The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Dihydrochalcones: Implication in resistance to oxidative stress and bioactivities against advanced glycation end-products and vasoconstriction

Flavonoids are a group of polyphenol compounds with known antioxidant activities. Among them, dihydrochalcones are mainly found in apple leaves (Malus domestica). Glycosylated dihydrochalcones were previously found in large amounts in leaves of two genotypes of Malus with contrasting resistance to fire blight, a bacterial disease caused by Erwinia amylovora. In the present study we demonstrate that soluble polyphenol patterns comprised phloridzin alone or in combination with two additional dihydrochalcones, identified as sieboldin and trilobatin. Presence of sieboldin in young leaves correlated well with a high 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) free radical scavenging activity. Moreover, these leaves displayed enhanced tolerance to paraquat, a photooxidative-stress generating herbicide. Interestingly, phloridzin had a high activity in the oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) assay, but its presence alone in leaves did not correlate with tolerance to paraquat. In order to further characterise the activity of these compounds, we tested their ability to prevent oxidative-dependent formation of advanced glycation end-products (AGEs) and phenylephrine-induced contraction of isolated rat mesenteric arteries. The antioxidant capacity of sieboldin was clearly demonstrated by showing that this compound (i) prevented vasoconstriction and (ii) inhibited AGEs formation. Both assays provided interesting information concerning a potential use of sieboldin as a therapeutic. Hence, our results strongly argue for a bioactivity of dihydrochalcones as functional antioxidants in the resistance of Malus leaves to oxidative stress. In addition, we demonstrate for the first time that sieboldin is a powerful multipotent antioxidant, effective in preventing physiopathological processes. Further work should aim at demonstrating the potential use of this compound as a therapeutic in treating free radical-involving diseases

Theorie de Lubin-Tate non-abelienne et representations elliptiques

Harris and Taylor proved that the supercuspidal part of the cohomology of the Lubin-Tate tower realizes both the local Langlands and Jacquet-Langlands correspondences, as conjectured by Carayol. Recently, Boyer computed the remaining part of the cohomology and exhibited two defects : first, the representations of GL\_d which appear are of a very particular and restrictive form ; second, the Langlands correspondence is not realized anymore. In this paper, we study the cohomology complex in a suitable equivariant derived category, and show how it encodes Langlands correspondance for all elliptic representations. Then we transfer this result to the Drinfeld tower via an enhancement of a theorem of Faltings due to Fargues. We deduce that Deligne's weight-monodromy conjecture is true for varieties uniformized by Drinfeld's coverings of his symmetric spaces.Comment: 54 page

Impact of culture towards disaster risk reduction

Number of natural disasters has risen sharply worldwide making the risk of disasters a global concern. These disasters have created significant losses and damages to humans, economy and society. Despite the losses and damages created by disasters, some individuals and communities do not attached much significance to natural disasters. Risk perception towards a disaster not only depends on the danger it could create but also the behaviour of the communities and individuals that is governed by their culture. Within this context, this study examines the relationship between culture and disaster risk reduction (DRR). A comprehensive literature review is used for the study to evaluate culture, its components and to analyse a series of case studies related to disaster risk. It was evident from the study that in some situations, culture has become a factor for the survival of the communities from disasters where as in some situations culture has acted as a barrier for effective DRR activities. The study suggests community based DRR activities as a mechanism to integrate with culture to effectively manage disaster risk

Rectification of the Water Permeability in COS-7 Cells at 22, 10 and 0°C

The osmotic and permeability parameters of a cell membrane are essential physico-chemical properties of a cell and particularly important with respect to cell volume changes and the regulation thereof. Here, we report the hydraulic conductivity, Lp, the non-osmotic volume, Vb, and the Arrhenius activation energy, Ea, of mammalian COS-7 cells. The ratio of Vb to the isotonic cell volume, Vc iso, was 0.29. Ea, the activation energy required for the permeation of water through the cell membrane, was 10,700, and 12,000 cal/mol under hyper- and hypotonic conditions, respectively. Average values for Lp were calculated from swell/shrink curves by using an integrated equation for Lp. The curves represented the volume changes of 358 individually measured cells, placed into solutions of nonpermeating solutes of 157 or 602 mOsm/kg (at 0, 10 or 22°C) and imaged over time. Lp estimates for all six combinations of osmolality and temperature were calculated, resulting in values of 0.11, 0.21, and 0.10 µm/min/atm for exosmotic flow and 0.79, 1.73 and 1.87 µm/min/atm for endosmotic flow (at 0, 10 and 22°C, respectively). The unexpected finding of several fold higher Lp values for endosmotic flow indicates highly asymmetric membrane permeability for water in COS-7. This phenomenon is known as rectification and has mainly been reported for plant cell, but only rarely for animal cells. Although the mechanism underlying the strong rectification found in COS-7 cells is yet unknown, it is a phenomenon of biological interest and has important practical consequences, for instance, in the development of optimal cryopreservation

Rotary-Wing Aeroelasticity: Current Status and Future Trends

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/76177/1/AIAA-9022-592.pd

Effectiveness of GenoType MTBDRsl in excluding TB drug resistance in a clinical trial

OBJECTIVES: To assess the performance of the GenoType MTBDRsl v1, a line-probe assay (LPA), to exclude baseline resistance to fluoroquinolones (FQs) and second-line injectables (SLIs) in the Standard Treatment Regimen of Anti-tuberculosis Drugs for Patients With MDR-TB 1 (STREAM 1) trial. METHODS: Direct sputum MTBDRsl results in the site laboratories were compared to indirect phenotypic drug susceptibility testing (pDST) results in the central laboratory, with DNA sequencing as a reference standard. RESULTS: Of 413 multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) patients tested using MTBDRsl and pDST, 389 (94.2%) were FQ-susceptible and 7 (1.7%) FQ-resistant, while 17 (4.1%) had an inconclusive MTBDRsl result. For SLI, 372 (90.1%) were susceptible, 5 (1.2%) resistant and 36 (8.7%) inconclusive. There were 9 (2.3%) FQ discordant pDST/MTBDRsl results, of which 3 revealed a mutation and 5 (1.3%) SLI discordant pDST/MTBDRsl results, none of which were mutants on sequencing. Among the 17 FQ- and SLI MTBDRsl-inconclusive samples, sequencing showed 1 FQ- and zero SLI-resistant results, similar to frequencies among the conclusive MTBDRsl. The majority of inconclusive MTBDRsl results were associated with low bacillary load samples (acid-fast bacilli smear-negative or scantily positive) compared to conclusive results (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: MTBDRsl can facilitate the rapid exclusion of FQ and SLI resistances for enrolment in clinical trials

Role of salicylic acid in acclimation to low temperature

Low temperature is one of the most important limiting factors for plant growth throughout the world. Exposure to low temperature may cause various phenotypic and physiological symptoms, and may result in oxidative stress, leading to loss of membrane integrity and to the impairment of photosynthesis and general metabolic processes. Salicylic acid (SA),phenolic compound produced by a wide range of plant species, a may participate in many physiological and metabolic reactions in plants. It has been shown that exogenous SA may provide protection against low temperature injury in various plant species, while various stress factors may also modify the synthesis and metabolism of SA. In the present review, recent results on the effects of SA and related compounds in processes leading to acclimation to low temperatures will be discussed