Topics in retail forecasting

Retail forecasting is a diverse and dynamic research area encompassing a variety of different topics. The advent of online channels, the increasing complexity of product ranges, and the shortening lifespan of many items are as examples of some of the new challenges that maintain the importance of improving forecasting in this domain. This thesis aims to address questions in retail forecasting that are closely linked with relevant problems faced in the industry. As such, the problems have been identified through a combination of reviewing the academic literature, discussion, and engagement with practitioners. This thesis starts by considering the situation where demand series are influenced by multiple seasonal and calendar effects. This is a challenge which is widespread due to high frequency sampling and decision making in retailing. We develop a new model to accommodate flexibility in modelling complex seasonal patterns, which also aids with mitigating the effect of short demand histories on forecasting performance. The new model is embedded in an innovations state-space formulation and it is demonstrated empirically using wholesale food data to provide competitive forecasting accuracy to established benchmarks. Next, the dual problems of SKU-level model parameter estimation and forecasting are considered. For retailers experiencing frequent promotional activities, this is a principal issue. The parameter estimates provide insights about the elasticity of different factors on demand for the SKU, and therefore inform marketing planning. Accurate forecasts, for both promotional and baseline periods, support other functions such as replenishment and inventory management. First, a geometric parameter inheritance procedure is proposed, which uses aggregate information within a product hierarchy to improve parameter estimates under certain assumptions. At brand level, it is typically easier to better estimate elasticity effects, making this strategy preferable. Second, a debiasing approximation is derived for the forecasting procedure, which is demonstrated to reduce bias, whilst remaining competitive in terms of forecast accuracy, as shown in a simulation study. The debiasing approximation is then evaluated with an inventory simulation study, which examines the conditions under which improvements in inventory performance can be gained. The conclusions give useful insights for inventory managers, and demonstrate that bias is a significant factor in inventory performance

'I Descended to the Depths of the Earth':A Rhetorical Poetics of the Jewish Babylonian Aramaic Incantation Bowls

This dissertation investigates the use of narrative spells in the magical context of the Jewish Babylonian Aramaic (JBA) incantation bowls. These ancient clay bowls were inscribed with incantations that were designed to protect their owners from demons. But the bowls do not just adjure or threaten demons. They also use narrative spells to achieve their goals. This dissertation collates the narrative materials in the four hundred JBA bowls published thus far. It makes various important distinctions within these materials, and uses the concepts of magic, rhetoric, and rhetorical narratology to examine how the JBA bowls harnessed the power of narrative to generate a change in the world and persuade or compel demons to do things. Persuasive appeals reveal people’s orientations and attitudes towards supernatural powers, and the rhetorical framework outlined in this work draws attention to the multiple but neglected forms of effective narrative deployed in the bowls. It demonstrates how the efficacy of these spells is built upon distinctive narrative properties such as description, narrative space, and the implicit movement of simple narratives towards resolution. It also examines how the bowls reveal the demonology of late antique Judaism, and argues that their texts show the human actors behind the bowls in the active, imaginative process of constructing and negotiating their relationships with angels, demons, and God. This book is thus not just about the use of words to change the world; it is also a story of imagination in the service of magic

Investigation into the features of written discourse at levels B2 and C1 of the CEFR

A thesis submitted to the University of Bedfordshire in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of PhilosophyValidation in language testing is an ongoing process in which information is collected through investigations into the design, implementation, products and impacts of an assessment (Sireci, 2007). This includes the cognitive processes elicited from candidates by a test (Weir, 2005). This study investigated the English Speaking Board’s ESOL International examinations at levels B2 and C1 of the CEFR. The study considered the role of discourse competence in successful performances through examination of cognitive phases employed by candidates and metadiscourse markers and whether the use fit with models such as the CEFR and Field (2004) and so contributed to the validation argument. The study had two strands. The process strand of the study was largely qualitative and focussed on the cognitive processes which candidates used to compose their texts. Verbal reports were carried out with a total of twelve participants, six at each level. The product strand of the study analysed the use of metadiscourse markers in the scripts of sixty candidates in order to identify developing features of discourse competence at levels B2 and C1. The process strand of the study identified that there were statistically significant differences in the cognitive phases employed by the participants in the study. The investigation also identified a number of differences in what B2 and C1 learners attended to while carrying out the different phases. The product strand of the study found no statistically significant differences in the use of metadiscourse markers used by candidates at the two levels, but observed differences in the way particular metadiscourse markers were employed. These differences indicate the direction for a possible larger-scale study. Unlike previous studies into metadiscourse (Burneikaite, 2008; Plakans, 2009; Bax, Nataksuhara & Waller, forthcoming) the study controlled for task, text type and rhetorical pattern and nationality. The study suggested that discourse competence contributed to higher-level performances in writing and that the examinations under investigation elicited a wide range of cognitive phases from C1 candidates. The study also suggested that many of the CEFR’s statements about the development of discourse competence at the higher levels are correct

