Modelos matemáticos de pronóstico para cáncer de cérvix localmente avanzado. Validación externa de los modelos existentes

Los modelos de pronóstico son procedimientos matemáticos capaces de obtener la probabilidad de riesgo absoluta para un desenlace específico de un individuo, basado en las características biográficas, biológicas, terapéuticas y clínicas. Implican el uso de una metodología singular y compleja. Un paso decisivo para su utilización beneficiosa es realizar una correcta validación. En la actualidad, existen múltiples modelos de pronóstico desarrollados para el cáncer de cérvix localmente avanzado (CCLA), estadio IB2 a IVA de la Federación Internacional de Ginecología y Obstetricia (FIGO). No todos los modelos de pronóstico están validados externamente, condición necesaria para su utilización clínica. 1.3 Objetivos. Validar externamente los modelos de pronóstico para el CCLA desarrollados en pacientes tratadas con quimio-radioterapia concurrente en una cohorte independiente. Identificar y contrastar criterios de buen uso de los procedimientos de investigación pronóstica y validación de modelos predictivos..

Geographical and Temporal Variability of Ultra-Processed Food Consumption in the Spanish Population: Findings from the DRECE Study.

The consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) has increased in recent decades, worldwide. Evidence on the negative impacts of food processing on health outcomes has also been steadily increasing. The aim of this study is to describe changes in consumption patterns of ultra-processed foods in the Spanish population over time and their geographical variability. Data from four representative cohorts of the Spanish population were used (1991–1996–2004–2008). Dietary information was collected using a validated frequency questionnaire and categorized using the NOVA classification. A total increase of 10.8% in UPF consumption between 1991 and 2008 was found in Spain (p-value < 0.001). The products contributing most to UPF consumption were sugar-sweetened beverages, processed meats, dairy products, and sweets. Those who consumed more ultra-processed foods were younger (p-value < 0.001) and female (p-value = 0.01). Significant differences between the different geographical areas of Spain were found. The eastern part of Spain was the area with the lowest UPF consumption, whereas the north-western part was the area with the highest increase in UPF consumption. Given the negative effect that the consumption of ultra-processed foods has on health, it is necessary to implement public health policies to curb this increase in UPF consumption.post-print700 K

Two Dimensions of Nutritional Value: Nutri-Score and NOVA

Front-of-pack labels can improve the ability of consumers to identify which foods are healthier, making them a useful public health tool. Nutri-Score is a front-of-pack labelling system adopted by several European countries. This system ranks foods according to their nutritional quality, but does not consider other dimensions such as the degree of food processing. The aim of this study is to compare the nutritional quality (as assessed by Nutri-Score) and the ultra-processing (as assessed by the NOVA classification) of foods in the Open Food Facts database. A simple correspondence analysis was carried out to study the relationship between the two systems. Ultra-processed foods (NOVA 4) were found in all Nutri-Score categories, ranging from 26.08% in nutritional category A, 51.48% in category B, 59.09% in category C, 67.39% in category D to up to 83.69% in nutritional category E. Given the negative effect that the consumption of ultra-processed foods has on different aspects of health, front-of-pack labelling with Nutri-Score should at least be accompanied by complementary labelling indicating the level of processing, such as the NOVA classification

The prognosis of patients hospitalized with a first episode of heart failure, validation of two scores: PREDICE and AHEAD.

Purpose: Heart failure (HF) is a chronic, frequent and disabling condition but with a modifiable course and a large potential for improving. The aim of this study was to validate the two available clinical prediction rules for mortality at one year in patients with primo- hospitalization for decompensated HF: PREDICE and AHEAD. The secondary aim was to evaluate in our setting the changes in the clinical pattern of HF in the last decade in patients hospitalized for a first episode of the disease. Patients and methods: A prospective multicenter cohort study, which included 180 patients hospitalized with “de novo” HF was conducted to validate the PREDICE score. Calibration and discrimination measurements were calculated for the PREDICE model and the PREDICE score (using the validation cohort of the PREDICE) and the AHEAD score (using both the development and the validation cohort of the PREDICE). Results: For the PREDICE models, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57–0.79) and the calibration slope 0.65 (95% CI: 0.21–1.20). For the PREDICE score AUC was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.47–0.71) and slope 0.42 (95% CI: −0.20–1.17). For the AHEAD score the AUC was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.62–0.73) and slope 1.38 (95% CI: 0.62–0.73) when used the development cohort of PREDICE and the AUC was 0.58 (95% CI: 0.49–0.67), and slope 0.68 (95% CI: −0.06 to 1.47) when used its validation cohort. Conclusion: The present study shows that the two risk scores available for patients with primo-hospitalization for decompensated HF (PREDICE and AHEAD) are not currently valid for predicting mortality at one-year. In our setting the clinical spectrum of hospitalized patients with new-onset HF has been modified over time. The study underscores the need to validate the prognostic models before clinical implementation.Ministerio de Sanidad PI070945

