Persistence at the onset of spatiotemporal intermittency in coupled map lattices

We study persistence in coupled circle map lattices at the onset of spatiotemporal intermittency, an onset which marks a continuous transition, in the universality class of directed percolation, to a unique absorbing state. We obtain a local persistence exponent of theta_l = 1.49 +- 0.02 at this transition, a value which closely matches values for theta_l obtained in stochastic models of directed percolation. This result constitutes suggestive evidence for the universality of persistence exponents at the directed percolation transition. Given that many experimental systems are modelled accurately by coupled map lattices, experimental measurements of this persistence exponent may be feasible.Comment: 7 pages, Latex, 6 Postscript figures, Europhysics Letters (to appear

Critical exponents of directed percolation measured in spatiotemporal intermittency

A new experimental system showing a transition to spatiotemporal intermittency is presented. It consists of a ring of hundred oscillating ferrofluidic spikes. Four of five of the measured critical exponents of the system agree with those obtained from a theoretical model of directed percolation.Comment: 7 pages, 12 figures, submitted to PR

Containment and equivalence of weighted automata: Probabilistic and max-plus cases

This paper surveys some results regarding decision problems for probabilistic and max-plus automata, such as containment and equivalence. Probabilistic and max-plus automata are part of the general family of weighted automata, whose semantics are maps from words to real values. Given two weighted automata, the equivalence problem asks whether their semantics are the same, and the containment problem whether one is point-wise smaller than the other one. These problems have been studied intensively and this paper will review some techniques used to show (un)decidability and state a list of open questions that still remain

Fluctuations for the Ginzburg-Landau ∇ϕ\nabla \phi Interface Model on a Bounded Domain

We study the massless field on $D_n = D \cap \tfrac{1}{n} \Z^2$, where $D \subseteq \R^2$ is a bounded domain with smooth boundary, with Hamiltonian \CH(h) = \sum_{x \sim y} \CV(h(x) - h(y)). The interaction \CV is assumed to be symmetric and uniformly convex. This is a general model for a $(2+1)$-dimensional effective interface where $h$ represents the height. We take our boundary conditions to be a continuous perturbation of a macroscopic tilt: $h(x) = n x \cdot u + f(x)$ for $x \in \partial D_n$, $u \in \R^2$, and $f \colon \R^2 \to \R$ continuous. We prove that the fluctuations of linear functionals of $h(x)$ about the tilt converge in the limit to a Gaussian free field on $D$, the standard Gaussian with respect to the weighted Dirichlet inner product $(f,g)_\nabla^\beta = \int_D \sum_i \beta_i \partial_i f_i \partial_i g_i$ for some explicit $\beta = \beta(u)$. In a subsequent article, we will employ the tools developed here to resolve a conjecture of Sheffield that the zero contour lines of $h$ are asymptotically described by $SLE(4)$, a conformally invariant random curve.Comment: 58 page

Evidence for directed percolation universality at the onset of spatiotemporal intermittency in coupled circle maps

We consider a lattice of coupled circle maps, a model arising naturally in descriptions of solid state phenomena such as Josephson junction arrays. We find that the onset of spatiotemporal intermittency (STI) in this system is analogous to directed percolation (DP), with the transition being to an unique absorbing state for low nonlinearities, and to weakly chaotic absorbing states for high nonlinearities. We find that the complete set of static exponents and spreading exponents at all critical points match those of DP very convincingly. Further, hyperscaling relations are fulfilled, leading to independent controls and consistency checks of the values of all the critical exponents. These results lend strong support to the conjecture that the onset of STI in deterministic models belongs to the DP universality class.Comment: Submitted to Physical Review

Influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates in Europe in a season with three influenza type/subtypes circulating: the I-MOVE multicentre case–control study, influenza season 2012/13

In the fifth season of Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe (I-MOVE), we undertook a multicentre case–control study (MCCS) in seven European Union (EU) Member States to measure 2012/13 influenza vaccine effectiveness against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory confirmed as influenza. The season was characterised by substantial co-circulation of influenza B, A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses. Practitioners systematically selected ILI patients to swab ≤7 days of symptom onset. We compared influenza-positive by type/subtype to influenza-negative patients among those who met the EU ILI case definition. We conducted a complete case analysis using logistic regression with study as fixed effect and calculated adjusted vaccine effectiveness (AVE), controlling for potential confounders (age, sex, symptom onset week and presence of chronic conditions). We calculated AVE by type/subtype. Study sites sent 7,954 ILI/acute respiratory infection records for analysis. After applying exclusion criteria, we included 4,627 ILI patients in the analysis of VE against influenza B (1,937 cases), 3,516 for A(H1N1)pdm09 (1,068 cases) and 3,340 for influenza A(H3N2) (730 cases). AVE was 49.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 32.4 to 62.0) against influenza B, 50.4% (95% CI: 28.4 to 65.6) against A(H1N1)pdm09 and 42.2% (95% CI: 14.9 to 60.7) against A(H3N2). Our results suggest an overall low to moderate AVE against influenza B, A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2), between 42 and 50%. In this season with many co-circulating viruses, the high sample size enabled stratified AVE by type/subtype. The low estimates indicate seasonal influenza vaccines should be improved to achieve acceptable protection levels

