What long-run returns can investors expect from the stock market?

This article analyzes how macroeconomic fundamentals and high price-earnings ratios on stocks will affect long-run returns. The first section reviews the stock market's recent performance and describes how investors and analysts have reacted to this performance. The second section shows how macroeconomic trends imply that long-run returns will remain close to their 10 percent historical average. The third section analyzes the long-run relationship between price-earnings ratios and returns. The section shows that high price-earnings ratios are consistent with lower long-run returns, and argues returns may have declined because the stock market is perceived as less risky.Stock market ; Stocks ; Stock - Prices

Aspergillus nodules; another presentation of Chronic Pulmonary Aspergillosis

BACKGROUND: There are a number of different manifestations of pulmonary aspergillosis. This study aims to review the radiology, presentation, and histological features of lung nodules caused by Aspergillus spp. METHODS: Patients were identified from a cohort attending our specialist Chronic Pulmonary Aspergillosis clinic. Patients with cavitating lung lesions, with or without fibrosis and those with aspergillomas or a diagnosis of invasive aspergillosis were excluded. Demographic, laboratory, and clinical data and radiologic findings were recorded. RESULTS: Thirty-three patients with pulmonary nodules and diagnostic features of aspergillosis (histology and/or laboratory findings) were identified. Eighteen (54.5 %) were male, mean age 58 years (range 27–80 years). 19 (57.6 %) were former or current smokers. The median Charleston co-morbidity index was 3 (range 0–7). All complained of a least one of; dyspnoea, cough, haemoptysis, or weight loss. None reported fever. Ten patients (31 %) did not have an elevated Aspergillus IgG, and only 4 patients had elevated Aspergillus precipitins. Twelve patients (36 %) had a single nodule, six patients (18 %) had between 2 and 5 nodules, 2 (6 %) between 6 and 10 nodules and 13 (39 %) had more than 10 nodules. The mean size of the nodules was 21 mm, with a maximum size ranging between 5–50 mm. No nodules had cavitation radiographically. The upper lobes were most commonly involved. Histology was available for 18 patients and showed evidence of granulation tissue, fibrosis, and visualisation of fungal hyphae. CONCLUSION: Pulmonary nodules are a less common manifestation of aspergillosis in immunocompetent patients. Distinguishing these nodules from other lung pathology may be difficult on CT findings alone

Futsal and Continuous Exercise Induce Similar Changes in Specific Skeletal Muscle Signalling Proteins

Exercise elicits skeletal-muscle adaptations which are important for improved health outcomes. We compared the effects of a futsal game (FUT) and moderate-intensity continuous exercise (MOD), on the skeletal-muscle protein signalling responses in young, healthy individuals. 16 men undertook an incremental exercise test and a resting muscle biopsy performed >48\u2009h apart. They were then randomly allocated to either FUT (n=12) consisting of 2\u2009x\u200920\u2009min halves, or MOD (n=8) consisting of a work-matched running bout performed at an intensity corresponding to the individual ventilatory threshold 1. Work matching was achieved by means of triaxial accelerometers. Immediately after FUT and MOD, participants underwent a second biopsy to assess exercise-induced changes in protein signalling. Total and phosphorylated protein abundance was assessed via western blotting. Both FUT and MOD altered signalling responses in skeletal muscle. FUT increased total ATF2 protein abundance (p=0.048) and phosphorylation (p=0.029), while no changes occurred with MOD. Both exercise regimes increased ACC phosphorylation (p=0.01) and returned a trend for increased p38MAPK phosphorylation. Futsal may be employed as an alternative to continuous exercise to elicit muscle adaptations which may be associated with improved health outcomes. As only FUT increased ATF2 activation, this protein might be a target of future investigation on exercise-induced signalling

Heart rate variability predicts 30-day all-cause mortality in intensive care units

Background: Autonomic nervous function, as quantified by heart rate variability (HRV), has shown promise in predicting clinically important outcomes in the critical care setting; however, there is debate concerning its utility. HRV analysis was assessed as a practical tool for outcome prediction in two South African hospitals and compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scoring.Method: In a dual centre, prospective, observational cohort study of patients admitted to the intensive care units (ICU) of two hospitals in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa frequency domain HRV parameters were explored as predictors of: all-cause mortality at 30 days after admission; ICU stay duration; the need for invasive ventilation; the need for inotrope/vasopressor therapy; and the need for renal replacement therapy. The predictive ability of HRV parameters against the APACHE II score for the study outcomes was also compared.Results: A total of 55 patients were included in the study. Very low frequency power (VLF) was shown to predict 30-day mortality in ICU (odds ratio 0.6; 95% confidence interval 0.396–0.911). When compared with APACHE II, VLF remained a significant predictor of outcome, suggesting that it adds a unique component of prediction. No HRV parameters were predictive for the other secondary outcomes.Conclusion: This study found that VLF independently predicted all-cause mortality at 30 days after ICU admission. VLF provided additional predictive ability above that of the APACHE II score. As suggested by this exploratory analysis larger multi-centre studies seem warranted.Keywords: APACHE II, autonomic nervous system, critical care, heart rate variability, mortalit

