Bulls and Bears: Lessons from some European Countries

This paper analyzes the recent behavior of stock markets in four European countries. More specifically, we describe the bull and bear phases of those markets, comparing some of their features across countries and with the US. We also comment on the degree of concordance of stock market phases across countries. We find that cycles in European countries have become substantially more concordant in recent years, a result that was to be expected given the increased integration of the European financial markets, but that the degree of concordance is not high.

Stock Market Cycles and Stock Market Development in Spain

In this paper we use Spanish stock market data to identify the bull and bear phases of the market and to analyze its characteristics during the period 1941-2002. We compare these characteristics with those of the US and of two other European countries (Germany and the UK). Our sample is divided in two subperiods in order to account for differences induced by the process of development undergone by Spanish capital markets in the late 1980's and early 1990's. We find that the Spanish stock market has become increasingly more similar to those of the more developed countries, although some differences still persist. Additionally, we show that concordance of the Spanish stock market with other developed markets has increased quite significantly.Stock market cycle; data generating process; financial development

Inmunodeficiencias primarias en el adulto : estudio de los déficits de subclases de la IgG /

Consultable des del TDXTítol obtingut de la portada digitalitzadaEl dèficit d'IgG2 han estat estudiats a la població infantil i demostrada la seva relació de causalitat amb patologia pulmonar; tanmateix, existeixen pocs estudis, amb resultats contradictoris, amb relació a la població adulta. Respecte del dèficit selectiu d'IgG3 i IgG4 com a causa de patologia, no existeix unanimitat de criteris degut a la baixa sensibilitat i especificitat de les de tècniques de quantificació de les subclasses d'IgG sèriques. Resultats i Conclusions. Els valors de normalitat observats van ser: IgG1, 261-1081 mg/dl; IgG2, 112-408 mg/dl; IgG3, 22-288 mg/dl; IgG4, 5-156 mg/dl. La prevalença de dèficit de subclasses d'IgG va ser significativament més gran entre la població menor de 16 anys (54%) enfront de la població adulta (32%) (P<0,01). El dèficit observat amb una més gran freqüència va ser el d'IgG2. No es van observar diferències en amb relació al sexe. Les característiques clíniques que van caracteritzar els dèficit de subclasses de la IgG i que han de fer sospitar la seva presència són les següents: a) dèficit d'IgA en pacients simptomàtics o amb alteracions en l'espirometria; absència d'IgE sèrica pacients simptomàtics; c) bronquièctasis d'etiologia desconeguda; pneumònies de repetició d'etiologia desconeguda; d) BNCO a pacients joves no fumadors o que precisin de corticosteroides orals per al seu control; f) asma crònica a pacients amb infeccions recurrents del tracte respiratori o que precisin de corticosteroides orals; g) infeccions respiratòries recurrents que s'acompanyin d'hiperactivitat bronquial o sinusitis. $a El dèficit d'IgG2 han estat estudiats a la població infantil i demostrada la seva relació de causalitat amb patologia pulmonar; tanmateix, existeixen pocs estudis, amb resultats contradictoris, amb relació a la població adulta. Respecte del dèficit selectiu d'IgG3 i IgG4 com a causa de patologia, no existeix unanimitat de criteris degut a la baixa sensibilitat i especificitat de les de tècniques de quantificació de les subclasses d'IgG sèriques. Objectius.- Establir els valors de referència de les subclasses d'IgG en població adulta sana. Establir les característiques clíniques del dèficit primari de subclasses d'IgG i les indicacions del seu estudi en patologia pulmonar. Material i Mètodes.- Per determinar els valors normals de les subclasses d'IgG es van estudiar 100 individus sans. El grup d'estudi ho van formar 356 individus (257 adults i 99 entre 15-7 anys d'edat) que es van agrupar per orde d'inclusió en: dèficit d'IgA 25 pacients; absència d'IgE, 14 pacients; bronquièctasis, 65 pacients; pneumònies de repetició, 45 pacients; BNC, 43 pacients; asma crònica, 53 pacients; infeccions respiratòries recurrents (processos infecciosos del tracte respiratori que cursin amb febre i un número mínim de tres episodis a l'any excloses les pneumònies), 43 pacients; asma simple, 50 pacients; i pneumònia 18 pacients. Van ser exclosos de l'estudi pacients amb patologia associada a dèficit secundari d'immunoglobulines i aquells la patologia d'estudi dels quals obeïa una causa coneguda (FQ, CVI...). A tots els pacients se'ls va practicar una espirometria forçada. La quantificació de les subclasses d'IgG es va realitzar mitjançant tècnica d'ELISA. Els valors de referència de cada subclasse d'IgG es van obtenir a partir [de la mitjaEl déficit de IgG2 han sido estudiados en la población infantil y demostrada su relación de causalidad con patología pulmonar; sin embargo, existen pocos estudios, con resultados contradictorios, en relación a la población adulta. Con respecto al déficit selectivo de IgG3 e IgG4 como causa de patología, no existe unanimidad de criterios debido a la baja sensibilidad y especificad de las de técnicas de cuantificación de las subclases de IgG en suero. Objetivos.- Establecer los valores de referencia de las subclases de IgG en población adulta sana. Establecer las características clínicas del déficit primario de subclases de IgG y las indicaciones de su estudio en patología pulmonar. Material y Métodos.