Evaluation of ERA-Interim reanalysis precipitation products using England and Wales observations

Precipitation forecast data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis (33 years) are evaluated using the daily England and Wales Precipitation (EWP) observations obtained from a rain gauge network. Observed and reanalysis daily precipitation data are both described well by Weibull distributions with indistinguishable shapes but different scale parameters, such that the reanalysis underestimates the observations by an average factor of 22%. The correlation between the observed and ERA-Interim time series of regional, daily precipitation is 0.91. ERA-Interim also captures the statistics of extreme precipitation including a slightly lower likelihood of the heaviest precipitation events (>15 mm day− 1 for the regional average) than indicated by the Weibull fit. ERA-Interim is also closer to EWP for the high precipitation events. Since these carry weight in longer accumulations, a smaller underestimation of 19% is found for monthly mean precipitation. The partition between convective and stratiform precipitation in the ERA-Interim forecast is also examined. In summer both components contribute equally to the total precipitation amount, while in winter the stratiform precipitation is approximately double convective. These results are expected to be relevant to other regions with low orography on the coast of a continent at the downstream end of mid-latitude stormtracks

Physical and optical aerosol properties at the Dutch North Sea coast based on AERONET observations

International audienceSun photometer measurements at the AERONET station at the North Sea coast in The Hague (The Netherlands) provide a climatology of optical and physical aerosol properties for the area. Results are presented from the period January 2002 to July 2003. For the analysis and interpretation these data are coupled to chemical aerosol data from a nearby station of the Dutch National Air Quality Network. This network provides PM10 and black carbon concentrations. Meteorological conditions and air mass trajectories are also used. Due to the location close to the coast, the results are strongly dependent on wind direction, i.e. air mass trajectory. In general the aerosol optical properties are governed by industrial aerosol emitted form various industrial, agricultural and urban areas surrounding the site in almost all directions over land. For maritime air masses industrial aerosols are transported from over the North Sea, whereas very clean air is transported from the NW in clean polar air masses from the North Atlantic. In the winter the effect of the production of sea salt aerosol at high wind speeds is visible in the optical and physical aerosol data. In these cases fine and coarse mode radii are similar to those reported in the literature for marine aerosol. Relations are derived between the Ångström coefficients with both the fine/coarse mode fraction and the ratio of black carbon and PM10

Physical and optical aerosol properties at the Dutch North Sea coast

International audienceSun photometer measurements at the AERONET station at the North Sea coast in The Hague (The Netherlands) provide a climatology of optical and physical aerosol properties for the area. Results are presented from the period January 2002 to July 2003. For the analysis and interpretation these data are coupled to chemical aerosol data from a nearby station of the Dutch National Air Quality Network. This network provides PM10 and black carbon concentrations. Meteorological conditions and air mass trajectories are also used. Due to the location close to the coast, the results are strongly dependent on wind direction, i.e.~air mass trajectory. In general the aerosol optical properties are governed by industrial aerosol emitted form various industrial, agricultural and urban areas surrounding the site in almost all directions over land. For maritime air masses industrial aerosols are transported from over the North Sea, whereas very clean air is transported from the NW in clean polar air masses from the North Atlantic. In the winter the effect of the production of sea salt aerosol at high wind speeds is visible in the optical and physical aerosol data. In these cases fine and coarse mode radii are similar to those reported in the literature for marine aerosol. Relations are derived between the Ångström coefficients with both the fine/coarse mode fraction and the ratio of black carbon and PM10

Bound States of the q-Deformed AdS5 x S5 Superstring S-matrix

The investigation of the q deformation of the S-matrix for excitations on the string world sheet in AdS5 x S5 is continued. We argue that due to the lack of Lorentz invariance the situation is more subtle than in a relativistic theory in that the nature of bound states depends on their momentum. At low enough momentum |p|<E the bound states transform in the anti-symmetric representation of the super-algebra symmetry and become the solitons of the Pohlmeyer reduced theory in the relativistic limit. At a critical momentum |p|=E they become marginally unstable, and at higher momenta the stable bound states are in the symmetric representation and become the familiar magnons in the string limit as q->1. This subtlety fixes a problem involving the consistency of crossing symmetry with the relativistic limit found in earlier work. With mirror kinematics, obtained after a double Wick rotation, the bound state structure is simpler and there are no marginally unstable bound states.Comment: 25 page

Long-Ranged Orientational Order in Dipolar Fluids

Recently Groh and Dietrich claimed the thermodynamic state of a dipolar fluid depends on the shape of the fluid's container. For example, a homogeneous fluid in a short fat container would phase separate when transferred to a tall skinny container of identical volume and temperature. Their calculation thus lacks a thermodynamic limit. We show that removal of demagnetizing fields restores the true, shape independent, thermodynamic limit. As a consequence, spontaneously magnetized liquids display inhomogeneous magnetization textures.Comment: 3 pages, LaTex, no figures. Submitted as comment to PRL, May 199