Fifteen days of 3200m simulated hypoxia marginally regulates markers for protein synthesis and degradation in human skeletal muscle

Chronic hypoxia leads to muscle atrophy. The molecular mechanisms responsible for this phenomenon are not well defined in vivo. We sought to determine how chronic hypoxia regulates molecular markers of protein synthesis and degradation in human skeletal muscle and whether these regulations were related to the regulation of the hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) pathway. Eight young male subjects lived in a normobaric hypoxic hotel (FiO2 14.1%, 3,200 m) for 15 days in well-controlled conditions for nutrition and physical activity. Skeletal muscle biopsies were obtained in the musculus vastus lateralis before (PRE) and immediately after (POST) hypoxic exposure. Intramuscular hypoxia-inducible factor-1 alpha (HIF-1α) protein expression decreased (-49%, P=0.03), whereas hypoxia-inducible factor-2 alpha (HIF-2α) remained unaffected from PRE to POST hypoxic exposure. Also, downstream HIF-1α target genes VEGF-A (-66%, P=0.006) and BNIP3 (-24%, P=0.002) were downregulated, and a tendency was measured for neural precursor cell expressed, developmentally Nedd4 (-47%, P=0.07), suggesting lowered HIF-1α transcriptional activity after 15 days of exposure to environmental hypoxia. No difference was found on microtubule-associated protein 1 light chain 3 type II/I (LC3b-II/I) ratio, and P62 protein expression tended to increase (+45%, P=0.07) compared to PRE exposure levels, suggesting that autophagy was not modulated after chronic hypoxia. The mammalian target of rapamycin complex 1 pathway was not altered as Akt, mammalian target of rapamycin, S6 kinase 1, and 4E-binding protein 1 phosphorylation did not change between PRE and POST. Finally, myofiber cross-sectional area was unchanged between PRE and POST. In summary, our data indicate that moderate chronic hypoxia differentially regulates HIF-1α and HIF-2α, marginally affects markers of protein degradation, and does not modify markers of protein synthesis or myofiber cross-sectional area in human skeletal muscle

Sports review: A content analysis of the International Review for the Sociology of Sport, the Journal of Sport and Social Issues and the Sociology of Sport Journal across 25 years

The International Review for the Sociology of Sport, the Journal of Sport and Social Issues and Sociology of Sport Journal have individually and collectively been subject to a systematic content analysis. By focusing on substantive research papers published in these three journals over a 25-year time period it is possible to identify the topics that have featured within the sociology of sport. The purpose of the study was to identify the dominant themes, sports, countries, methodological frameworks and theoretical perspectives that have appeared in the research papers published in these three journals. Using the terms, identified by the author(s), that appear in the paper’s title, abstract and/or listed as a key word, subject term or geographical term, a baseline is established to reflect on the development of the sub-discipline as represented by the content of these three journals. It is suggested that the findings illustrate what many of the more experienced practitioners in the field may have felt subjectively. On the basis of this systematic, empirical study it is now possible to identify those areas have received extensive coverage and those which are under-researched within the sociology of sport. The findings are used to inform a discussion of the role of academic journals and the recent contributions made by Michael Silk, David Andrews, Michael Atkinson and Dominic Malcolm on the past, present and future of the ‘sociology of sport’

Constraints on the Progenitor of SN 2016gkg From Its Shock-Cooling Light Curve

SN 2016gkg is a nearby Type IIb supernova discovered shortly after explosion. Like several other Type IIb events with early-time data, SN 2016gkg displays a double-peaked light curve, with the first peak associated with the cooling of a low-mass extended progenitor envelope. We present unprecedented intranight-cadence multi-band photometric coverage of the first light-curve peak of SN 2016gkg obtained from the Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope network, the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System, the Swift satellite and various amateur-operated telescopes. Fitting these data to analytical shock-cooling models gives a progenitor radius of ~25-140 solar radii with ~2-30 x 10^-2 solar masses of material in the extended envelope (depending on the model and the assumed host-galaxy extinction). Our radius estimates are broadly consistent with values derived independently (in other works) from HST imaging of the progenitor star. However, the shock-cooling model radii are on the lower end of the values indicated by pre-explosion imaging. Hydrodynamical simulations could refine the progenitor parameters deduced from the shock-cooling emission and test the analytical models.Comment: Accepted by ApJ