- Para determinar los valores normales de las subclases de IgG se estudiaron 100 individuos sanos. El grupo de estudio lo formaron 356 individuos (257 adultos y 99 entre 15-7 años de edad) que se agruparon por orden de inclusión en: déficit de IgA 25 pacientes; ausencia de IgE, 14 pacientes; bronquiectasias, 65 pacientes; neumonías de repetición, 45 pacientes; BNC, 43 pacientes; asma crónica, 53 pacientes; infecciones respiratorias recurrentes (procesos infecciosos del tracto respiratorio que cursen con fiebre y en un número mínimo de tres episodios al año excluidas las neumonías), 43 pacientes; asma simple, 50 pacientes; y neumonía 18 pacientes. Fueron excluidos del estudio pacientes con patología asociada a déficit secundario de inmunoglobulinas y aquellos cuya patología de estudio obedecía a una causa conocida (FQ, CVI). A todos los pacientes se les practicó una espirometría forzada. La cuantificación de las subclases de IgG se realizó mediante técnica de ELISA. Los valores de referencia de cada subclase de IgG se obtuvieron a partir de la media ± 2 DE o del rango según fuese normal o no respectivamente la distribución de los valores (análisis de Kolgomorov-Smirnov). La comparación de variables cualitativas se realizó mediante la prueba de Ji cuadrado y la fórmula exacta de Fisher cuando fue necesario. La comparación de variables cuantitativas se realizó mediante la prueba de la t de student o la prueba de Wilcoxon para datos no apareados. Resultados y Conclusiones. Los valores de normalidad observados fueron: IgG1, 261-1081 mg/dl; IgG2, 112-408 mg/dl; IgG3, 22-288 mg/dl; IgG4, 5-156 mg/dl. La prevalencia de déficit de subclases de IgG fue significativamente mayor entre la población menor de 16 años (54%) frente a la población adulta (32%) (P<0,01). El déficit observado con mayor frecuencia fue el de IgG2. No se observaron diferencias en en relación al sexo. Las características clínicas que caracterizaron a los déficit de subclases de la IgG y que deben de hacer sospechar su presencia son las siguientes: a) déficit de IgA en pacientes sintomáticos o con alteraciones en la espirometría; ausencia de IgE sérica en pacientes sintomáticos; c) bronquiectasias de etiología desconocida; neumonías de repetición de etiología desconocida; d) BNCO en pacientes jóvenes no fumadores o que precisen de corticoesteroides orales para su control; f) asma crónico en pacientes con infecciones recurrentes del tracto respiratorio o que precisen de corticoesteroides orales; g) infecciones respiratorias recurrentes que se acompañen de hiperreactividad bronquial o sinusitis.The deficit in IgG2 have been studied in children and proven relation with lung disease, but there are few studies with contradictory results, in relation to the adult population. In relation to the deficit selective IgG3 and IgG4 as a cause of pathology, there is no unanimity of criteria due to the low sensitivity and specify the techniques in relation to serum IgG subclasses quantification. Objective.- Reference values of the IgG subclasses in healthy adults. Establish the clinical characteristics of primary deficit of IgG subclasses and its indications of study in lung disease. Material and Methods .- To determine the normal values of the subclasses of IgG were studied 100 healthy individuals. The study group have been included by 356 individuals (257 adults and 99 between 15-7 years of age) who were grouped by order of entry for: deficit of IgA 25 patients; absence of IgE, 14 patients; bronchiectasis, 65 patients; recurrent pneumonia, 45 patients; COPD, 43 patients, chronic asthma, 53 patients, recurrent respiratory infections (infections of the respiratory tract that is accompanied by fever and a minimum of three episodes per year excluding pneumonia), 43 patients; simple asthma, 50 patients; and and pneumonia, 18 patients. Were excluded from the study patients with pathology associated with secondary immune deficiency and those who's a known cause (CF, CVI ...). Forced spirometry was performed in all patients. IgG subclasses quantification was performed using the ELISA technique. The reference values for each subclass of IgG were obtained from the mean ± 2 SD or as range of values if when normal or not distribution of values respectively (analysis Kolgomorov-Smirnov). The comparison of qualitative variables was performed using chi-square test and Fisher exact tes when necessary. The comparison of quantitative variables was performed by t- student or Wilcoxon test by unpaired data. Results and Conclusions. The reference values of IgG subclasses wre: IgG1, 261-1081 mg / dl; IgG2, 112-408 mg / dl; IgG3, 22-288 mg / dl; IgG4, 5-156 mg / dl. The prevalence of IgG subclasses deficit was significantly higher among people under age 16 (54%) compared to the adult population (32%) (P <0.01). The IgG2 deficit was the most frequently observed. There were no significant differences in relation to sex. The clinical features that characterized the deficits of IgG subclasses and that should lead to suspicion of their presence are: a) IgA deficit in patients with symptomatic or with alterations in spirometry; serum absence of IgE in symptomatic patients c) bronchiectasis of unknown aetiology; recurrent pneumonia of unknown aetiology; d) COPD young patients in non-smokers or who require oral corticosteroids to control it; f) chronic asthma in patients with recurrent respiratory tract infections or which require oral corticosteroids; g ) Recurrent respiratory infections associated to bronchial hyperreactivity or sinusitis

