Model reduction by trimming for a class of semi-Markov reliability models and the corresponding error bound

Semi-Markov processes have proved to be an effective and convenient tool to construct models of systems that achieve reliability by redundancy and reconfiguration. These models are able to depict complex system architectures and to capture the dynamics of fault arrival and system recovery. A disadvantage of this approach is that the models can be extremely large, which poses both a model and a computational problem. Techniques are needed to reduce the model size. Because these systems are used in critical applications where failure can be expensive, there must be an analytically derived bound for the error produced by the model reduction technique. A model reduction technique called trimming is presented that can be applied to a popular class of systems. Automatic model generation programs were written to help the reliability analyst produce models of complex systems. This method, trimming, is easy to implement and the error bound easy to compute. Hence, the method lends itself to inclusion in an automatic model generator

The Economics of Efficient Phosphorus Abatement in a Watershed

This study presents a method to determine efficient environmental targets at a watershed level. Efficient targets are devised by estimating abatement cost and cost of environmental damages and minimizing their sum. The method was applied to a case study of phosphorus pollution in a watershed in Oklahoma. Several cumulative scenarios with alternative abatement options were simulated and efficient targets were determined. As the number of abatement options at disposal to agricultural sources increased, their optimal abatement expanded relative to the abatement at the point source. Efficient targets were found to be dependent on the choice of policy that stimulates abatement.efficiency, environmental targets, phosphorus pollution, watershed, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Economic Analysis of Management Practices to Reduce Phosphorus Load to Lake Eucha and Spavinaw

Changes in management practices are often proposed to reduce phosphorus loading from a watershed due to over application of poultry litter. This study determines the choice, location, and level of each best management practice in the watershed to meet a Total Maximum Daily Load and margins of safety at least cost.best management practice, phosphorus runoff, poultry litter, Target MOTAD, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Experimental And Theoretical Study Of The Sign Preference In The Nucleation Of Water Vapor

The nucleation of water vapor on ions in atmospheres of helium and argon was studied using an expansion type cloud chamber. Separation of the positive and negative ions was achieved so that the nucleation could be studied as a function of both the sign of the ionic charge and the supersaturation. A semiphenominological theory was developed as an extension of the classical liquid drop theory to include the effects of the ionic charge on the nucleation process. The theoretical model of the prenucleation embryo was assumed to possess an oriented dipole surface layer with the direction of orientation dependent on the sign of the ionic charge. The theory predicts not only the increase in the nucleation rate compared to that for homogeneous nucleation and a difference in rate between positive and negative ions, the negative ions having the higher nucleation rate, but also predicts a correction term to the classical theory of homogeneous nucleation for polar molecules which exhibit an electrical double layer at the liquid surface. Comparison of the theoretical and experimental results for nucleation on both positive and negative ions yields good agreement and indicates the prenucleation embryo is probably a tightly bonded highly structured cluster possessing an oriented dipole surface layer. © 1971

A Correction To Classical Homogeneous Nucleation Theory For Polar Molecules Exhibiting An Electric Double Layer At The Liquid Surface

An oriented dipole surface layer is added to the classical liquid drop model of nucleation to account for the surface behavior of substances having polar nonsymmetrical molecules. The preliminary treatment of the change in free energy as given by Abraham is modified to include Fletcher\u27s exponential decay of the degree of orientation. An additional correction for the excess binding energy due to the presence of a foreign molecule in the prenucleation cluster is included to account for the inflections observed in the experimental results of Allen and Kassner. The resulting free energy of formation is combined with the kinetic treatment of Frenkel to obtain a nucleation rate law. The theoretical results are compared to the experimental results of Allen and Kassner as a function of both supersaturation and temperature. The agreement is good once the heterogeneous component is taken into account. © 1972

Short-Term Memory in Orthogonal Neural Networks

We study the ability of linear recurrent networks obeying discrete time dynamics to store long temporal sequences that are retrievable from the instantaneous state of the network. We calculate this temporal memory capacity for both distributed shift register and random orthogonal connectivity matrices. We show that the memory capacity of these networks scales with system size.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, to be published in Phys. Rev. Let

Imprint of Inhomogeneous Reionization on the Power Spectrum of Galaxy Surveys at High Redshifts

We consider the effects of inhomogeneous reionization on the distribution of galaxies at high redshifts. Modulation of the formation process of the ionizing sources by large scale density modes makes reionization inhomogeneous and introduces a spread to the reionization times of different regions with the same size. After sources photo-ionize and heat these regions to a temperature \ga 10^4K at different times, their temperatures evolve as the ionized intergalactic medium (IGM) expands. The varying IGM temperature makes the minimum mass of galaxies spatially non-uniform with a fluctuation amplitude that increases towards small scales. These scale-dependent fluctuations modify the shape of the power spectrum of low-mass galaxies at high redshifts in a way that depends on the history of reionization. The resulting distortion of the primordial power spectrum is significantly larger than changes associated with uncertainties in the inflationary parameters, such as the spectral index of the scalar power spectrum or the running of the spectral index. Future surveys of high-redshift galaxies will offer a new probe of the thermal history of the IGM but might have a more limited scope in constraining inflation.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, replaced to match version accepted by Ap

Mature open cows are rarely persistently infected with bovine viral diarrhea virus

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDv) is an immunosuppressive virus affecting cattle in a multitude of ways. The varied presentation makes this disease difficult to identify in cow herds and the signs of a BVD infection may be very subtle. The syndrome causes economic problems by reducing herd fertility and increasing disease rates. The persistently infected (PI) animal is a unique reservoir for BVDv. These cattle are the result of in utero exposure to the noncytopathic biotype of BVDv prior to the development of a competent fetal immune system at about 125 days of gestation. Persistently infected animals are the primary method for the disease to propagate over time. PI cattle consistently shed BVD virus in relatively high levels and this exposure to the breeding herd can result in new PI calves. PI animals propagate BVDv in the herd and decrease pregnancy percentages compared to herds without PI animals. Farms must assess risk and manage for biosecurity when purchasing adult animals with an unknown history of disease exposure. Breeding herds that introduce new animals to the herd face the risk of importing a BVD PI animal. To mitigate this risk, PI animals must be accurately identified prior to herd introduction, but visual appraisal is not an accurate method of discovering these animals. Multiple diagnostic tests are available to determine the BVD status of incoming animals and all have an associated cost. Economic feasibility of determining the BVD PI status of animals depends to a large degree on the frequency with which PI animals occur in a population. Previous research has illustrated that PI calves entering the feedyard phase of production are fairly rare (about three per 1,000 calves); however, very little work has been done in mature animals. This project provides an estimate of BVD PI frequency for a specific population. This assessment should allow the formulation of a BVD-specific risk management plan which addresses the economic efficiency of testing mature females upon arrival. The primary objective of this research is to determine the prevalence of BVD PI animals in a population of young (3- to 6-year-old) cows purchased as non-pregnant mature animals. The results can guide biosecurity decisions for producers when purchasing and introducing this class of animal to the herd