flowfield plays a significant role in the performance of advanced aircraft propellers. The flowfield in the tip region is complex, three-dimensional and viscous with large secondary velocities. An analysis is presented using an approximate set of equations which contains the physics required by the tip vortex flowfield, but which does not require the resources of the full Navier-Stokes equations. A computer code was developed to predict the tip vortex flowfield of advanced aircraft propellers. A grid generation package was developed to allow specification of a variety of advanced aircraft propeller shapes. Calculations of the tip vortex generation on an SR3 type blade at high Reynolds numbers were made using this code and a parametric study was performed to show the effect of tip thickness on tip vortex intensity. In addition, calculations of the tip vortex generation on a NACA 0012 type blade were made, including the flowfield downstream of the blade trailing edge. Comparison of flowfield calculations with experimental data from an F4 blade was made. A user's manual was also prepared for the computer code (NASA CR-182178)

User's manual for PEPSIG NASA tip vortex version

The tip vortex flowfield plays a significant role in the performance of advanced aircraft propellers. The flowfield in the tip region is complex, three-dimensional and viscous with large secondary velocities. A computer code was developed to predict the tip vortex flowfield of advanced aircraft propellers. This document is the user's manual. The analysis and a series of test cases are presented in NASA-CR-182179