Money Demand Accommodation: Impact on Macro-Dynamics and Policy Consequences

In this paper we account for the U.S. Fed's response to money demand shocks by allowing for less-than-complete accommodation in the estimation of its money supply policy rule. We estimate a significantly lower degree of money accommodation in the 1979-1982 period than before and after. We identify the path of money demand and money supply shocks and show their effects on the money market, output and inflation. Both money demand and money supply shocks have been considerably less destabilizing since 1984. We also find that monetary policy was significantly pro-cyclical in the 70s. Additionally, the price puzzle disappears for two of the three subperiods considered in the study.Money demand shocks, money demand accommodation, monetary policy procedures, macroeconomic dynamics

Exchange rate behavior and exchange rate puzzles: why the 18th century might help

Este artículo analiza el comportamiento de los tipos de cambio entre España y Gran Bretaña durante el siglo XVIII; en concreto, de los tipos de cambio en el mercado de Londres sobre tres ciudades españolas, entre los años 1699 y 1826. Tras una breve exposición del funcionamiento del sistema monetario español y de la determinación de los tipos de cambio, estudiamos hasta qué punto el tipo de cambio respondía a variables fundamentales, utilizando dos modelos teóricos generalmente aceptados. Los resultados sugieren que la paridad de poder adquisitivo se cumplió durante el siglo XVIII, y que el tipo de cambio se movía de forma paralela a los diferenciales de inflación. Al final del siglo aparecen desviaciones de la paridad de poder adquisitivo, que atribuimos a alteraciones en el tipo de cambio real causadas por fluctuaciones en el comercio bilateral entre España y Gran Bretaña y, quizá, a diferenciales de productividad.This article explores the behavior of exchange rates in Spain during the 18th century. We analyze the exchange rates quoted in London on three Spanish cities between 1699 and 1826. After a brief review of how the Spanish monetary system worked and how exchange rates were determined, we assess to which extent the exchange rate responded to market fundamentals by testing two theoretical models of exchange rate determination. The results suggest that purchasing power parity held during the 18th century, with the exchange rate tracking quite closely the behavior of inflation differentials. Deviations from PPP appeared at the end of the century, due mostly to changes in the real exchange rate caused by the bilateral trade between Spain and Great Britain and, maybe, due to productivity differentials

Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility

In this paper we analyze the behavior of stock markets in six emerging countries. More specifically, we describe the bull and bear cycles of four Latin American and two Asian countries, comparing their characteristics during both phases and the degree of concordance of bullish periods. We divide our sample in two subperiods in order to account for differences induced by the financial liberalization processes that these countries went through in the early 1990's. We find that cycles in emerging countries tend to have shorter duration and larger amplitude and volatility than in developed countries. However, after financial liberalization Latin American stock markets have behaved more similarly to stock markets in developed countries whereas Asian countries have become more dissimilar. Concordance of cycles across markets has increased significantly over time, especially for Latin American countries after liberalization.