Low and decreasing vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3) in 2011/12 among vaccination target groups in Europe: results from the I-MOVE multicentre case-control study

Within the Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe (I-MOVE) project we conducted a multicentre case–control study in eight European Union (EU) Member States to estimate the 2011/12 influenza vaccine effectiveness against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as influenza A(H3) among the vaccination target groups. Practitioners systematically selected ILI / acute respiratory infection patients to swab within seven days of symptom onset. We restricted the study population to those meeting the EU ILI case definition and compared influenza A(H3) positive to influenza laboratory-negative patients. We used logistic regression with study site as fixed effect and calculated adjusted influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE), controlling for potential confounders (age group, sex, month of symptom onset, chronic diseases and related hospitalisations, number of practitioner visits in the previous year). Adjusted IVE was 25% (95% confidence intervals (CI): -6 to 47) among all ages (n=1,014), 63% (95% CI: 26 to 82) in adults aged between 15 and 59 years and 15% (95% CI: -33 to 46) among those aged 60 years and above. Adjusted IVE was 38% (95%CI: -8 to 65) in the early influenza season (up to week 6 of 2012) and -1% (95% CI: -60 to 37) in the late phase. The results suggested a low adjusted IVE in 2011/12. The lower IVE in the late season could be due to virus changes through the season or waning immunity. Virological surveillance should be enhanced to quantify change over time and understand its relation with duration of immunological protection. Seasonal influenza vaccines should be improved to achieve acceptable levels of protection.ECD

Synchronisation in Coupled Sine Circle Maps

We study the spatially synchronized and temporally periodic solutions of a 1-d lattice of coupled sine circle maps. We carry out an analytic stability analysis of this spatially synchronized and temporally periodic case and obtain the stability matrix in a neat block diagonal form. We find spatially synchronized behaviour over a substantial range of parameter space. We have also extended the analysis to higher spatial periods with similar results. Numerical simulations for various temporal periods of the synchronized solution, reveal that the entire structure of the Arnold tongues and the devil's staircase seen in the case of the single circle map can also be observed for the synchronized coupled sine circle map lattice. Our formalism should be useful in the study of spatially periodic behaviour in other coupled map lattices.Comment: uuencoded, 1 rextex file 14 pages, 3 postscript figure

Evolution of turbulent spots in a parallel shear flow

The evolution of turbulent spots in a parallel shear flow is studied by means of full three-dimensional numerical simulations. The flow is bounded by free surfaces and driven by a volume force. Three regions in the spanwise spot cross-section can be identified: a turbulent interior, an interface layer with prominent streamwise streaks and vortices and a laminar exterior region with a large scale flow induced by the presence of the spot. The lift-up of streamwise streaks which is caused by non-normal amplification is clearly detected in the region adjacent to the spot interface. The spot can be characterized by an exponentially decaying front that moves with a speed different from that of the cross-stream outflow or the spanwise phase velocity of the streamwise roll pattern. Growth of the spots seems to be intimately connected to the large scale outside flow, for a turbulent ribbon extending across the box in downstream direction does not show the large scale flow and does not grow. Quantitatively, the large scale flow induces a linear instability in the neighborhood of the spot, but the associated front velocity is too small to explain the spot spreading.Comment: 10 pages, 10 Postscript figure

Counting function fluctuations and extreme value threshold in multifractal patterns: the case study of an ideal 1/f1/f noise

To understand the sample-to-sample fluctuations in disorder-generated multifractal patterns we investigate analytically as well as numerically the statistics of high values of the simplest model - the ideal periodic $1/f$ Gaussian noise. By employing the thermodynamic formalism we predict the characteristic scale and the precise scaling form of the distribution of number of points above a given level. We demonstrate that the powerlaw forward tail of the probability density, with exponent controlled by the level, results in an important difference between the mean and the typical values of the counting function. This can be further used to determine the typical threshold $x_m$ of extreme values in the pattern which turns out to be given by $x_m^{(typ)}=2-c\ln{\ln{M}}/\ln{M}$ with $c=3/2$. Such observation provides a rather compelling explanation of the mechanism behind universality of $c$. Revealed mechanisms are conjectured to retain their qualitative validity for a broad class of disorder-generated multifractal fields. In particular, we predict that the typical value of the maximum $p_{max}$ of intensity is to be given by $-\ln{p_{max}} = \alpha_{-}\ln{M} + \frac{3}{2f'(\alpha_{-})}\ln{\ln{M}} + O(1)$, where $f(\alpha)$ is the corresponding singularity spectrum vanishing at $\alpha=\alpha_{-}>0$. For the $1/f$ noise we also derive exact as well as well-controlled approximate formulas for the mean and the variance of the counting function without recourse to the thermodynamic formalism.Comment: 28 pages; 7 figures, published version with a few misprints corrected, editing done and references adde