A study of the interplay between intuition and rationality in valuation decision making

There is widespread acceptance that both intuition and rationality can play significant roles in valuation decision-making. However, a study that specifically examines how intuitive and rational approaches interact is still missing. This study addresses this gap by applying cognitive theories of information processing and using a very detailed analysis of verbal protocols to propose a model of cognitive structure that identifies and describes the reasoning of property valuers during a commercial valuation task. The empirical data suggest that valuers start with an established goal and then engage in analytical and intuitive thinking until a valuation outcome has been reached. It is argued that a major reason for effective valuation decision-making, in a real-world context, is that the cognitive processes required by experts’ analytical and intuitive thinking demonstrate greater degree of cohesiveness and interrelatedness. The ability of valuers to integrate more intuition into their largely rational decision-making process suggests the need for valuation professional organisations to formally acknowledge intuition as an important component of valuation professional competence and skill requirement and to customise professional valuers’ training and development programmes to facilitate the development of appropriate intuitive approaches for effective valuation decision-making

Diversité des paléo-paysages dans les Alpes françaises depuis la dernière déglaciation

Ce travail rappelle dans un premier volet les contraintes méthodologiques incontournables pour la reconstitution des paléo-paysages à partir de l’analyse pollinique et dans un second volet une synthèse des acquis dans les Alpes françaises. En milieu de montagne, l’uniformisation potentielle de l’image pollinique par le brassage des masses d’air impose la localisation des études dans des aires restreintes écologiquement homogènes et le choix de sites enregistrant au mieux l’image de la végétation locale. C’est ainsi qu’a émergé la notion de massif clé, constitué de sites de faible dimension dans les différents étages de végétation et à différentes expositions. La synthèse des acquis s’effectue par intégration des résultats de proche en proche. Une revue des données des cinquante dernières années est passée au crible de cette méthodologie qui met en évidence une uniformisation artificielle de l’image des paléo-paysages et un biais dans les datations. Pendant l’Holocène, l’étage subalpin était plus diversifié et majoritairement boisé avec des espèces dont la limite supérieure était plus élevée qu’actuellement. La mise en évidence de diachronismes des évolutions des paysages liés au relief contrasté constitue l’apport fondamental de cette méthodologie.In this paper, some mandatory methodological precautions which have to be taken when reconstituting palaeo-landscapes are discussed, and the results obtain on these lines will be presented. The possibility that the pollen collected in mountain habitats may have been homogenized due to the mixing effects of the wind led the present author to develop a method of studying local differences in plant cover. This method consists in performing highly localized studies on small ecologically homogeneous areas and selecting sites closely reflecting local patterns of vegetation. This approach led to the concept of the “key clump”, consisting of small sites located in several vegetation zones with various exposures. All the data obtained during the last fifty years were systematically screened using this method, and the results showed that an falsely uniform picture of palaeo-landscapes has been drawn. During the Holocene period, the sub-alpine vegetation was highly diversified and the woodland species grew up to higher altitudes than they do nowadays. The main finding obtained using the present method is that landscape changes which occurred showed a diachronic pattern due to the differences in the relief of the land

Over 10 million seawater temperature records for the United Kingdom Continental Shelf between 1880 and 2014 from 17 Cefas (United Kingdom government) marine data systems

