The Empirics of General Equilibrium Trade Theory: What Have We Learned?

This paper provides a selective survey of over half a century of research linking the neoclassical trade model to the data. Tensions between restrictive formulations of the model and real world complexities have launched a research agenda aimed at refining and reformulating theory to provide more convincing links between theoretical specification and empirical research design. Three lessons stand out. First, competitive and new trade theory models are complementary rather than competing ways to look at many existing empirical regularities. Second, the Ricardian formulation has proved to be a useful framework for structural estimation exercises regarding the pattern of international specialization. Third, empirical confirmations of the core predictions of the model provide scientific support for employing the competitive trade model in structural estimation.neoclassical trade theory, estimation and testing of trade theories.

On the Magic Behind David Ricardo's Four Mystical Numbers

Building on Ruffin's recent interpretation of Ricardo's four numbers as labour embodied in trade rather than domestic labour coefficients, I identify the magic behind these four mystical numbers. I show that the magic lies in Ricardo's underlying logic in predicting the pattern of international trade. Using a single graphical framework, I show that Ricardo's logic provides a device for a unified treatment of the commodity and the factor content predictions of international trade with an arbitrary number of goods, factors and countries.Ricardo’s magic numbers, pattern of trade predictions, higher dimensional issues in trade theory.

Testing the general validity of the Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem: the natural experiment of Japan

We exploit Japan's 19th century opening up to trade to test a general formulation of the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem. This formulation is based on Ohlin's measure of factor scarcity where autarky factor prices impose a refutable prediction on the economy's factor content of trade. Our test combines factor price data in Japan's autarky period with commodity trade data and a technology matrix in Japan's early free trade period. Our technology matrix is derived from a major Japanese survey of agricultural techniques during the early Meiji period, accounts by European visitors and numerous studies by Japanese and western scholars that draw on village records, business accounts and other historical sources. Evaluating Japan's factor content of trade during 1868-1875 at the corresponding autarky factor prices, we fail to reject the Heckscher-Ohlin prediction in each sample year.

Testing the General Validity of the Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem: The Natural Experiment of Japan

We exploit Japan’s 19th century move from autarky to free trade to provide the first test of the general validity of the price formulation of the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem. In this formulation a country’s autarky factor price vector imposes a single refutable prediction on the economy’s factor content of trade. Our test combines factor price data from Japan’s late autarky period with Japan’s factor content of trade calculated with the technologies of the country of origin of traded goods. The direct and indirect input requirements are constructed from many historical sources, including a major Japanese survey of agricultural techniques and a rich set of 19th century comparative cost studies. Evaluating Japan’s factor content of trade during 1865-1876 at autarky factor prices, we fail to reject the Heckscher-Ohlin hypothesis in each sample year.testing the price version of Heckscher-Ohlin, the natural experiment of Japan

Testing the General Validity of the Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem: The Natural Experiment of Japan

We exploit Japan's 19th century opening up to trade to test a general formulation of the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem. This formulation is based on Ohlin's measure of factor scarcity where autarky factor prices impose a refutable prediction on the economy's factor content of trade. Our test combines factor price data in Japan's autarky period with commodity trade data and a technology matrix in Japan's early free trade period. Our technology matrix is derived from a major Japanese survey of agricultural techniques during the early Meiji period, accounts by European visitors and numerous studies by Japanese and western scholars that draw on village records, business accounts and other historical sources. Evaluating Japan's factor content of trade during 1868-1875 at the corresponding autarky factor prices, we fail to reject the Heckscher-Ohlin prediction in each sample year.

The impact of trade preferences on multilateral tariff cuts: evidence for Japan

Opposing theoretical predictions about the effects of trade preferences on multilateral tariff cuts point to the need for empirical analysis to determine whether preferential trade agreements promote or hinder multilateral trade liberalization. This paper examines the impact of Japan’s trade preferences on its multi-lateral tariff reductions. Using detailed product level data, we find that Japan’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) acted as a stumbling block for the country’s external tariff liberalization during the Uruguay Round of multi-lateral trade negotiations

Estimating the effects of the container revolution on world trade

Many historical accounts have asserted that containerization triggered complementary technological and organizational changes that revolutionized global freight transport. We are the first to suggest an identification strategy for estimating the effects of the container revolution on world trade. Our empirical strategy exploits time and cross-sectional variation in countries’ first adoption of container facilities and combines it with product-level variation in containerizability and container usage. Applying our container variables on a large panel of product level trade flows for the period 1962-1990, our estimates suggest economically large concurrent and cumulative effects of containerization and lend support for the view of containerization being a driver of 20th century economic globalization