Unipolar resistive switching in metal oxide/organic semiconductor non-volatile memories as a critical phenomenon

Diodes incorporating a bilayer of an organic semiconductor and a wide bandgap metal oxide can show unipolar, non-volatile memory behavior after electroforming. The prolonged bias voltage stress induces defects in the metal oxide with an areal density exceeding 10(17) m(-2). We explain the electrical bistability by the coexistence of two thermodynamically stable phases at the interface between an organic semiconductor and metal oxide. One phase contains mainly ionized defects and has a low work function, while the other phase has mainly neutral defects and a high work function. In the diodes, domains of the phase with a low work function constitute current filaments. The phase composition and critical temperature are derived from a 2D Ising model as a function of chemical potential. The model predicts filamentary conduction exhibiting a negative differential resistance and nonvolatile memory behavior. The model is expected to be generally applicable to any bilayer system that shows unipolar resistive switching. (C) 2015 Author(s).Dutch Polymer Institute (DPI), BISTABLE [704]; Fundacao para Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT) through the research Instituto de Telecommunicacoes (IT-Lx); project Memristor based Adaptive Neuronal Networks (MemBrAiNN) [PTDC/CTM-NAN/122868/2010]; European Community Seventh Framework Programme FP7', ONE-P [212311]; Dutch Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (Gravity Program) [024.001.035]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Scleroderma-like Pattern in Various Rheumatic Diseases reply

We thank Dr. Lambova for her interesting comment1 on our recent article published in The Journal2 We reported that a systemic sclerosis (SSc) or scleroderma-like capillaroscopic pattern is common in patients with Raynaud phenomenon, and can be frequently observed in patients with connective tissue diseases (CTD) other than SSc

ProtoExplorer: Interpretable Forensic Analysis of Deepfake Videos using Prototype Exploration and Refinement

In high-stakes settings, Machine Learning models that can provide predictions that are interpretable for humans are crucial. This is even more true with the advent of complex deep learning based models with a huge number of tunable parameters. Recently, prototype-based methods have emerged as a promising approach to make deep learning interpretable. We particularly focus on the analysis of deepfake videos in a forensics context. Although prototype-based methods have been introduced for the detection of deepfake videos, their use in real-world scenarios still presents major challenges, in that prototypes tend to be overly similar and interpretability varies between prototypes. This paper proposes a Visual Analytics process model for prototype learning, and, based on this, presents ProtoExplorer, a Visual Analytics system for the exploration and refinement of prototype-based deepfake detection models. ProtoExplorer offers tools for visualizing and temporally filtering prototype-based predictions when working with video data. It disentangles the complexity of working with spatio-temporal prototypes, facilitating their visualization. It further enables the refinement of models by interactively deleting and replacing prototypes with the aim to achieve more interpretable and less biased predictions while preserving detection accuracy. The system was designed with forensic experts and evaluated in a number of rounds based on both open-ended think aloud evaluation and interviews. These sessions have confirmed the strength of our prototype based exploration of deepfake videos while they provided the feedback needed to continuously improve the system

The Quantum Affine Origin of the AdS/CFT Secret Symmetry

We find a new quantum affine symmetry of the S-matrix of the one-dimensional Hubbard chain. We show that this symmetry originates from the quantum affine superalgebra U_q(gl(2|2)), and in the rational limit exactly reproduces the secret symmetry of the AdS/CFT worldsheet S-matrix.Comment: 22 page

Global Assessment of Grassland Carrying Capacities and Relative Stocking Densities of Livestock

Although many suggest that future diets should include more plant-based proteins, animal-sourced foods are unlikely to completely disappear from our diet. Grasslands yield a notable part of the world’s animal protein production, but thus far, there is no global insight into the relationship between current livestock stocking densities and the availability of grassland forage resources. This inhibits acting upon concerns over the negative effects of overgrazing in some areas and utilising the potential for increasing production in others. Previous research has examined the potential of sustainable grazing but lacks generic and observation-based methods needed to fully understand the opportunities and threats of grazing. Here we provide a novel framework and method to estimate global livestock carrying capacity and relative stocking density, i.e. the reported livestock distribution relative to the estimated carrying capacity. We first estimate the aboveground biomass that is available for grazers on grasslands and savannas based on the MODIS Net Primary Production (NPP) approach on a global scale. This information is then used to calculate reasonable livestock carrying capacities, using slopes, forest cover and animal forage requirements as restrictions. With this approach, we found that stocking rates exceed the forage provided by grasslands in northwestern Europe, midwestern United States, southern China and the African Sahel. In this study, we provide the highest resolution global datasets to date. Our results have implications for prospective global food system modelling as well as national agricultural and environmental policies. These maps and findings can assist with conservation efforts to reduce land degradation associated with overgrazing and help identify undergrazed areas for targeted sustainable intensification efforts