The datasets described here bring together quality-controlled seawater temperature measurements from over 130 years of departmental government-funded marine science investigations in the UK (United Kingdom). Since before the foundation of a Marine Biological Association fisheries laboratory in 1902 and through subsequent evolutions as the Directorate of Fisheries Research and the current Centre for Environment Fisheries & Aquaculture Science, UK government marine scientists and observers have been collecting seawater temperature data as part of oceanographic, chemical, biological, radiological, and other policy-driven research and observation programmes in UK waters. These datasets start with a few tens of records per year, rise to hundreds from the early 1900s, thousands by 1959, and hundreds of thousands by the 1980s, peaking with  >  1 million for some years from 2000 onwards. The data source systems vary from time series at coastal monitoring stations or offshore platforms (buoys), through repeated research cruises or opportunistic sampling from ferry routes, to temperature extracts from CTD (conductivity, temperature, depth) profiles, oceanographic, fishery and plankton tows, and data collected from recreational scuba divers or electronic devices attached to marine animals. The datasets described have not been included in previous seawater temperature collation exercises (e.g. International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set, Met Office Hadley Centre sea surface temperature data set, the centennial in situ observation-based estimates of sea surface temperatures), although some summary data reside in the British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC) archive, the Marine Environment Monitoring and Assessment National (MERMAN) database and the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) data centre. We envisage the data primarily providing a biologically and ecosystem-relevant context for regional assessments of changing hydrological conditions around the British Isles, although cross-matching with satellite-derived data for surface temperatures at specific times and in specific areas is another area in which the data could be of value (see e.g. Smit et al., 2013). Maps are provided indicating geographical coverage, which is generally within and around the UK Continental Shelf area, but occasionally extends north from Labrador and Greenland to east of Svalbard and southward to the Bay of Biscay. Example potential uses of the data are described using plots of data in four selected groups of four ICES rectangles covering areas of particular fisheries interest. The full dataset enables extensive data synthesis, for example in the southern North Sea where issues of spatial and numerical bias from a data source are explored. The full dataset also facilitates the construction of long-term temperature time series and an examination of changes in the phenology (seasonal timing) of ecosystem processes. This is done for a wide geographic area with an exploration of the limitations of data coverage over long periods. Throughout, we highlight and explore potential issues around the simple combination of data from the diverse and disparate sources collated here. The datasets are available on the Cefas Data Hub (https://www.cefas.co.uk/cefas-data-hub/). The referenced data sources are listed in Sect. 5

Variabilité des enregistrements polliniques en montagne et reconstitutions paléoécologiques

L’étude pollinique de 5 sites autour d’Annecy (Lac d’Annecy 450 m, Poisy 490 m, Les Rondets 940 m, Bouttecul 1200 m, Plateau des Glières 1500 m) montre les variations des enregistrements polliniques dans une zone géographique restreinte. Deux types de comparaisons ont été faites: l’une sur deux sites proches (Annecy/Poisy) aux caractéristiques des bassins versants différentes dans un même étage de végétation et l’autre sur quatre sites (Poisy, Rondets, Bouttecul, Glières) aux caractéristiques des bassins versants semblables dans différents étages de végétation.La première comparaison montre le meilleur enregistrement des taxons à forte dispersion pollinique (Pinus, Quercus, Abies, Juglans) dans un site de grande taille avec apports fluviatiles. La représentation forte de taxons tels que Fraxinus et Ulmus, voire Alnus glutinosa/incana après 6000 BP dans un site de plus petite taille, sans apports fluviatiles, indique la localisation de ces taxons en bordure de marais. En revanche la bonne représentation de Tilia dans les deux sites malgré sa faible diffusion pollinique signifie une extension remarquable des tilleuls à l’échelle régionale. Le second pic significatif d’Abies dans le site de grande taille non enregistré dans le site de petite taille marque la différence d’origine des apports polliniques. La comparaison de petits sites étagés montre le diachronisme de la colonisation végétale en fonction de l’altitude. Au début de l’Holocène, les bouleaux et les pins colonisent les niveaux inférieurs à 1500 m. A partir de 9000 BP, Corylus, Quercus, Ulmus, Tilia dominent le paysage jusqu’à cette altitude. La représentation de Corylus décroît avec l’altitude et les pins subsistent au dessus de 1500 m. A partir de 8000 BP, la progression des sapins est enregistrée à tous les étages. Cette progression est stoppée dès 5900 BP dans l’étage collinéen où se développent des formations végétales proches des formations actuelles. Plus haut le sapin se maintient jusqu’à la forte progression de l’épicéa vers 4000BP. Fraxinus et Alnus sont mieux représentés dans l’étage collinéen, Tilia dans l’étage montagnard jusqu’à 1200 m. Au diachronisme lié à l’effet de l’altitude sur l’installation des végétaux se surimpose l’amplitude variable de l’action anthropique dès environ 6000 BP.Pollen study of five sedimentary sequences cored in the vicinity of Annecy (Lac d’Annecy 450 m, Poisy 490 m, Les Rondets 940 m, Bouttecul 1200 m, Plateau des Glières 1500 m) shows the variability of pollen records in a small geographical area. Two comparisons display the multiple parameters affecting pollen records. The comparison Lac d’Annecy/Poisy concerns a great site with tributary and a small endoreic site at the same altitudinal belt, whereas the comparison Poisy, Rondets, Bouttecul, Glières concerns similar endoreic sites at different altitudinal belts.The first comparison illustrates the best record of easily wind dispersed taxa (Pinus, Quercus, Abies, Juglans) in the great site. The best record of Fraxinus, Ulmus, even Alnus glutinosa/incana after 6000 BP in the small site reflects the location of those taxa around the site. In the two sites, high Tilia values, a poorly wind dispersed taxon, indicate the large regional distribution of the trees. The difference in the pollen source area recruitment linked to basin characteristics is confirmed by Abies curve which shows in the great site a second peak not recorded at the small one. This constitutes a first impediment to the climatic translation of pollen record in montanous areas characterized by high local variations.The second comparison of small basin at different elevation illustrates the vegetation cover expansion out of phase at higher altitudes. At the first step of the Holocene, Betula and Pinus colonized belt below 1500 m. Around and after 9000 BP Corylus, Quercus, Ulmus, Tilia extended up to 1500 m. An altitudinal gradient is clearly evidenced by Corylus values decreasing with the altitude. Pinus is then present above 1500 m. On and after 8000 BP Abies is recorded at each site. Abies spread has been stopped at 5900 BP at the lowest site where a vegetation cover similar to the present one has developed. At higher altitude Abies expanded until the large development of Picea around 4000 BP. Fraxinus and Alnus percentages are higher at hill belt and Tilia at montane belt up to 1200 m. From about 6000 BP the effects of the different human uses at different altitudes have been added to those altitudinal gradients

Assessing the potential of autonomous submarine gliders for ecosystem monitoring across multiple trophic levels (plankton to cetaceans) and pollutants in shallow shelf seas

A combination of scientific, economic, technological and policy drivers is behind a recent upsurge in the use of marine autonomous systems (and accompanying miniaturized sensors) for environmental mapping and monitoring. Increased spatial–temporal resolution and coverage of data, at reduced cost, is particularly vital for effective spatial management of highly dynamic and heterogeneous shelf environments. This proof-of-concept study involves integration of a novel combination of sensors onto buoyancy-driven submarine gliders, in order to assess their suitability for ecosystem monitoring in shelf waters at a variety of trophic levels. Two shallow-water Slocum gliders were equipped with CTD and fluorometer to measure physical properties and chlorophyll, respectively. One glider was also equipped with a single-frequency echosounder to collect information on zooplankton and fish distribution. The other glider carried a Passive Acoustic Monitoring system to detect and record cetacean vocalizations, and a passive sampler to detect chemical contaminants in the water column. The two gliders were deployed together off southwest UK in autumn 2013, and targeted a known tidal-mixing front west of the Isles of Scilly. The gliders’ mission took about 40 days, with each glider travelling distances of >1000 km and undertaking >2500 dives to depths of up to 100 m. Controlling glider flight and alignment of the two glider trajectories proved to be particularly challenging due to strong tidal flows. However, the gliders continued to collect data in poor weather when an accompanying research vessel was unable to operate. In addition, all glider sensors generated useful data, with particularly interesting initial results relating to subsurface chlorophyll maxima and numerous fish/cetacean detections within the water column. The broader implications of this study for marine ecosystem monitoring with submarine gliders are discussed

The relationship between cognitive ability and chess skill: a comprehensive meta-analysis

Why are some people more skilled in complex domains than other people? Here, we conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the relationship between cognitive ability and skill in chess. Chess skill correlated positively and significantly with fluid reasoning (Gf) (r−=0.24), comprehension-knowledge (Gc) (r−=0.22), short-term memory (Gsm) (r−=0.25), and processing speed (Gs) (r−=0.24); the meta-analytic average of the correlations was (r−=0.24). Moreover, the correlation between Gf and chess skill was moderated by age (r−=0.32 for youth samples vs. r−=0.11 for adult samples), and skill level (r−=0.32 for unranked samples vs. r−=0.14 for ranked samples). Interestingly, chess skill correlated more strongly with numerical ability (r−=0.35) than with verbal ability (r−=0.19) or visuospatial ability (r−=0.13). The results suggest that cognitive ability contributes meaningfully to individual differences in chess skill, particularly in young chess players and/or at lower levels of skill

Accounting for expert performance: the devil is in the details

The deliberate practice view has generated a great deal of scientific and popular interest in expert performance. At the same time, empirical evidence now indicates that deliberate practice, while certainly important, is not as important as Ericsson and colleagues have argued it is. In particular, we (Hambrick, Oswald, Altmann, Meinz, Gobet, & Campitelli, 2014) found that individual differences in accumulated amount of deliberate practice accounted for about one-third of the reliable variance in performance in chess and music, leaving the majority of the reliable variance unexplained and potentially explainable by other factors. Ericsson's (2014) defense of the deliberate practice view, though vigorous, is undercut by contradictions, oversights, and errors in his arguments and criticisms, several of which we describe here. We reiterate that the task now is to develop and rigorously test falsifiable theories of expert performance that take into account as many potentially relevant constructs as possible

Effects of different poultry manure fertilization levels and cutting times on Moringa oleifera production

Abstract The effects of different poultry manure fertilization levels and cutting times on the growth of Moringa oleifera were evaluated. A factorial design comparing six levels of poultry manure (0, 50, 100, 150, 200 and 250 kg N ha-1) and three cutting times (4, 6 and 8 months) with four replicates was used. One month after sowing, fertilization was performed. At each cutting time, 20 plants were collected per treatment for height and diameter measurements. Stem, leaf and whole plant biomass values were assessed for each plot based on the rate of fertilization with poultry manure and the cutting time. The results showed that irrespective of the cutting time, the largest plant height and diameter were obtained with 200 kg N ha-1 (160.37 ± 6.33 cm and 2.37 ± 0.33 cm, respectively). The biomass of stems, leaves and whole plants increased with the level of N fertilization. The highest biomass was obtained with cutting at 6 months and a fertilization rate of 200 kg N ha-1 (1.51 ± 0.01, 0.90 ± 0.01 and 2.41 ± 0.05 t MS/ha, respectively, for leaves, stems and whole plants). In conclusion, the application of poultry manure at a rate of 200 kg N ha-1 at the vegetative growth stage is optimal for Moringa oleífera production.Resumen El efecto de diferentes niveles de fertilización con guano de ave y tiempos de corte fueron evaluados sobre el crecimiento de Moringa oleífera. En un diseño factorial con seis niveles con fertilización de guano de ave (0, 50, 100, 150, 200 y 250 kg N ha-1) y tres tiempos de corte (4, 6 y 8 meses) con cuatro replicas fue utilizado. Después de un mes de siembra, se llevó a cabo la fertilización. En cada tiempo de corte, 20 plantas fueron colectadas por tratamiento para las mediciones de altura y diámetro. La biomasa del tallo, hoja y planta entera de Moringa oleífera fue analizada por cada parcela dependiendo de su nivel de fertilización con guano de ave y su respectivo tiempo de corte. Los resultados mostraron que independiente del tiempo de corte, la mayor altura y diámetro de la planta fue obtenida con 200 kg N ha-1. La biomasa del tallo, hoja y planta entera aumentó conforme el nivel de fertilización aumentó. La mejor biomasa se obtuvo en el corte a los 6 meses (1.51, 0.90 y 2.41 t MS ha-1 respectivamente para hojas, tallo y planta entera. En conclusión, la utilización de guano de ave a razón de 200 kg N ha-1 es la más adecuada para el crecimiento de Moringa oleífera en estado vegetativo