Modelling control of avian influenza in poultry: the link with data

In this paper the authors discuss the use of modelling in the evaluation of strategies designed to control epidemics of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry. Referring to a number of published models for HPAI transmission in poultry, the authors describe the different ways that modellers use quantitative information. Quantitative information can be used for model building, parameter estimation, and model validation. The authors emphasise that in the case of HPAI transmission in poultry there are important gaps in our understanding. Due to these gaps the models for the effects of certain control strategies, especially those involving vaccination of poultry, need to be based on provisional assumptions. Hence, it is necessary to validate these models and to do research to improve our understanding of the underlying processes in order to better parameterise the models and better estimate the parameter

Factors associated with the introduction of classical swine fever virus into pig herds in the central area of the 1997/98 epidemic in the Netherlands

A matched case-control study of 135 infected and 99 uninfected pig herds from the central area of the 1997 to 1998 epidemic of classical swine fever (CSF) in The Netherlands was undertaken to identify factors associated with the introduction of the virus. The herds were matched on the basis of herd type and the shortest geographical distance between pairs of herds. Data on management, hygienic measures, experiences during the depopulation of an infected nearest neighbour, and the frequency of contact with professionals and other agencies were collected by means of a questionnaire taken by personal interview. There were no significant differences between the infected and uninfected herds in the median total number of contacts per year with professionals and other agencies either with or without contact with the pigs. On the basis of a multivariable analysis, five variables were found to be significantly associated with an increased risk of infection: (1) the presence of commercial poultry on the premises; (2) visitors entering the pig units without wearing an overcoat or overalls and boots supplied by the farm; (3) the driver of the lorry transporting pigs for the Pig Welfare Disposal Scheme (PWDS) using his own boots instead of boots supplied by the farm; (4) herds of moderate size (500 to 1,000 animals) and very large herds (>7,000 animals) were at greater risk than small herds (<500 animals); and (5) an aerosol, produced during high-pressure cleaning of the electrocution equipment used to kill the pigs on a neighbouring infected herd less than 250 m away was carried by the wind on to the premises. Two variables were significantly associated with a decreased risk of CSFV-infection: (1) more than 30 years of experience in pig farming; and (2) additional cleaning of the lorries used to transport pigs for the PWDS before they were allowed on to the premises. In the opinion of the cooperating farmers, airborne transmission of the virus and its transmission during the depopulation of an infected neighbour were among the most important routes of infection

Within- and between-pen transmission of Classical Swine Fever Virus: a new method to estimate the basic reproduction ratio from transmission experiments

We present a method to estimate basic reproduction ratio R0 from transmission experiments. By using previously published data of experiments with Classical Swine Fever Virus more extensively, we obtained smaller confidence intervals than the martingale method used in the original papers. Moreover, our method allows simultaneous estimation of a reproduction ratio within pens R0w and a modified reproduction ratio between pens R'0b. Resulting estimates of R0w and R'0b for weaner pigs were 100 (95% CI 54.4-186) and 7.77 (4.68-12.9), respectively. For slaughter pigs they were 15.5 (6.20-38.7) and 3.39 (1.54-7.45), respectively. We believe, because of the smaller confidence intervals we were able to obtain, that the method presented here is better suited for use in future experiments

Rate of inter-herd transmission of classical swine fever virus by different types of contact during the 1997-8 epidemic in The Netherlands

In this study we quanti®ed the rate at which classical swine fever had been transmitted by several different types of inter-herd contact during the 1997±8 epidemic in The Netherlands. During that epidemic 428 CSFV-infected pig herds were detected, 403 of which were include in this study. The estimated rates of transmission were 0±065 per shipment of live pigs, 0±011 per contact by a pig transportation lorry, 0±0068 per person contact, 0±0007 per dose of semen, 0±0065 per contact with a potentially contaminated pig assembly point, 0±027 per week per infected herd within a radius of 500 metres and 0±0078 per week per infected herd at a distance between 500 and 1000 metres. These transmission rates can be used to optimize the strategy to stop future epidemics of CSF in The Netherlands. In addition, the analysis demonstrated in this paper, can be used to quantify CSFV transmission rates from other epidemics

Using simulation to estimate the power of a badger vaccine trial

The aim of this study was to estimate the power of a badger vaccine field trial using simulation techniques. The effects of sample size, sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test, transmission rate between unvaccinated badgers, Vaccine Efficacy for Susceptibility (VES) and Vaccine Efficacy for Infectiousness (VEI) on study power were determined. The most striking result was the large effect of the specificity of the diagnostic test on study power. Sample size had a small effect on power. Study power increased with increasing transmission rate between non-vaccinated badgers. Changes in VES had a higher impact on power than changes in VEI. In summary, study power in group randomized trials depends not only on sample size but on many other parameters. In the current vaccine trial, power was highly dependent on the specificity of the diagnostic test. Therefore, it is critical that the diagnostic test used in the badger vaccine trial is optimized to maximise test specificity

