A Dynamic Look at Subprime Loan Performance

Does delinquency have any predictive power for the future performance of a mortgage? Analysis of a sample of subprime mortgages from the Loanperformance database on securitized private-label pool collateral using a two-step estimation procedure to control for the endogeneity of delinquency reveals strong support for the distressed prepayment theory that very delinquent loans are more likely to prepay than to default and that prepayment rates increase substantially as delinquency intensity increases. While delinquency leads predominantly to termination of a loan through prepayment, negative equity leads to termination through default. Does delinquency have any predictive power for the future performance of a mortgage? Analysis of a sample of subprime mortgages from the Loanperformance database on securitized private-label pool collateral using a two-step estimation procedure to control for the endogeneity of delinquency reveals strong support for the distressed prepayment theory that very delinquent loans are more likely to prepay than to default and that prepayment rates increase substantially as delinquency intensity increases. While delinquency leads predominantly to termination of a loan through prepayment, negative equity leads to termination through default

The Delinquency of Subprime Mortgages

The lag between the time that a borrower stops making payments on a mortgage and the termination of the loan plays a critical role in the costs borne by both borrower and lender on defaulted loans. While the prior literature uses a multinomial logit approach, statistical tests indicate that we cannot accept the associated assumption of Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA). Using a nested logit specification our results suggest that the recipe for delinquency involves young loans to low credit score borrowers with low or no documentation in housing markets with moderately volatile and flat or declining nominal house prices

A dynamic look at subprime loan performance

This paper examines the implications of delinquency on the performance of subprime mortgages. Specifically, we examine whether delinquency has any predictive power of the future performance of a mortgage. Using a sample of subprime mortgages from the Loan performance database on securitized private-label pool collateral, we utilize a two-step estimation procedure to control for the endogeneity of delinquency in an estimation of default and prepayment probabilities. We find strong support for the *distressed prepayment* theory that very delinquent loans are more likely to prepay than to default and that the rate of increase of prepayment is substantially larger as delinquency intensity increases. Delinquency predominately leads to termination of a loan through prepayment while negative equity leads to termination through default.Mortgages

The delinquency of subprime mortgages

This paper focuses on understanding the determinants of the performance of subprime mortgages. A growing body of literature recognizes the substantial lag between the time that a borrower stops making payments on a mortgage and the termination of the loan. The duration of this lag and the method by which the delinquency is ultimately terminated play a critical role in the costs borne by both borrower and lender. Using nested and multinomial logit, we find that delinquency and default are sensitive to current economic conditions and housing markets. Credit scores and loan characteristics also play important roles.Mortgages ; Subprime mortgage

Transition region ignition characteristics of n-heptane fuel sprays

Ignition studies were perferred on monodisperse n-heptane sprays at atmospheric pressure over a range of equivalence ratios and droplet diameters. A capacitive discharge spark ignition system was used as the ignition source, providing independent control of spark energy and duration. Preliminary measurements were made to optimize spark duration and spark gap, optimum conditions being those at which the maximum frequency or probability of ignition was observed. The effect of spark duration on ignition frequency for several spark energies was determined for equivalence ratios of 0.5 and 1.0 and initial droplet diameters of 28 and 68 microns. Spark duration had little effect on ignition frequency over the entire 15 to 170 mu s range examined. Spark durations of 70 to 80 mu s were used for all subsequent work. The spark gap was optimized at equivalence ratios of 0.6, 0.8 and 1.0 and initial droplet diameters of 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 microns by varying the electrode spacing from 0.5 to 5.0 mm while maintaining a constant spark energy. The optimum gap was determined to be 3.0 mm for nearly all conditions

Ethical difficulties in clinical practice : experiences of European doctors

Background: Ethics support services are growing in Europe to help doctors in dealing with ethical difficulties. Currently, insufficient attention has been focused on the experiences of doctors who have faced ethical difficulties in these countries to provide an evidence base for the development of these services. Methods: A survey instrument was adapted to explore the types of ethical dilemma faced by European doctors, how they ranked the difficulty of these dilemmas, their satisfaction with the resolution of a recent ethically difficult case and the types of help they would consider useful. The questionnaire was translated and given to general internists in Norway, Switzerland, Italy and the UK. Results: Survey respondents (n = 656, response rate 43%) ranged in age from 28 to 82 years, and averaged 25 years in practice. Only a minority (17.6%) reported having access to ethics consultation in individual cases. The ethical difficulties most often reported as being encountered were uncertain or impaired decisionmaking capacity (94.8%), disagreement among caregivers (81.2%) and limitation of treatment at the end of life (79.3%). The frequency of most ethical difficulties varied among countries, as did the type of issue considered most difficult. The types of help most often identified as potentially useful were professional reassurance about the decision being correct (47.5%), someone capable of providing specific advice (41.1%), help in weighing outcomes (36%) and clarification of the issues (35.9%). Few of the types of help expected to be useful varied among countries. Conclusion: Cultural differences may indeed influence how doctors perceive ethical difficulties. The type of help needed, however, did not vary markedly. The general structure of ethics support services would not have to be radically altered to suit cultural variations among the surveyed countries

Analisis Kerentanan Fisik Permukiman di Kawasan Rawan Bencana Tsunami Wilayah Parangtritis, YOGYAKARTA

Indonesia memiliki potensi tinggi terhadap tsunami. Keberadaan Ring of Fire mengakibatkan tingginya intensitas proses geologi dasar laut yang dapat menghasilkan tsunami. Parangtritis merupakan daerah rawan bencana tsunami, terletak di kepesisiran selatan jawa. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengidentifikasi parameter-parameter kerentanan bangunan dan mengetahui karakteristik kerentanan permukiman di kawasan rawan tsunami wilayah Parangtritis, Yogyakarta. Metode penelitian ini adalah scoring dan pembobotan variabel kerentanan bangunan berdasarkan sampel bangunan pada kluster-kluster yang diperoleh secara sistematic. Tingkat kerentanan diperoleh melalui penilaian terhadap parameter jenis material, kondisi lantai dasar, tingkat bangunan, dan orientasi bangunan. Hasil penelitian berupa Peta Kerentanan Permukiman Kawasan Rawan Tsunami Parangtritis, Yogyakarta skala 1:24.000. Hasil menunjukkan kerentanan bangunan permukiman didominasi oleh kerentanan tinggi, khususnya pada kawasan hunian penduduk. Tingkat kerentanan rendah berada pada Kluster 1 dan 16 yang merupakan kawasan. Parameter jenis material pada permukiman Parangtritis secara umum cukup baik, berupa bata/batako. Kondisi lantai dasar dan tingkat bangunan didominasi kelas kerentanan tingg

Magnetism of coupled spin tetrahedra in ilinskite-type KCu5_{5}O2_2(SeO3_3)2_2Cl3_3

Synthesis, thermodynamic properties, and microscopic magnetic model of ilinskite-type KCu$_{5}$O$_2$(SeO$_3$)$_2$Cl$_3$ built by corner-sharing Cu$_4$ tetrahedra are reported, and relevant magnetostructural correlations are discussed. Quasi-one-dimensional magnetic behavior with the short-range order around 50\,K and the absence of long-range order down to at least 2\,K is observed experimentally and explained in terms of weakly coupled spin ladders (tubes) with a complex topology formed upon fragmentation of the tetrahedral network. This fragmentation is rooted in the non-trivial effect of the SeO$_3$ groups that render the Cu--O--Cu superexchange strongly ferromagnetic.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figure