Un nuevo modelo dinámico de mortalidad basado en la edad clave y uso de técnicas de remuestreo para su evaluación

El objetivo de esta tesis está relacionado con tratar de minimizar el riesgo de longevidad mediante su adecuada modelización. Así, se va a desarrollar un modelo dinámico de mortalidad que está centrado en estudiar los cambios y/o variaciones que sufren las tasas de mortalidad de un año a otro. El modelo que aquí se presenta, asume que las variaciones que se producen en la curva de mortalidad están linealmente relacionadas con un número reducido de factores. Estos factores de riesgo se corresponden con una o varias tasas de mortalidad de una edad concreta, es decir, dicho factor o factores de riesgo se identifican con las variaciones de las tasas de mortalidad de lo que denominaremos “edades clave”. Una de las principales ventajas del modelo es que la tasa de mortalidad de la edad clave es totalmente observable y contrasta con el resto de los modelos alternativos que capturan la dinámica de la mortalidad a través de un parámetro que no es observable. Tras una primera propuesta de un nuevo modelo de mortalidad basado en la edad clave, se proponen varias mejoras a ese modelo, utilizar máxima verosimilitud en la estimación de los parámetros, estimar todos los parámetros en un único paso y reducir de manera significativa el número de parámetros a solo seis. También a modo de ejemplo, se ha calculado el V@R y CV@R, dos medidas desarrolladas para gestionar el riesgo de longevidad y que ponen de manifiesto la capacidad del modelo de cara a su utilización para la medición a largo plazo del riesgo de longevidad. Por último, se describe la utilidad y simplicidad de utilizar los métodos de remuestreo como herramienta para medir la capacidad predictiva de los modelos de mortalidad. Conviene señalar que representa una novedad la utilización de estos métodos para calibrar la capacidad predictiva de datos en forma de panel y en especial, para datos de mortalidad. Además, los resultados se van a mostrar mediante la utilización de los gráficos de radar, una herramienta muy interesante para resumir y ordenar la capacidad predictiva de diferentes modelos

Afrontar la vida tras un accidente cerebrovascular: Propuesta de intervención grupal entre iguales

El accidente cerebrovascular es una alteración brusca y repentina del flujo sanguíneo cerebral, con diferente clínica según la parte afectada. El incremento de los factores de riesgo cardiovascular, hace que aumente su incidencia. En el proceso agudo se desarrolla la mayoría de la actividad profesional, olvidando ciertos cuidados posteriores de gran importancia, por la variedad de secuelas que se producen tras el ictus, y que genera cambios en la vida de los pacientes. La metodología de formación “Entre Iguales” no está muy desarrollada en España, a pesar de la evidencia en su efectividad. Pretende potenciar el rol del paciente como principal responsable del cuidado de su salud, fomentar el autocuidado y mejorar su calidad de vida, empleando el apoyo “entre iguales”. Se propone elaborar un programa de educación grupal para fomentar conductas saludables que ayuden a afrontar a los pacientes su nueva vida tras un accidente cerebrovascular, basado en el método de paciente experto o formación entre iguales como herramienta de educación sanitaria. Se desarrolla un programa de educación para la salud siguiendo el método del “Paciente Experto” y elaboración de una guía de autocuidados para pacientes y familiares que complemente las sesiones de formación. El desarrollo del “Paciente Experto” en pacientes con ictus y sus familiares, fomentará un incremento en el autocuidado y por consiguiente en su calidad de vida, permitiendo que manejen su enfermedad y estado de salud.Grado en Enfermerí

Sustainable development as a pedagogical challenge for the 21st century university