Serum Potassium Dynamics During Acute Heart Failure Hospitalization

[Abstract] Background. Available information about prognostic implications of potassium levels alteration in the setting of acute heart failure (AHF) is scarce. Objectives. We aim to describe the prevalence of dyskalemia (hypo or hyperkalemia), its dynamic changes during AHF-hospitalization, and its long-term clinical impact after hospitalization. Methods. We analyzed 1779 patients hospitalized with AHF who were included in the REDINSCOR II registry. Patients were classified in three groups, according to potassium levels both on admission and discharge: hypokalemia (potassium  5 mEq/L). Results. The prevalence of hypokalemia and hyperkalemia on admission was 8.2 and 4.6%, respectively, and 6.4 and 2.7% at discharge. Hyperkalemia on admission was associated with higher in-hospital mortality (OR = 2.32 [95% CI: 1.04–5.21] p = 0.045). Among patients with hypokalemia on admission, 79% had normalized potassium levels at discharge. In the case of patients with hyperkalemia on admission, 89% normalized kalemia before discharge. In multivariate Cox regression, dyskalemia was associated with higher 12-month mortality, (HR = 1.48 [95% CI, 1.12–1.96], p = 0.005). Among all patterns of dyskalemia persistent hypokalemia (HR = 3.17 [95% CI: 1.71–5.88]; p < 0.001), and transient hyperkalemia (HR = 1.75 [95% CI: 1.07–2.86]; p = 0.023) were related to reduced 12-month survival. Conclusions. Potassium levels alterations are frequent and show a dynamic behavior during AHF admission. Hyperkalemia on admission is an independent predictor of higher in-hospital mortality. Furthermore, persistent hypokalemia and transient hyperkalemia on admission are independent predictors of 12-month mortality.This work is funded by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund, through the CIBER in cardiovascular diseases (CB16/11/00502)

Plasma Gelsolin Reinforces the Diagnostic Value of FGF-21 and GDF-15 for Mitochondrial Disorders

Mitochondrial disorders (MD) comprise a group of heterogeneous clinical disorders for which non-invasive diagnosis remains a challenge. Two protein biomarkers have so far emerged for MD detection, FGF-21 and GDF-15, but the identification of additional biomarkers capable of improving their diagnostic accuracy is highly relevant. Previous studies identified Gelsolin as a regulator of cell survival adaptations triggered by mitochondrial defects. Gelsolin presents a circulating plasma isoform (pGSN), whose altered levels could be a hallmark of mitochondrial dysfunction. Therefore, we investigated the diagnostic performance of pGSN for MD relative to FGF-21 and GDF-15. Using ELISA assays, we quantified plasma levels of pGSN, FGF-21, and GDF-15 in three age- and gender-matched adult cohorts: 60 genetically diagnosed MD patients, 56 healthy donors, and 41 patients with unrelated neuromuscular pathologies (non-MD). Clinical variables and biomarkers’ plasma levels were compared between groups. Discrimination ability was calculated using the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Optimal cut-offs and the following diagnostic parameters were determined: sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and efficiency. Comprehensive statistical analyses revealed significant discrimination ability for the three biomarkers to classify between MD and healthy individuals, with the best diagnostic performance for the GDF-15/pGSN combination. pGSN and GDF-15 preferentially discriminated between MD and non-MD patients under 50 years, whereas FGF-21 best classified older subjects. Conclusion: pGSN improves the diagnosis accuracy for MD provided by FGF-21 and GDF-15

Interaction between cardiovascular risk factors and body mass index and 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease, cancer death, and overall mortality