The Bible in the Bowls

The Bible in the Bowls represents a complete catalogue of Hebrew Bible quotations found in the published corpus of Jewish Babylonian Aramaic magic bowls. As our only direct epigraphic witnesses to the Hebrew Bible from late antique Babylonia, the bowls are uniquely placed to contribute to research on the (oral) transmission of the biblical text in late antiquity; the pre-Masoretic Babylonian vocalisation tradition; the formation of the liturgy and the early development of the Jewish prayer book; the social locations of biblical knowledge in late antique Babylonia and socio-religious typologies of the bowls; and the dynamics of scriptural citation in ancient Jewish magic. In a number of cases, the bowls also contain the earliest attestations of biblical verses not found in the Dead Sea Scrolls. Pre-dating the next available evidence by four to five centuries, the bowls are a valuable resource for biblical text critics. By making these valuable witnesses to the Hebrew Bible easily available to scholars, The Bible in the Bowls is designed to facilitate further research by linguists, liturgists, biblical text critics, and students of Jewish magic. It collates and transcribes each biblical verse as it appears in the published bowls, furnishes details of the bowls’ publication, and notes various features of interest. The catalogue is also accompanied by an accessible introduction that briefly introduces the incantation bowls, surveys their deployment of scripture in light of their magical goals, and discusses the orthography of the quotations and what this can tell us about the encounter with the biblical text in late antique Babylonia

The Effect of Input Enhancement on Vocabulary Learning: Is There An Impact upon Receptive And Productive Knowledge?

This article reports on a quasi-experimental study investigating the effectiveness of two different teaching approaches, explicit teaching and explicit teaching combined with textual and aural input enhancement used to teach lexical items to elementary level learners of Turkish in a higher education context. Forty participants were divided into two equal groups and given a pre-test measuring productive and receptive knowledge of nine targeted lexical items naming common types of food and drink. Each group was then given sixty minutes instruction on ‘restaurant Turkish’, using a direct communicative approach. Group one (comparison group) received explicit teaching only, while group two (experimental group) received the same teaching but also used a menu where the target words were bolded (textual input enhancement) and listened to the target words modelled by the teacher three times (aural input enhancement). Following the treatment, tests measuring productive and receptive knowledge of the target items were administered. This process was repeated with a delay of two weeks following the treatment. Analysis of gain scores for receptive and productive tests made at the pre-, post- and delayed stage reveal larger gains for the experimental group in each test. These were statistically significant when compared with the comparison group’s scores for production at the immediate post- test stage. Within group tests showed that each treatment had a significant impact on receptive and productive knowledge of vocabulary targeted, with a larger short term effect on the experimental group. Previous studies in this area have tended to focus on the use of input enhancement in relation to the learning of grammatical forms but these results demonstrate some clear benefits when teaching lexis, which have clear implications for further research and teaching

Using a pedagogic corpus to develop language awareness

In most classes, students read and listen to a lot of texts from their course books and external sources. These texts are often used for comprehension work but can also be used to form a ‘pedagogic corpus’ (Willis 2003) and exploited to develop awareness of the language patterns they contain. This short article gives two examples of how this can be achieved

Methods adopted in teaching English to young learners in India

This article presents a study investigating the teaching methods adopted in teaching English language to young learners in India. The findings suggest that teachers are limited in the choice of methods being adopted in class due to a range of constraints which exist within classrooms. However, teachers are using what Prabhu (1990) refers to as their ‘sense of plausibility’ to determine what works well for young learners and are relatively involved in a principled eclectic approach to teaching, using various methods that exist within the field of English language teaching. Teachers recognise that methods and approaches adopted should create a supportive learning environment and reflect the students’ needs and requirements in order to lead to successful language learning

The Bible in the Bowls

The Bible in the Bowls represents a complete catalogue of Hebrew Bible quotations found in the published corpus of Jewish Babylonian Aramaic magic bowls. As our only direct epigraphic witnesses to the Hebrew Bible from late antique Babylonia, the bowls are uniquely placed to contribute to research on the (oral) transmission of the biblical text in late antiquity; the pre-Masoretic Babylonian vocalisation tradition; the formation of the liturgy and the early development of the Jewish prayer book; the social locations of biblical knowledge in late antique Babylonia and socio-religious typologies of the bowls; and the dynamics of scriptural citation in ancient Jewish magic. In a number of cases, the bowls also contain the earliest attestations of biblical verses not found in the Dead Sea Scrolls. Pre-dating the next available evidence by four to five centuries, the bowls are a valuable resource for biblical text critics. By making these valuable witnesses to the Hebrew Bible easily available to scholars, The Bible in the Bowls is designed to facilitate further research by linguists, liturgists, biblical text critics, and students of Jewish magic. It collates and transcribes each biblical verse as it appears in the published bowls, furnishes details of the bowls’ publication, and notes various features of interest. The catalogue is also accompanied by an accessible introduction that briefly introduces the incantation bowls, surveys their deployment of scripture in light of their magical goals, and discusses the orthography of the quotations and what this can tell us about the encounter with the biblical text in late antique Babylonia