Actualmente los organismos internacionales implicados en la educación, le asignan a las universidades la responsabilidad social en el abordaje interdisciplinar de los principales retos mundiales. Entre ellos ha de citarse la sostenibilidad, la inclusión educativa y la cooperación al desarrollo, buscando sinergias que permitan hacer realidad estos desafíos en las aulas de los centros de Educación Superior. El objetivo de este trabajo es investigar las oportunidades y barreras universitarias para emprender tales misiones. La metodología consiste, en primer lugar, en construir un marco teórico que permita establecer relaciones entre educación para la sostenibilidad, inclusión, pobreza y movilidad. En una segunda parte se aborda la técnica del aprendizaje servicio y la ecologización del currículum universitario, a nivel conceptual y desde las percepciones de docentes universitarios, a partir de un estudio cualitativo realizado en la Facultad de Educación de la Universidad de Málaga. Las conclusiones desvelan la relación entre una educación que vele por la justicia social y ambiental, además de las dificultades para trabajar la sostenibilidad, debidas a la falta de formación del profesorado universitarioCurrently, international organizations in¬volved in education assign to universities the social responsibility of designing inter¬disciplinary approaches to the study of major global challenges. These global challenges, including sustainability, educational inclu¬sion and development cooperation, present an opportunity for seeking synergies that will make the study of these challenges a reality in the classrooms of higher education centers. The objective of this work is to in¬vestigate the opportunities and barriers uni¬versities face for undertaking such missions. The methodology consists, in the first place, of constructing a theoretical framework that allows for establishing relationships within education for studying sustainability, inclu¬sion, poverty and mobility. The second part deals with the technique of service learning and environmentalization of the university curriculum. We address the latter at a con¬ceptual level as well as from perceptions of university teachers based on a qualitative study done by the Faculty of Education of the University of Malaga. The conclusions reveal the relationship between an educa¬tion that ensures social and environmental justice, in addition to the difficulties of work¬ing towards sustainability due to the lack of training of university teaching staff

cxr: A toolbox for modelling species coexistence in R

Recent developments in modern coexistence theory (MCT) have advanced our understanding of how species interactions among themselves and with the environment influence community dynamics. Although the formulation of MCT is mathematically clear, its application to empirical cases is still challenging, which precludes its adoption by a large range of ecologists and evolutionary biologists interested in broad questions related to community assembly and the maintenance of species diversity. We developedcxr, anrpackage that provides a complete toolbox for calculating species vital rates and interaction parameters, from which the user can obtain estimates of coexistence outcomes based on stabilizing niche differences and average fitness differences. Our aim is to offer a highly versatile package to accommodate different research needs. This means that the user can define population models, use different optimization algorithms and include the effect of external covariates on species interactions, which may include environmental variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation, salinity) and biotic controls (e.g. predation, pollination, mycorrhizae). To illustrate the functionality and versatility ofcxr, we provide a complete set of population dynamic models and a dataset from a highly diverse grassland community. By building bridges between MCT formulation and its implementation, we provide tools to obtain a deeper mechanistic understanding of how species interactions determine basic patterns such as species abundances and dominance, which are core information for many applied fields, such as conservation, restoration and invasion biology. Finally, the package is not limited taxonomically to any particular group. The application of tools derived from MCT to a wide range of different systems can create feedbacks between empirical and theoretical studies in a way that stimulates a better understanding of the processes maintaining biodiversity

The spatial configuration of biotic interactions shapes coexistence-area relationships in an annual plant community

The increase of species richness with area is a universal phenomenon on Earth. However, this observation contrasts with our poor understanding of how these species-area relationships (SARs) emerge from the collective effects of area, spatial heterogeneity, and local interactions. By combining a structuralist approach with five years of empirical observations in a highly-diverse Mediterranean grassland, we show that spatial heterogeneity plays a little role in the accumulation of species richness with area in our system. Instead, as we increase the sampled area more species combinations are realized, and they coexist mainly due to direct pairwise interactions rather than by changes in single-species dominance or by indirect interactions. We also identify a small set of transient species with small population sizes that are consistently found across spatial scales. These findings empirically support the importance of the architecture of species interactions together with stochastic events for driving coexistence- and species-area relationships. Local patterns of species coexistence across scales could determine the shape of species-area relationships. Here the authors apply a structuralist approach to empirical data on annual plant communities to assess how species interactions shape coexistence- and species-area relationships

Adaptive activities for inclusive learning using multitouch tabletops: An approach

Proceedings of the International Workshop on Personalization Approaches in Learning Environments. Girona, Spain, July 15, 2011.Also published online by CEUR Workshop Proceedings (CEUR-WS.org, ISSN 1613-0073)People with cognitive disabilities have some difficulties with memory, literacy skills, attention and problem solving. Computers and specifically, adaptation mechanisms can be used to improve their learning. The adaptation allows fitting the learning process to each user. This paper presents a proposal to adapt learning activities while people are interacting using multitouch tabletops. The adaptation mechanism takes into account structural aspects, content adaptation and the interaction provided.This work has been funded by the Spanish Government (ASIES Project - Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación de España, TIN2010-17344). The D2-Player has been funded by Fundación Sindrome de Down Madrid

Data‐Driven Low‐Frequency Oscillation Event Detection Strategy for Railway Electrification Networks

