A Guide to Solar Power Forecasting using ARMA Models

We describe a simple and succinct methodology to develop hourly auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models to forecast power output from a photovoltaic solar generator. We illustrate how to build an ARMA model, to use statistical tests to validate it, and construct hourly samples. The resulting model inherits nice properties for embedding it into more sophisticated operation and planning models, while at the same time showing relatively good accuracy. Additionally, it represents a good forecasting tool for sample generation for stochastic energy optimization models

Vibration-Based structural health monitoring using piezoelectric transducers and parametric t-SNE

In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the so-called parametric t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (P-t-SNE), comparing it to the performance of the t-SNE, the non-parametric version. The methodology used in this study is introduced for the detection and classification of structural changes in the field of structural health monitoring. This method is based on the combination of principal component analysis (PCA) and P-t-SNE, and it is applied to an experimental case study of an aluminum plate with four piezoelectric transducers. The basic steps of the detection and classification process are: (i) the raw data are scaled using mean-centered group scaling and then PCA is applied to reduce its dimensionality; (ii) P-t-SNE is applied to represent the scaled and reduced data as 2-dimensional points, defining a cluster for each structural state; and (iii) the current structure to be diagnosed is associated with a cluster employing two strategies: (a) majority voting; and (b) the sum of the inverse distances. The results in the frequency domain manifest the strong performance of P-t-SNE, which is comparable to the performance of t-SNE but outperforms t-SNE in terms of computational cost and runtime. When the method is based on P-t-SNE, the overall accuracy fluctuates between 99.5% and 99.75%.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Linear Battery Models for Power Systems Analysis

Mathematical models are just models. The desire to describe battery energy storage system (BESS) operation using computationally tractable model formulations has motivated a long-standing discussion in both the scientific and industrial communities. Linear BESS models are the most widely used so far. However, finding suitable linear BESS models has been controversial. This paper focuses on the description of linear BESS models. Four linear BESS formulations are presented, among the most popularly used. A new formulation is also proposed. The 5 BESS models are tested in 100 random BESS and 1.450 random samples of daily profiles of renewable generation. Two classical problems of power systems, namely, the set-point tracking problem and the transmission expansion planning problem, are selected for numerical analysis. Five thousand simulations are used to draw a better interpretation of each linear formulation presented and showcase specific challenges of BESS models. Practical recommendations are provided based on the findings.Comment: Power Systems Computation Conference (PSCC) 202

Prediction of turbulent reactive flows by means of numerical simulations applied to anaerobic digesters

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Damage diagnosis for offshore fixed wind turbines

This paper proposes a damage diagnosis strategy to detect and classify different type of damages in a laboratory offshore-fixed wind turbine model. The proposed method combines an accelerometer sensor network attached to the structure with a conceived algorithm based on principal component analysis (PCA) with quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA). The paradigm of structural health monitoring can be undertaken as a pattern recognition problem (comparison between the data collected from the healthy structure and the current structure to diagnose given a known excitation). However, in this work, as the strategy is designed for wind turbines, only the output data from the sensors is used but the excitation is assumed unknown (as in reality is provided by the wind). The proposed methodology is tested in an experimental laboratory tower modeling an offshore-fixed jacked-type wind turbine. The obtained results show the reliability of the proposed approach.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Estrès, drogues i activitat cerebral

Si bé la relació entre l'estrès i algunes addiccions pot semblar evident, no totes les persones actuen de la mateixa manera enfront de les drogues o a situacions de gran tensió emocional. Aquesta tesi doctoral analitza l'activació del Sistema Nerviós Central (SNC) de rates, per intentar comprendre la influència de les diferències individuals a la resposta enfront d'aquest tipus de estímuls