Recruitment patterns and processes in Canadian parkland mallards

An improved ability to assess whether individuals have been added through immigration or natality and lost through emigration or mortality could alleviate several problems in population ecology. Fortunately, advances in stable isotope techniques now allow the movements of individuals to be retraced from tissue values and provide an opportunity to link information about the origins of individuals with demographic rates so that questions about the significance of dispersal can be assessed. I used such an approach by combining feather isotope information with demographic rates derived from capture-mark-recapture of individual mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) breeding in the Canadian aspen parklands, at multiple spatiotemporal scales, to answer questions about population persistence, settling patterns by dispersers, and the fitness of immigrant birds relative to residents. Feather isotope (ä34S, äD, ä15N, and ä13C) values from an independent sample of flightless mallard ducklings sampled from across the mid-continent breeding range was used to validate an existing model used for origin assignments. Spatial resolution analysis within the mid-continent mallard breeding range generally showed a loss in prediction when attempting to assign individuals to more narrowly separated geographic origins among boreal, aspen parkland and prairie regions. For feather äD, spatial resolution may be limited by temporal patterns of local climatic events that produce variability in consumer tissue values. Thus, the use of multiple feather isotope signals would provide more reliable information about the origin of individuals for addressing questions about long-distance dispersal in yearling mallards. Demographic rescue in an apparent population “sink” near Minnedosa, Manitoba, Canada, was due to elevated survival rates from a highly productive group of nesting female mallards using nest tunnels (i.e., an artificial nesting structure) and recruitment of yearling females having natal origins within the aspen parklands. There was little evidence that immigration by yearling females dispersing long-distances was important to annual population growth rates. Consistently high annual survival rates of adult females using nest tunnels lowered the recruitment rates needed for population stability. While tunnel-origin and within-region recruitment of yearling females were nearly equally important to local population growth rate, fine-scale limitations of isotopic origin assignments prevented further assessment of where recruits originated from within the aspen parkland region. Factors related to breeding area settling patterns of yearling females are not well understood despite implications to local population dynamics. The likelihood that immigrant yearling females would settle in a parkland breeding area was positively correlated with local breeding-pair density and the amount of perennial nest cover, but was negatively correlated with the amount of wetlands. Although these relationships were not well estimated, they are most consistent a hypothesis that females were attracted to breeding sites by conspecific cues rather than avoidance. Immigrants comprised an average of 9% (range: 0 – 39% over 22 sites) of yearling recruits; most had natal origins in the U.S. prairie pothole region but a non-trivial number originated from the boreal forest, indicating a high degree of connectedness among breeding regions resulting from long-distance natal dispersal. One of the most frequent explanations for strong site fidelity in breeding female ducks is that females benefit from site familiarity. However, evidence for differential reproductive success between immigrant and resident yearling females was weak, On sites with favourable wetland conditions and low breeding-pair densities immigrant females were more likely to breed and nest successfully than were residents whereas under opposite wetland and pair conditions, resident females were favoured. Thus, the costs and benefits of a natal dispersal decision seemed to vary with social context and environmental conditions, and further work is needed to clarify these processes

Spatial and temporal changes in seasonal range attributes in a declining barren-ground caribou herd

From 1996 to 2015 the Bathurst caribou herd has declined from approximately 349,000 to 20,000 animals. Aboriginal traditional knowledge (TK) has recently observed the later arrival of the herd below the treeline, an attribute of the autumn range. Science also predicts that seasonal range attributes (e.g., area, location) likely vary with population size, and perhaps climate. We used Aboriginal TK and science to identify several seasonal range attributes that were ex­amined for changes through time (decreasing population abundance). Attributes of seasonal ranges for female Bathurst caribou were calculated using satellite radio-collar data from January 1996 through October 2013. Climate data from CircumArctic Rangifer Monitoring and Assessment Network were analyzed for trends from 1979 to 2009. Analyses showed a significant decrease in the area of post-calving and autumn ranges, but no changes in winter and spring ranges. Results supported Aboriginal TK that female caribou have shifted the autumn range farther from the treeline and moved into the forest later in the year. Analysis of climate variables found no trends at the spatio-temporal scale of the post-calving to autumn ranges. Working hypotheses to explain these patterns, which are not mutually exclusive, include reduced predation risk, increased use of core areas at lower population density, and greater utilization of areas of taiga where arboreal and ground lichen availability and accessibility are relatively higher than in the forest. This analysis demonstrates how including Aboriginal TK can lead to stronger connections and results, with potential to provide new and different insights for further investigations

CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

CMB-S4---the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment---is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe, from the highest energies at the dawn of time through the growth of structure to the present day. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semi-analytic projection tool, targeted explicitly towards optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2--3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semi-analytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for $r > 0.003$ at greater than $5\sigma$, or, in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of $r < 0.001$ at $95\%$ CL.Comment: 24 pages, 8 figures, 9 tables, submitted to ApJ. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1907.0447

CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

Abstract: CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5σ, or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL