Flood estimation for ungauged catchments in the Philippines

Abstract. Flood magnitude and frequency estimation are essential for the design of structural and nature-based flood risk management interventions and water resources planning. However, the global geography of hydrological observations is uneven; in many regions, such as the Philippines, data are spatially and/or temporary sparse, limiting the choice of statistical methods for flood estimation. We evaluate the potential of pooling short historical data series for ungauged catchment flood estimation. Daily mean river discharge data were collected from 842 sites, with data spanning from 1908 to 2018. Of these, 513 candidate sites met criteria to estimate a reliable annual maximum flood. Using the index flood approach, a range of controls were assessed at national and regional scales using land cover and rainfall datasets, and GIS-derived catchment characteristics. Multivariate analysis for predictive equations for 2 to 100 year recurrence interval floods based on catchment area only have R2 ≤ 0.59. Additionally, adding a rainfall variable, the median annual maximum 1-day rainfall, increases R2 to between 0.56 for Q100 and 0.66 for Q2. Very few other variables were significant when added to multiple regression equations. Although the Philippines exhibits regional climate variability, there is limited spatial structure in predictive equation residuals and region-specific predictive equations do not perform significantly better than national equations. Relatively low R2 values are typical of studies from tropical regions. The predictive equations are suitable for use as design equations for the Philippines but uncertainties must be assessed. Our approach demonstrates how combining individually short historical records, after careful screening and exclusion of erroneous data, generates large data sets that can produce consistent results. Extension of continuous flood records is required to reduce uncertainties but national-scale consistency suggests that extrapolation from a small number of carefully selected catchments could provide nationally reliable predictive equations with reduced uncertainties. </jats:p

River Styles and stream power analysis reveal the diversity of fluvial morphology in a Philippine tropical catchment

Characterisation of hydromorphological attributes is crucial for effective river management. Such information is often overlooked in tropical regions such as the Philippines where river management strategies mainly focus on issues around water quality and quantity. We address this knowledge gap using the River Styles Framework as a template to identify the diversity of river morphodynamics. We identify eight distinct River Styles (river types) in the Bislak catchment (586 km2) in the Philippines, showing considerable geomorphic diversity within a relatively small catchment area. Three River Styles in a Confined valley setting occupy 57% of the catchment area, another three in a partly confined valley setting occupy 37%, and two in the remaining 6% are found in a laterally unconfined valley setting. Five characteristic downstream patterns of River Styles were identified across the catchment. We observe that variation in channel slope for a given catchment area (i.e., total stream power) is insufficient to differentiate between river types. Hence, topographic analyses should be complemented with broader framed, catchment-specific approaches to river characterisation. The outputs and understandings from the geomorphic analysis of rivers undertaken in this study can support river management applications by explicitly incorporating understandings of river diversity and dynamics. This has the potential to reshape how river management is undertaken, to shift from reactive, engineering-based approaches that dominate in the Philippines, to more sustainable, ecosystem-based approaches to management

Measurement of the cosmic ray spectrum above 4×10184{\times}10^{18} eV using inclined events detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory

A measurement of the cosmic-ray spectrum for energies exceeding $4{\times}10^{18}$ eV is presented, which is based on the analysis of showers with zenith angles greater than $60^{\circ}$ detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2013. The measured spectrum confirms a flux suppression at the highest energies. Above $5.3{\times}10^{18}$ eV, the "ankle", the flux can be described by a power law $E^{-\gamma}$ with index $\gamma=2.70 \pm 0.02 \,\text{(stat)} \pm 0.1\,\text{(sys)}$ followed by a smooth suppression region. For the energy ($E_\text{s}$) at which the spectral flux has fallen to one-half of its extrapolated value in the absence of suppression, we find $E_\text{s}=(5.12\pm0.25\,\text{(stat)}^{+1.0}_{-1.2}\,\text{(sys)}){\times}10^{19}$ eV.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Energy Estimation of Cosmic Rays with the Engineering Radio Array of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) is part of the Pierre Auger Observatory and is used to detect the radio emission of cosmic-ray air showers. These observations are compared to the data of the surface detector stations of the Observatory, which provide well-calibrated information on the cosmic-ray energies and arrival directions. The response of the radio stations in the 30 to 80 MHz regime has been thoroughly calibrated to enable the reconstruction of the incoming electric field. For the latter, the energy deposit per area is determined from the radio pulses at each observer position and is interpolated using a two-dimensional function that takes into account signal asymmetries due to interference between the geomagnetic and charge-excess emission components. The spatial integral over the signal distribution gives a direct measurement of the energy transferred from the primary cosmic ray into radio emission in the AERA frequency range. We measure 15.8 MeV of radiation energy for a 1 EeV air shower arriving perpendicularly to the geomagnetic field. This radiation energy -- corrected for geometrical effects -- is used as a cosmic-ray energy estimator. Performing an absolute energy calibration against the surface-detector information, we observe that this radio-energy estimator scales quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy as expected for coherent emission. We find an energy resolution of the radio reconstruction of 22% for the data set and 17% for a high-quality subset containing only events with at least five radio stations with signal.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Measurement of the Radiation Energy in the Radio Signal of Extensive Air Showers as a Universal Estimator of Cosmic-Ray Energy

We measure the energy emitted by extensive air showers in the form of radio emission in the frequency range from 30 to 80 MHz. Exploiting the accurate energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory, we obtain a radiation energy of 15.8 \pm 0.7 (stat) \pm 6.7 (sys) MeV for cosmic rays with an energy of 1 EeV arriving perpendicularly to a geomagnetic field of 0.24 G, scaling quadratically with the cosmic-ray energy. A comparison with predictions from state-of-the-art first-principle calculations shows agreement with our measurement. The radiation energy provides direct access to the calorimetric energy in the electromagnetic cascade of extensive air showers. Comparison with our result thus allows the direct calibration of any cosmic-ray radio detector against the well-established energy scale of the Pierre Auger Observatory.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Supplemental material in the ancillary file

A search for ultra-high-energy photons at the Pierre Auger Observatory exploiting air-shower universality

The Pierre Auger Observatory is the most sensitive detector to primary photons with energies above ∼0.2 EeV. It measures extensive air showers using a hybrid technique that combines a fluorescence detector (FD) with a ground array of particle detectors (SD). The signatures of a photon-induced air shower are a larger atmospheric depth at the shower maximum (X$_{max}$) and a steeper lateral distribution function, along with a lower number of muons with respect to the bulk of hadron-induced background. Using observables measured by the FD and SD, three photon searches in different energy bands are performed. In particular, between threshold energies of 1-10 EeV, a new analysis technique has been developed by combining the FD-based measurement of X$_{max}$ with the SD signal through a parameter related to its muon content, derived from the universality of the air showers. This technique has led to a better photon/hadron separation and, consequently, to a higher search sensitivity, resulting in a tighter upper limit than before. The outcome of this new analysis is presented here, along with previous results in the energy ranges below 1 EeV and above 10 EeV. From the data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory in about 15 years of operation, the most stringent constraints on the fraction of photons in the cosmic flux are set over almost three decades in energy

Study on multi-ELVES in the Pierre Auger Observatory

Since 2013, the four sites of the Fluorescence Detector (FD) of the Pierre Auger Observatory record ELVES with a dedicated trigger. These UV light emissions are correlated to distant lightning strikes. The length of recorded traces has been increased from 100 μs (2013), to 300 μs (2014-16), to 900 μs (2017-present), to progressively extend the observation of the light emission towards the vertical of the causative lightning and beyond. A large fraction of the observed events shows double ELVES within the time window, and, in some cases, even more complex structures are observed. The nature of the multi-ELVES is not completely understood but may be related to the different types of lightning in which they are originated. For example, it is known that Narrow Bipolar Events can produce double ELVES, and Energetic In-cloud Pulses, occurring between the main negative and upper positive charge layer of clouds, can induce double and even quadruple ELVES in the ionosphere. This report shows the seasonal and daily dependence of the time gap, amplitude ratio, and correlation between the pulse widths of the peaks in a sample of 1000+ multi-ELVES events recorded during the period 2014-20. The events have been compared with data from other satellite and ground-based sensing devices to study the correlation of their properties with lightning observables such as altitude and polarity