The Use of the Technological Innovation Systems Framework to Identify the Critical Factors for a Successful Sustainability Transition to Rooftop Solar in Low-Income Communities within South Africa

South Africa has a large unemployment rate with many households almost completely dependent on social grants for survival. Under such circumstances the potential of rooftop solar in developing vibrant and local energy micro-economies, which can generate and trade in electricity, is highly attractive. In this chapter, it is shown that such systems are uneconomic if considered from the perspective of a private investor. However a different conclusion emerges with respect to public funding. Even without considering the additional benefits of improved health and learning opportunities, lower levels of crime and lower levels of non-payment, rooftop solar becomes an attractive investment for the state, especially in areas of high solar irradiation. The ‘electrification grant’ could be delivered in several ways including the use of a subsidised feed-in-tariff. An initial analysis using the framework of technological innovation systems shows that much of the required structure for a rooftop solar system is already in place. However the state will need to boost efforts to train technicians to install and maintain the infrastructure, accelerate its initiatives to support local manufacture of photovoltaic modules, and strengthen the capability of the science and technology system to support the processes of technology diffusion and adoption

Structured Analysis Reveals Fundamental Mathematical Relationships between Wind and Solar Generations and the United Kingdom Electricity System

The use of wind and solar generation is fundamental to the decarbonisation of the United Kingdom electricity system. However, the optimal level of renewable energy as a proportion of total demand is still being debated. In this paper, several models, whose aims are to predict the efficiency of future system configurations, are explained. The models use historic records from the Gridwatch website for the year 2017, which are then scaled accordingly. The model predictions are first demonstrated for the 2035 Scenario as proposed by the National Grid in FES 2022. The analysis reveals that at least one third of the available wind and solar generation will exceed the ability of the electricity system to use it and will have to be shed. By defining an efficiency measure, the Marginal Decarbonisation Efficiency, which quantifies the incremental extent to which wind generation can decarbonise the electricity system, it is shown that the 2035 Scenario will have a low efficiency. Moreover, it will require the use of combined cycle gas turbines, which is at variants with the predictions of the National Grid steady state model. The paper also describes the derivation of a Generic Model, which allows the level of wind energy and dispatchable generation for all system configurations likely to be encountered in future decades, to be calculated without the use of computer models.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, 1 table, unpublished pape

Development of Mathematical Models to Explore the Potential of Wind Fleets to Decarbonize Electricity Grid Systems

Real-time records of energy generation in the UK and Germany have been used to develop models for each country’s electricity generation system, the objective being to provide a means of determining the likely economic limits of wind fleets and their consequent ability to decarbonise their grids. The results from the models, expressed in the form of marginal efficiencies, have then been codified in a pair of simple look-up tables, obviating the need for further reference to the models and providing a simple means of assessing the implications for the grids and their wind fleets of a range of future grid configurations, including increases in wind and solar fleet capacities, anticipated future loss in both countries of nuclear-generating capacity, possible replacement of petrol and diesel passenger vehicles with electric vehicles, and, for the UK only, the conversion of domestic boilers from gas to electricity. It is apparent that headroom, being the difference between annual average grid demand and base generation, is the single most important factor in determining how much wind capacity may be economically deployed in decarbonising grids

Balancing Renewable Energy Capacity, Time of Use Tariffs and Energy Storage in Energy Systems

The intermittency of solar energy predicates the simultaneous use of energy storage to maintain secure supplies. However, storage is expensive to instal and maintain, suggesting that there is an optimum design based on the price tolerance of electricity markets. In this chapter, a method for the calculation of the optimal size of a battery energy storage system (BESS), linked to utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) capacity, is presented. The method, which is illustrated by its application to the South African national grid (GridSA), uses historical generation/demand data to construct a spreadsheet model of the energy system. The model assumes that the difference between base load and energy demand, referred to as headroom, will be met using variable energy sources, including wind, solar, diesel/gas and batteries. Optimal sizing of these components to minimize the use of gas in summer, and make maximum use of low-cost solar and wind, leads to a configuration for GridSA consisting of a 22 GW base load (coal and nuclear), a PV installed capacity of 17.8 GW and a BESS capacity of 3.7 GW/10.4 GWh. A peak time of use tariff of ZAR3,500 per MWh (almost double the average tariff) will be optimal to build an economic case for energy storage as a sustainable option for GridSA

Evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of Dementia Care Mapping™ to enable person-centred care for people with dementia and their carers (DCM-EPIC) in care homes: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Up to 90 % of people living with dementia in care homes experience one or more behaviours that staff may describe as challenging to support (BSC). Of these agitation is the most common and difficult to manage. The presence of agitation is associated with fewer visits from relatives, poorer quality of life and social isolation. It is recommended that agitation is treated through psychosocial interventions. Dementia Care Mapping™ (DCM™) is an established, widely used observational tool and practice development cycle, for ensuring a systematic approach to providing person-centred care. There is a body of practice-based literature and experience to suggests that DCM™ is potentially effective but limited robust evidence for its effectiveness, and no examination of its cost-effectiveness, as a UK health care intervention. Therefore, a definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT) of DCM™ in the UK is urgently needed. Methods/design A pragmatic, multi-centre, cluster-randomised controlled trial of Dementia Care Mapping (DCM™) plus Usual Care (UC) versus UC alone, where UC is the normal care delivered within the care home following a minimum level of dementia awareness training. The trial will take place in residential, nursing and dementia-specialist care homes across West Yorkshire, Oxfordshire and London, with residents with dementia. A random sample of 50 care homes will be selected within which a minimum of 750 residents will be registered. Care homes will be randomised in an allocation ratio of 3:2 to receive either intervention or control. Outcome measures will be obtained at 6 and 16 months following randomisation. The primary outcome is agitation as measured by the Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory, at 16 months post randomisation. Key secondary outcomes are other BSC and quality of life. There will be an integral cost-effectiveness analysis and a process evaluation. Discussion The protocol was refined following a pilot of trial procedures. Changes include replacement of a questionnaire, whose wording caused some residents distress, to an adapted version specifically designed for use in care homes, a change to the randomisation stratification factors, adaption in how the staff measures are collected to encourage greater compliance, and additional reminders to intervention homes of when mapping cycles are due, via text message. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN82288852. Registered on 16 January 2014. Full protocol version and date: v7.1: 18 December 2015

Teaching on the edge of chaos: Report on ‘The future of universities in a post-COVID-19 world’

You might well ask, what more could or should be said about COVID-19? Don’t we all have COVID-fatigue? Is it not clear that everything, not just universities, will change post-pandemic? Yes, to all of these questions, but in this latest edition (number 5) of the ASSAf Presidential Roundtables on ‘Science, Scholarship and Society’, Professor Jonathan Jansen, ASSAf President and Distinguished Professor in Education (Stellenbosch University), chaired a lively, engaging and important discussion on ‘The future of universities in a post-COVID-19 world’.http://www.sajs.co.zahj2020Graduate School of Technology Management (GSTM