Changes in the Dynamic Behavior of Emerging Market Volatility: Revisiting the Effects of Financial L

In this paper we test whether the dynamic behavior of stock market volatility in six emerging economies has changed over the period 1976:01-2004:12. This period corresponds to years of profound development of both the financial and the productive sides in these emerging countries, but also to the years of the major financial crises. Our analysis suggests that changes in volatility behavior, while indeed present, may have been overstated in the past: simple specifications account for most of the dynamics of stock market volatility and therefore become powerful tools for volatility analysis. Additionally, we show that financial liberalization of emerging markets has generally reduced the level of market volatility and its sensititivity to news.

Structural Changes in Volatility and Stock Market Development: Evidence for Spain

In this paper we review the factors that may lead to structural changes in stock market volatility and present an analysis that assesses whether Spanish stock market volatility has changed significantly over the period 1941-2001. This period corresponds to the years of more profound development of both the financial and the productive sides of the economy in this country. We use alternative methodologies of endogenous breakpoint detection that estimate the dates at which the behavior of stock market volatility changed. The analysis of the Spanish stock market suggests that volatility has behaved in a different manner over the period 1941-2001: From 1972 to 2001, the years of more intense development of the stock market, the Spanish stock market has been characterized by a higher level of volatility and a lower persistence. This effect is partly attributable to the increased growth of trading volume brought about by the economic development process

Exchange Rate Behavior and Exchange Rate Puzzles: Why the XVIII Century Might Help

This article explores the behavior of exchange rates in Spain during the XVIII century. We posit that exchange rates were the result of both government intervention over nominal values of currencies and the estimate that the market –of bills of exchange- gave to the value of the currency. We analyze the exchange rates quoted in London on three Spanish cities between 1699 and 1826. After a brief overview of the functioning of the Spanish monetary system and of exchange rate determination, we assess the extent to which the exchange rate responded to market fundamentals by testing some theoretical models of exchange rate determination. The results suggest that purchasing power parity held during the XVIII century, with the exchange rate tracking quite closely the behavior of inflation differentials. Deviations from PPP appeared at the end of the century, due mostly to changes in the real exchange rate caused by the bilateral trade balance between Spain and Great Britain and, maybe, to productivity differentials.

Synthesis and reactivity of cyclopentadienyl chloro, imido and alkylidene tungsten (VI) complexes

This paper describes the synthesis and characterization of alkylidene pentamethylcyclopentadienyl imido tungsten(VI) complexes via α-hydrogen abstraction processes from suitable alkyl derivatives. Reaction of WCp*Cl4 with one equivalent of NH2R (R=tBu, 2,6-Me2–C6H3), two equivalents of NEt3 and subsequent oxidation with PCl5 affords the pentamethylcyclopentadienyl imido tungsten derivatives, WCp*(NtBu)Cl32 and WCp*(N-2,6-(Me2)–C6H3)Cl34. Alkylation of complexes 2 and 4 with 1.5 equivalents of ZnMe2 under appropriate conditions yields the trimethyl derivatives WCp*(NtBu)Me35 and WCp*(N-2,6-(Me2)–C6H3)Me3 6. Exposure of complex 6 to sun-light leads to the formation of WCp*(N-2,6-(Me2)–C6H3)(CH2)Me 7 through a α-hydrogen abstraction process. Analogously, complex 2 reacts with 1.5 equivalents of Mg(CH2Ph)-(thf)2 or three equivalents of LiCH2SiMe3 to give the alkylidene complexes, WCp*(NtBu)(CHPh)(CH2Ph) 8 and WCp*(NtBu)(CHSiMe3)Cl 9, through a spontaneous α-hydrogen abstraction process in these cases