Exploring the pathway from radicalisation to disengagement : comparison of dissonances experienced by a Jihadi foreign fighter and a right-wing extremist

The aim of our article is to analyse the disengagement process of a Swiss returnee from Syria and the emergence of dissonances during his involvement with the Islamic State (IS) and to compare this evolution to the pathway of a right-wing extremist willing to leave the violent extremist group Blood & Honour. Although the contexts of these extremist groups are very different, a number of elements – as the ideology based on hate, the groups’ internal pressure and the affinity for violence – are quite similar. The disengagement process of both extremists is analysed by means of reconstructive methods and the theory of cognitive dissonance (Festinger 1957), as well as by the current state of research on disengagement processes. This serves as a theoretical framework. The findings show that comparing their pathway to defection reveals a number of parallels: the experiences within the extremist groups, especially violent acts against group members, increased their dissonances and provided a trigger to an opening process and ultimately the attempt to opt out of the group

Fortschritte trotz fehlender Verbindlichkeit : antirassistische Bildung noch nicht flächendeckend

Zweitveröffentlichung in ZHAW digitalcollection mit freundlicher Genehmigung von EKR/CFR.In der Schweizer Bildungslandschaft ist der Begriff der Antidiskriminierungspädagogik noch wenig verankert. Ein Grund ist nebst dem Föderalismus die späte Aufarbeitung der Rolle der Schweiz bei Kolonialismus und Sklaverei. Trotzdem gibt es Fortschritte

Auf der Spur jihadistischer Radikalisierung in unseren Breitengraden

Die jihadistische Radikalisierung stellt auch in der Schweiz eine ernste Gefahr dar. Die Autorin behandelt in ihrem Beitrag Faktoren, die einen wesentlichen Einfluss auf die zukünftige Radikalisierung haben könnten. Als besonders wichtig betrachtet sie es, den Wertepluralismus einer liberalen Gesellschaft differenziert zu vermitteln, um der IS-Propaganda entgegenzuwirken, die diese als dekadent, promiskuitiv und verfallen bezeichnet

Mechanisms producing different precipitation patterns over north‐eastern Italy: insights from HyMeX‐SOP1 and previous events

During the first HyMeX Special Observation Period (SOP1) field campaign, the target site of north‐eastern Italy (NEI) experienced a large amount of precipitation, locally exceeding the climatological values and distributed among several heavy‐rainfall episodes. In particular, two events that occurred during the last period of the campaign drew our attention. These events had common large‐scale patterns and a similar mesoscale setting, characterised by southerly low‐level flow interacting with the Alpine orography, but the precipitation distribution was very different. During Intensive Observing Period IOP18 (31 October–1 November 2012), convective systems were responsible for intense rainfall mainly located over a flat area of the eastern Po Valley, well upstream of the orography. Conversely, during IOP19 (4/5 November 2012), heavy precipitation affected only the Alpine area. In addition to IOP18 and IOP19, the present study analyses other heavy‐precipitation episodes that display similar characteristics and which occurred over NEI during the autumn of recent years. A high‐resolution (2 km grid spacing) non‐hydrostatic NWP model and available observations are used for this purpose. The two different observed precipitation patterns are explained in terms of interaction between the impinging flow and the Alps. Depending on the thermodynamic profile, convection can be triggered when the impinging flow is forced to rise over a pre‐existing cold‐air layer at the base of the orography. In this situation a persistent blocked‐flow condition and upstream convergence are responsible for heavy rain localized over the plain. Conversely, if convection does not develop, flow‐over conditions are established and heavy rain affects the Alps. Numerical parameters proposed in the literature are used to support the analysis. Finally, the role of evaporative cooling beneath the convective systems is evaluated. It turns out that the stationarity of the systems upstream of the Alps is mainly attributable to persistent blocked‐flow conditions, while convective outflow slightly modifies the location of precipitation

OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE ON DEEP CONVECTION: CASE STUDY AND SENSITIVITY EXPERIMENTS

The non hydrostatic convection resolving model MOLOCH is employed in order to evaluate its capability to realistically simulate the evolution of a mesoscale convective system responsible for an episode of heavy rainfall and flood over southeastern France (Gard event). Numerical experiments indicate large sensitivity of precipitation amounts and distribution, due to different cell organization and propagation, to the specification of the initial conditions. Further experiments, aimed at studying the role played by the orography in triggering the convection and controlling its evolution, have been performed in order to characterize sensitivity to ambient wind and orography. Although the convective system remained almost stationary for many hours with maximum precipitation located at some distance upstream of the mountain main slope, simulations demonstrate that the presence of the orographic barrier is essential for both triggering and maintaining the mesoscale convective system. The intensity of precipitation turns out to be sensitive to small variations of the mean meridional wind component

Effects of Increasing Horizontal Resolution in a Convection-Permitting Model on Flood Forecasting: The 2011 Dramatic Events in Liguria, Italy

Abstract Coupling meteorological and hydrological models is a common and standard practice in the field of flood forecasting. In this study, a numerical weather prediction (NWP) chain based on the BOLogna Limited Area Model (BOLAM) and the MOdello LOCale in Hybrid coordinates (MOLOCH) was coupled with the operational hydrological forecasting chain of the Ligurian Hydro-Meteorological Functional Centre to simulate two major floods that occurred during autumn 2011 in northern Italy. Different atmospheric simulations were performed by varying the grid spacing (between 1.0 and 3.0 km) of the high-resolution meteorological model and the set of initial/boundary conditions driving the NWP chain. The aim was to investigate the impact of these parameters not only from a meteorological perspective, but also in terms of discharge predictions for the two flood events. The operational flood forecasting system was thus used as a tool to validate in a more pragmatic sense the quantitative precipitation forecast obtained from different configurations of the NWP system. The results showed an improvement in flood prediction when a high-resolution grid was employed for atmospheric simulations. In turn, a better description of the evolution of the precipitating convective systems was beneficial for the hydrological prediction. Although the simulations underestimated the severity of both floods, the higher-resolution model chain would have provided useful information to the decision-makers in charge of protecting citizens

Orographic triggering of long lived convection in three dimensions

A significant fraction of the occurrences of intense flash floods is due to quasi-stationary or long-lived convection that may insist on the same place for many hours, producing high values of accumulated precipitation. One of the elements that favour the initiation and anchoring of the convective system (MCS) is the orography. In one of the most severe floods (Gard basin in southern France, 8-9 September 2002), the orography of the Massif Central played a rather unusual role, favouring the onset and maintenance of the MCS at some distance upstream of the main orographic slope. In the present work the initial atmospheric conditions of this event have been largely idealized, taking horizontally uniform values for wind, temperature and humidity profiles, and a simplified isolated orography representing the sole Massif Central. A convective system is initiated in the non-hydrostatic simulations, embedded in a quasi-stationary solution of flow over the orography. It is shown that the triggering of convection occurs in the convergence zone immediately upstream of the orographic obstacle, at an altitude comparable with the mountain height. The subsequent growth of the mesoscale convective system is associated with a slow eastward drift, with the intense precipitation located upstream of the mountain and with the formation of a gust front that propagates against the incoming basic flow. Sensitivity experiments show that the development of convection critically depends on mountain height and moisture content. Although the results obtained in such idealized conditions do not reflect all the observed characteristics of the real event, they contribute to clarify the role of the orography in triggering and maintaining strong convection

Impact of Rainfall Assimilation on High-Resolution Hydrometeorological Forecasts over Liguria, Italy

Abstract The autumn of 2014 was characterized by a number of severe weather episodes over Liguria (northern Italy) associated with floods and remarkable damage. This period is selected as a test bed to evaluate the performance of a rainfall assimilation scheme based on the nudging of humidity profiles and applied to a convection-permitting meteorological model at high resolution. The impact of the scheme is assessed in terms of quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) applying an object-oriented verification methodology that evaluates the structure, amplitude, and location (SAL) of the precipitation field, but also in terms of hydrological discharge prediction. To attain this aim, the meteorological model is coupled with the operational hydrological forecasting chain of the Ligurian Hydrometeorological Functional Centre, and the whole system is implemented taking operational requirements into account. The impact of rainfall data assimilation is large during the assimilation period and still relevant in the following 3 h of the free forecasts, but hardly lasts more than 6 h. However, this can improve the hydrological predictions. Moreover, the impact of the assimilation is dependent on the environment characteristics, being more effective when nonequilibrium convection dominates, and thus an accurate prediction of the local triggering for the development of the precipitation system is required