Zorgvuldige bestrijding van zeer besmettelijke dierziekten

In dit hoofdstuk wordt de bestrijding besproken van uitbraken van zeer besmettelijke dierziekten, in het jargon 'aangifteplichtige ziekten' genoemd. Daarbij bediscussiëren de auteurs ook wat voor deze ziekten bestrijdingstechnisch mogelijk is. Of en hoe we dierziekten bestrijden, zijn maatschappelijke keuzes. Die keuzemogelijkheden worden beperkt door de technische mogelijkheden en vooral door de kennis over de effecten van de te nemen bestrijdingsmaatregelen

Airborne microorganisms and dust from livestock houses

The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficiencies and suitability of samplers for airborne microorganisms and dust, which could be used in practical livestock houses. Two studies were performed: 1) Testing impaction and cyclone pre-separators for dust sampling in livestock houses; 2) Determining sampling efficiencies of four bioaerosol samplers for bacteria and virus. Study 1. The overloading problem of the EU reference impaction pre-separator (IPS) was tested in layer houses and compared with cyclone pre-separators (CPS) for sampling PM10 and PM2.5. Study 2. Physical and biological efficiencies of Andersen 6-stage impactor, all glass impinger (AGI-30), high air flow rate sampler OMNI-3000, and MD8 with gelatin filter were investigated for collecting aerosolized bacteria, Enterococcus faecalis, Escherichia coli, Campylobacter jejuni and Mycoplasma synoviae and live Gumboro vaccine virus. A tracer (uranine) was used to determine physical efficiencies and bioaerosol deposition. The study was done in a HEPA isolator (volume: 1.3 m3). The results show the PM10 IPS did not become overloaded in 24 h measurements in layer houses, whereas PM2.5 IPS became overloaded within 1 h. CPS did not become overloaded during 48 h sampling of both dust fractions. The OMNI-3000 (62%) had lower physical efficiency than the MD8, while the other samplers had similar efficiencies as MD8. All the bioaerosol samplers had high biological efficiencies for all four bacterial species, except for C. jejuni (1%) when measured with the OMNI-3000 and for E. coli (38%) and C. jejuni (2%) when measured with the MD8. The biological efficiencies of the Andersen impactor (61%), the AGI-30 (90%) and the MD8 (163%) were not significantly different from 100% for collecting the aerosolized virus. However, the biological efficiency (23%) of the OMNI-3000 was significantly lower than 100%

Intra- and interspecies transmission of H7N7 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus during the avian influenza epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003

The poultry epidemic of H7N7 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus in the Netherlands in 2003 was probably the result of the introduction of an H7N7 low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus (by interspecies transmission from wild birds) and the subsequent intraspecies transmission of this virus in poultry. The intraspecies transmission of the ensuing H7N7 HPAI virus was very successful both within and between flocks. Consequently, in the two poultry-dense areas that were affected, the epidemic could only be stopped by eliminating all poultry in the region. According to the spatial models these are the only areas where this was the case in the Netherlands. There was also interspecies transmission to mammals, i.e. to pigs and to humans. For pigs it was shown that possible subsequent intraspecies transmission was negligible (R0 <1). With hindsight the same was probably also true for human

Transmission and quantification of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 in dairy cattle and calves

Data from a field study of 14 months duration in a naturally colonized dairy herd and data from an experiment with calves were used to quantify transmission of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC O157) in cattle. For the latter, two groups of 10 calves were randomly assigned and put out in one of two pastures. From each group, five animals were experimentally inoculated with 109 c.f.u. O157 VTEC and, considered infectious, put back in their group. Each of the susceptible contact calves became positive within 6 days of being reunited. The estimate of the basic reproduction ratio (R0) in the experiment was 7·3 (95% CI 3·92¿11·5), indicating that each infectious calf will infect seven other calves on average during an assumed infectious period of 28 days in a fully susceptible population. The R0 among dairy cows appeared to be about 10 times lower (0·70, 95% CI 0·48¿1·04). After the transmission experiment, six contact-infected animals that were shedding continuously during the experiment were housed in a tie stall during winter. After 40 days, all six tested negative for O157 VTEC. In June, after a period of 34 weeks in which the heifers remained negative, they were put out in a clean and isolated pasture to observe whether they started shedding again. On each pasture that was infected with O157 VTEC during the transmission experiment the previous summer, newly purchased susceptible calves were placed. None of the heifers or calves started shedding during 14 weeks, indicating that both the heifers and the previously contaminated pasture did not function as reservoir of O157 VTE