The effect of above-normal body mass index (BMI) on health outcomes is controversial because it is difficult to distinguish from the effect due to BMI-associated cardiovascular risk factors. The objective was to analyze the impact on 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease, cancer deaths and overall mortality of the interaction between cardiovascular risk factors and BMI. We conducted a pooled analysis of individual data from 12 Spanish population cohorts with 10-year follow-up. Participants had no previous history of cardiovascular diseases and were 35-79years old at basal examination. Body mass index was measured at baseline being the outcome measures ten-year cardiovascular disease, cancer and overall mortality. Multivariable analyses were adjusted for potential confounders, considering the significant interactions with cardiovascular risk factors. We included 54,446 individuals (46.5% with overweight and 27.8% with obesity). After considering the significant interactions, the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease was significantly increased in women with overweight and obesity [Hazard Ratio=2.34 (95% confidence interval: 1.19-4.61) and 5.65 (1.54-20.73), respectively]. Overweight and obesity significantly increased the risk of cancer death in women [3.98 (1.53-10.37) and 11.61 (1.93-69.72)]. Finally, obese men had an increased risk of cancer death and overall mortality [1.62 (1.03-2.54) and 1.34 (1.01-1.76), respectively]. In conclusion, overweight and obesity significantly increased the risk of cancer death and of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in women; whereas obese men had a significantly higher risk of death for all causes and for cancer. Cardiovascular risk factors may act as effect modifiers in these associations

Association between maltreatment and polydrug use among adolescents.

Different studies have related sexual and physical abuse during childhood and adolescence to the development of substance abuse disorders. Nevertheless, we are not aware of the role that other more common maltreatment types, such as neglect, will play among the most risky pattern of consumption: the polydrug use. A clinical sample of 655 adolescents, divided into two groups: polydrug users and non-polydrug users, were assessed on their pattern of drug consumption, history of childhood maltreatment, current psychopathology and their family history of alcoholism. Polydrug users had a greater prevalence of all types of maltreatment, although the most associated to this group were sexual abuse and emotional neglect. Other relevant variables to adolescent consumption were: the diagnosis of depressive disorder, the presence of anxiety traits and the family history of alcohol dependence. Polydrug users have higher risks of having had problems during infancy and adolescence, such as maltreatment and other psychopathological conditions, with the addition of family history of alcoholism. Accordingly, practitioners should take into account that those variables may influence polydrug abuse because it is the most risky pattern for subsequent dependence of substances, and they should always be considered during treatment.This research was funded by the “Plan Nacional Sobre Drogas” from the Ministry of Health, Social Services and Equality (Spain).Peer reviewe

Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million personyears of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank. RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eG FR values 105 mL.min(-1).1.73 m(-2), compared with those with eG FR between 60 and 105 mL.min(-1).1.73 m(-2). Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR 105 mL.min(-1).1.73 m(-2). Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin Alc, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function

Modelos matemáticos de pronóstico para cáncer de cérvix localmente avanzado. Validación externa de los modelos existentes

Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Medicina, Departamento de Medicina, leída el 28-03-2017Los modelos de pronóstico son procedimientos matemáticos capaces de obtener la probabilidad de riesgo absoluta para un desenlace específico de un individuo, basado en las características biográficas, biológicas, terapéuticas y clínicas. Implican el uso de una metodología singular y compleja. Un paso decisivo para su utilización beneficiosa es realizar una correcta validación. En la actualidad, existen múltiples modelos de pronóstico desarrollados para el cáncer de cérvix localmente avanzado (CCLA), estadio IB2 a IVA de la Federación Internacional de Ginecología y Obstetricia (FIGO). No todos los modelos de pronóstico están validados externamente, condición necesaria para su utilización clínica. 1.3 Objetivos. Validar externamente los modelos de pronóstico para el CCLA desarrollados en pacientes tratadas con quimio-radioterapia concurrente en una cohorte independiente. Identificar y contrastar criterios de buen uso de los procedimientos de investigación pronóstica y validación de modelos predictivos...A prognostic model is a mathematical procedure that estimates the absolute probability of risk for a specific outcome in an individual at a given time by combining different types of information (predictors) on the patient. The prognostic models involve the use of unique and complex methodology. A decisive step to be useful is a correct validation. Currently, multiple prognostic models have been developed for Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer (LACC), International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage between IB2 and IVA. However, few prognostic models described to date have been independently validated by other researchers and/or elsewhere, which is a necessary condition for their clinical use. 2.3 Objectives. To externally validate the prognostic models for LACC and who were treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy in an independient cohort. To identify and contrast good use criteria of procedures of prognostic research and validation of predictive models...Depto. de MedicinaFac. de MedicinaTRUEunpu