92 research outputs found

    Option prices under Bayesian learning: implied volatility dynamics and predictive densities

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    This paper shows that many of the empirical biases of the Black and Scholes option pricing model can be explained by Bayesian learning effects. In the context of an equilibrium model where dividend news evolve on a binomial lattice with unknown but recursively updated probabilities we derive closed-form pricing formulas for European options. Learning is found to generate asymmetric skews in the implied volatility surface and systematic patterns in the term structure of option prices. Data on S&P 500 index option prices is used to back out the parameters of the underlying learning process and to predict the evolution in the cross-section of option prices. The proposed model leads to lower out-of-sample forecast errors and smaller hedging errors than a variety of alternative option pricing models, including Black-Scholes and a GARCH model

    Autophagy in periodontitis patients and gingival fibroblasts: unraveling the link between chronic diseases and inflammation

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    Authors are indebted with Ms Monica Glebocki for extensive editing of the manuscriptBackground: Periodontitis, the most prevalent chronic inflammatory disease, has been related to cardiovascular diseases. Autophagy provides a mechanism for the turnover of cellular organelles and proteins through a lysosome-dependent degradation pathway. The aim of this research was to study the role of autophagy in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from patients with periodontitis and gingival fibroblasts treated with a lipopolysaccharide of Porphyromonas gingivalis. Autophagy-dependent mechanisms have been proposed in the pathogenesis of inflammatory disorders and in other diseases related to periodontitis, such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Thus it is important to study the role of autophagy in the pathophysiology of periodontitis. Methods: Peripheral blood mononuclear cells from patients with periodontitis (n = 38) and without periodontitis (n = 20) were used to study autophagy. To investigate the mechanism of autophagy, we evaluated the influence of a lipopolysaccharide from P. gingivalis in human gingival fibroblasts, and autophagy was monitored morphologically and biochemically. Autophagosomes were observed by immunofluorescence and electron microscopy. Results: We found increased levels of autophagy gene expression and high levels of mitochondrial reactive oxygen species production in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from patients with periodontitis compared with controls. A significantly positive correlation between both was observed. In human gingival fibroblasts treated with lipopolysaccharide from P. gingivalis, there was an increase of protein and transcript of autophagy-related protein 12 (ATG12) and microtubule-associated protein 1 light chain 3 alpha LC3. A reduction of mitochondrial reactive oxygen species induced a decrease in autophagy whereas inhibition of autophagy in infected cells increased apoptosis, showing the protective role of autophagy. Conclusion: Results from the present study suggest that autophagy is an important and shared mechanism in other conditions related to inflammation or alterations of the immune system, such as periodontiti

    High incidence of Noonan syndrome features including short stature and pulmonic stenosis in patients carrying NF1 missense mutations affecting p.Arg1809: genotype-phenotype correlation

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    Neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) is one of the most frequent genetic disorders, affecting 1:3,000 worldwide. Identification of genotype-phenotype correlations is challenging because of the wide range clinical variability, the progressive nature of the disorder, and extreme diversity of the mutational spectrum. We report 136 individuals with a distinct phenotype carrying one of five different NF1 missense mutations affecting p.Arg1809. Patients presented with multiple cafe-au-lait macules (CALM) with or without freckling and Lisch nodules, but no externally visible plexiform neurofibromas or clear cutaneous neurofibromas were found. About 25% of the individuals had Noonan-like features. Pulmonic stenosis and short stature were significantly more prevalent compared with classic cohorts (P<0.0001). Developmental delays and/or learning disabilities were reported in over 50% of patients. Melanocytes cultured from a CALM in a segmental NF1-patient showed two different somatic NF1 mutations, p.Arg1809Cys and a multi-exon deletion, providing genetic evidence that p.Arg1809Cys is a loss-of-function mutation in the melanocytes and causes a pigmentary phenotype. Constitutional missense mutations at p.Arg1809 affect 1.23% of unrelated NF1 probands in the UAB cohort, therefore this specific NF1 genotype-phenotype correlation will affect counseling and management of a significant number of patients
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