208 research outputs found

    Use of metal-filling in spent fuel canisters as an alternative waste form

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    http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/2294914

    Labrador: Exploring the Limits of Masked Language Modeling for Laboratory Data

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    In this work we introduce Labrador, a pre-trained Transformer model for laboratory data. Labrador and BERT were pre-trained on a corpus of 100 million lab test results from electronic health records (EHRs) and evaluated on various downstream outcome prediction tasks. Both models demonstrate mastery of the pre-training task but neither consistently outperform XGBoost on downstream supervised tasks. Our ablation studies reveal that transfer learning shows limited effectiveness for BERT and achieves marginal success with Labrador. We explore the reasons for the failure of transfer learning and suggest that the data generating process underlying each patient cannot be characterized sufficiently using labs alone, among other factors. We encourage future work to focus on joint modeling of multiple EHR data categories and to include tree-based baselines in their evaluations.Comment: 27 pages, 8 figure

    Leo Howard Whinery

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    Conformal Prediction with Large Language Models for Multi-Choice Question Answering

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    As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to provide uncertainty quantification in language models for the specific task of multiple-choice question-answering. We find that the uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are tightly correlated with prediction accuracy. This observation can be useful for downstream applications such as selective classification and filtering out low-quality predictions. We also investigate the exchangeability assumption required by conformal prediction to out-of-subject questions, which may be a more realistic scenario for many practical applications. Our work contributes towards more trustworthy and reliable usage of large language models in safety-critical situations, where robust guarantees of error rate are required.Comment: 10 page

    Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19

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    Governments around the world must rapidly mobilize and make difficult policy decisions to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Because deaths have been concentrated at older ages, we highlight the important role of demography, particularly, how the age structure of a population may help explain differences in fatality rates across countries and how transmission unfolds. We examine the role of age structure in deaths thus far in Italy and South Korea and illustrate how the pandemic could unfold in populations with similar population sizes but different age structures, showing a dramatically higher burden of mortality in countries with older versus younger populations. This powerful interaction of demography and current age-specific mortality for COVID-19 suggests that social distancing and other policies to slow transmission should consider the age composition of local and national contexts as well as intergenerational interactions. We also call for countries to provide case and fatality data disaggregated by age and sex to improve real-time targeted forecasting of hospitalization and critical care needs

    Use of Dried Capillary Blood Sampling for Islet Autoantibody Screening in Relatives:A Feasibility Study

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    Background: Islet autoantibody testing provides the basis for assessment of risk of progression to type 1 diabetes. We set out to determine the feasibility and acceptability of dried capillary blood spot–based screening to identify islet autoantibody–positive relatives potentially eligible for inclusion in prevention trials. Materials and Methods: Dried blood spot (DBS) and venous samples were collected from 229 relatives participating in the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study. Both samples were tested for glutamic acid decarboxylase, islet antigen 2, and zinc transporter 8 autoantibodies, and venous samples were additionally tested for insulin autoantibodies and islet cell antibodies. We defined multiple autoantibody positive as two or more autoantibodies in venous serum and DBS screen positive if one or more autoantibodies were detected. Participant questionnaires compared the sample collection methods. Results: Of 44 relatives who were multiple autoantibody positive in venous samples, 42 (95.5%) were DBS screen positive, and DBS accurately detected 145 of 147 autoantibody-negative relatives (98.6%). Capillary blood sampling was perceived as more painful than venous blood draw, but 60% of participants would prefer initial screening using home fingerstick with clinic visits only required if autoantibodies were found. Conclusions: Capillary blood sampling could facilitate screening for type 1 diabetes prevention studies.</p

    Fall in C-peptide during first 2 years from diagnosis: Evidence of at least two distinct phases from composite type 1 diabetes trialnet data.

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    Interpretation of clinical trials to alter the decline in β-cell function after diagnosis of type 1 diabetes depends on a robust understanding of the natural history of disease. Combining data from the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet studies, we describe the natural history of β-cell function from shortly after diagnosis through 2 years post study randomization, assess the degree of variability between patients, and investigate factors that may be related to C-peptide preservation or loss. We found that 93% of individuals have detectable C-peptide 2 years from diagnosis. In 11% of subjects, there was no significant fall from baseline by 2 years. There was a biphasic decline in C-peptide; the C-peptide slope was −0.0245 pmol/mL/month (95% CI −0.0271 to −0.0215) through the first 12 months and −0.0079 (−0.0113 to −0.0050) from 12 to 24 months (P \u3c 0.001). This pattern of fall in C-peptide over time has implications for understanding trial results in which effects of therapy are most pronounced early and raises the possibility that there are time-dependent differences in pathophysiology. The robust data on the C-peptide obtained under clinical trial conditions should be used in planning and interpretation of clinical trials
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