Low-frequency oscillations (LFO) occur in railway electrification systems due to the incorporation of new trains with switching converters. As a result, the increased harmonic content can cause catenary stability problems under certain conditions. Most of the research published on this topic to date is focused on modelling the event and analysing it using frequency spectrums. However, in recent years, due to the new technologies linked to Big Data (BD) and data mining (DM), a new opportunity to study and detect LFO events by means of machine-learning (ML) methods has emerged. Trains continuously collect data from the most important catenary variables, which offers new resources for analysing this type of event. Therefore, this article presents the design and implementation of a data-driven LFO event detection strategy for AC railway network scenarios. Compared to previous investigations, a new approach to analyse and detect LFO events, based on field data and ML, is presented. To obtain the most appropriate detection approach for the context of this application, on the one hand, this investigation includes a comparison of machine-learning algorithms (support vector machine, logistic regression, random forest, k-nearest neighbours, naïve Bayes) which have been trained with real field data. On the other hand, an analysis of key parameters and features to optimize event detection is also included. Thus, the most significant result of this work is the high metric values of the solution, reaching values above 97% in accuracy and 93% in F-1 score with the random forest algorithm. In addition, the applicability and training of data-driven methods with real field data are demonstrated. This automatic detection strategy can help with speeding up and improving LFO detection tasks that used to be performed manually. Finally, it is worth mentioning that this research has been structured based on the CRISP-DM methodology, established as the de facto approach for industrial DM projects

Error-based teaching to improve primary school students’ understanding of decimal numbers

Work supported by ERDF–FEDER and the Castilla-La Mancha Regional Administration under grant SBPLY/19/180501/000278

Differences in the effects of a startle stimulus on rate of force development between resistance-trained rock climbers and untrained individuals: Evidence for reticulospinal adaptations?

The aim of the present cross-sectional study was to determine if chronic rock climbing and climbing-specific resistance training (RT) would modify the reticulospinal tract (RST) efficacy. Sixteen healthy, elite level climbers (CL; n = 16, 5 F; 29.8 ± 6.7 years) with 12 ± 7 years of climbing and climbing-specific RT experience and 15 healthy recreationally active participants (CON; n = 15, 4 F; 24.6 ± 5.9 years), volunteered for the study. We quantified RST efficacy by comparing the effects of a startle stimulus over reaction time (Rtime) and measured rate of force development (RFD) and surface electromyography (sEMG) in representative muscles during powerful hand grip contractions. Both groups performed two Rtime tasks while performing rapid, powerful gripping with the right hand (Task 1) or during 3-s-long maximal voluntary right hand grip contractions in response to an imperative visual signal alone (V), or combined with a auditory-non startle stimulus (A) or/and startling auditory stimulus (S). We also tested the reproducibility of these responses on two separate days in CON. Intersession reliability ranged from 0.34 to 0.96 for all variables. The CL versus CON was 37% stronger (p = 0.003). The S stimulus decreased Rtime and increased RFD and sEMG in both groups during both tasks (all p < 0.001). Rtime was similar between groups in all conditions. However, CL had a greater RFD from 50 to 100 ms compared with CON only after the S stimulus in both tasks (p < 0.05, d = 0.85–0.96). The data tentatively suggest that chronic rock climbing and climbing-specific RT might improve RST efficacy, by increasing RST input to the α-motoneurons13 página

Pathways to global-change effects on biodiversity: new opportunities for dynamically forecasting demography and species interactions

In structured populations, persistence under environmental change may be particularly threatened when abiotic factors simultaneously negatively affect survival and reproduction of several life cycle stages, as opposed to a single stage. Such effects can then be exacerbated when species interactions generate reciprocal feedbacks between the demographic rates of the different species. Despite the importance of such demographic feedbacks, forecasts that account for them are limited as individual-based data on interacting species are perceived to be essential for such mechanistic forecasting-but are rarely available. Here, we first review the current shortcomings in assessing demographic feedbacks in population and community dynamics. We then present an overview of advances in statistical tools that provide an opportunity to leverage population-level data on abundances of multiple species to infer stage-specific demography. Lastly, we showcase a state-of-the-art Bayesian method to infer and project stage-specific survival and reproduction for several interacting species in a Mediterranean shrub community. This case study shows that climate change threatens populations most strongly by changing the interaction effects of conspecific and heterospecific neighbours on both juvenile and adult survival. Thus, the repurposing of multi-species abundance data for mechanistic forecasting can substantially improve our understanding of emerging threats on biodiversity.12 página