When the Future is not what it used to be: Lessons from the Western European Experience to Forecasting Education and Training in Transition Economies

In an era of rapid technological change, information exchange, and emergence of knowledge-intensive industries it is critical to be able to identify the future skill needs of the labour market. Growing unemployment in EU member states and pre-accession countries in Eastern Europe combined with technological changes which make the skills of a significant number of workers obsolescent each year demand adequate knowledge of medium- and long-term demand for specific skills. Some EU members states have developed employment forecasting methods to identify future skill requirements which take account of the sectoral, occupational, and educational and training factors which influence supply and demand in the labour market for skills. A number of countries in Eastern Europe which are preparing to join the EU are interested in developing employment forecasting models that would provide them with similar information relating to skills. Taking account of the requirements of the Single European Market and increasing international mobility, it is desirable that the pre-accession countries should develop models which, if possible, are comparable with existing methods of forecasting training and qualification needs in existing member states of the EU. This task requires regular medium-term forecasts which will extend the time horizon of decision makers beyond the current economic cycle, be applicable to the whole economy, allow speedy adjustment to changing circumstances, and which will take account of relevant factors such as investment plans, output and labour productivity forecasts, and technological change. The objective of this paper is to provide a summary of existing methods and data sets used to forecast education and training needs in four members of the European Union, in order to motivate similar work in three pre-accession countries. We first provide a detailed account of the different approaches to forecast education and training needs in France, Germany, Ireland and The Netherlands. For each of these countries, we consider the labour market data on which employment forecasts are based and the current methods in use, examine how data reliability and accuracy of forecasts are dealt with, and discuss the dissemination and usage of forecast information generated by those systems. We then look at the same range of issues for three pre-accession Central European countries (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia.) The paper concludes by suggesting a number of needed actions in preparation for developing an approach to forecasting education and training needs in the three pre-accession countries.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39650/3/wp265.pd

When the Future is not what it used to be: Lessons from the Western European Experience to Forecasting Education and Training in Transition Economies

In an era of rapid technological change, information exchange, and emergence of knowledge-intensive industries it is critical to be able to identify the future skill needs of the labour market. Growing unemployment in EU member states and pre-accession countries in Eastern Europe combined with technological changes which make the skills of a significant number of workers obsolescent each year demand adequate knowledge of medium- and long-term demand for specific skills. Some EU members states have developed employment forecasting methods to identify future skill requirements which take account of the sectoral, occupational, and educational and training factors which influence supply and demand in the labour market for skills. A number of countries in Eastern Europe which are preparing to join the EU are interested in developing employment forecasting models that would provide them with similar information relating to skills. Taking account of the requirements of the Single European Market and increasing international mobility, it is desirable that the pre-accession countries should develop models which, if possible, are comparable with existing methods of forecasting training and qualification needs in existing member states of the EU. This task requires regular medium-term forecasts which will extend the time horizon of decision makers beyond the current economic cycle, be applicable to the whole economy, allow speedy adjustment to changing circumstances, and which will take account of relevant factors such as investment plans, output and labour productivity forecasts, and technological change. The objective of this paper is to provide a summary of existing methods and data sets used to forecast education and training needs in four members of the European Union, in order to motivate similar work in three pre-accession countries. We first provide a detailed account of the different approaches to forecast education and training needs in France, Germany, Ireland and The Netherlands. For each of these countries, we consider the labour market data on which employment forecasts are based and the current methods in use, examine how data reliability and accuracy of forecasts are dealt with, and discuss the dissemination and usage of forecast information generated by those systems. We then look at the same range of issues for three pre-accession Central European countries (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia.) The paper concludes by suggesting a number of needed actions in preparation for developing an approach to forecasting education and training needs in the three pre-accession countries.employment forecasting, education and training needs forecasting, labor market, transition

Consequences of gravitational radiation recoil

Coalescing binary black holes experience an impulsive kick due to anisotropic emission of gravitational waves. We discuss the dynamical consequences of the recoil accompanying massive black hole mergers. Recoil velocities are sufficient to eject most coalescing black holes from dwarf galaxies and globular clusters, which may explain the apparent absence of massive black holes in these systems. Ejection from giant elliptical galaxies would be rare, but coalescing black holes are displaced from the center and fall back on a time scale of order the half-mass crossing time. Displacement of the black holes transfers energy to the stars in the nucleus and can convert a steep density cusp into a core. Radiation recoil calls into question models that grow supermassive black holes from hierarchical mergers of stellar-mass precursors.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, emulateapj style; minor changes made; accepted to ApJ Letter

A framework for understanding sources of bias in medication adherence research

The sources of bias in medication adherence research have not been comprehensively explored. We aimed to identify biases expected to affect adherence research and to develop a framework for mapping these onto the phases of adherence (initiation, implementation and discontinuation). A literature search was conducted, key papers were reviewed and a Catalogue of Bias was consulted. The specific biases related to adherence measurement and metrics were mapped onto the phases of adherence using a tabular matrix. Twenty-three biases were identified, of which 11 were specifically relevant to adherence measures and metrics. The mapping framework showed differences in the numbers and types of biases associated with each measure and metric while highlighting those common to many adherence study designs (e.g., unacceptability bias and apprehension bias). The framework will inform the design of adherence studies and the development of risk of bias tools for adherence research.<br/

The theory of heating of the quantum ground state of trapped ions

Using a displacement operator formalism, I analyse the depopulation of the vibrational ground state of trapped ions. Two heating times, one characterizing short time behaviour, the other long time behaviour are found. The short time behaviour is analyzed both for single and multiple ions, and a formula for the relative heating rates of different modes is derived. The possibility of correction of heating via the quantum Zeno effect, and the exploitation of the suppression of heating of higher modes to reduce errors in quantum computation is considered.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figure

Shallow stratigraphic control on pockmark distribution in north temperate estuaries

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Marine Geology 329-331 (2012): 34-45, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2012.09.006.Pockmark fields occur throughout northern North American temperate estuaries despite the absence of extensive thermogenic hydrocarbon deposits typically associated with pockmarks. In such settings, the origins of the gas and triggering mechanism(s) responsible for pockmark formation are not obvious. Nor is it known why pockmarks proliferate in this region but do not occur south of the glacial terminus in eastern North America. This paper tests two hypotheses addressing these knowledge gaps: 1) the region's unique sea-level history provided a terrestrial deposit that sourced the gas responsible for pockmark formation; and 2) the region's physiography controls pockmarks distribution. This study integrates over 2500 km of high-resolution swath bathymetry, Chirp seismic reflection profiles and vibracore data acquired in three estuarine pockmark fields in the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy. Vibracores sampled a hydric paleosol lacking the organic-rich upper horizons, indicating that an organic-rich terrestrial deposit was eroded prior to pockmark formation. This observation suggests that the gas, which is presumably responsible for the formation of the pockmarks, originated in Holocene estuarine sediments (loss on ignition 3.5–10%), not terrestrial deposits that were subsequently drowned and buried by mud. The 7470 pockmarks identified in this study are non-randomly clustered. Pockmark size and distribution relate to Holocene sediment thickness (r2 = 0.60), basin morphology and glacial deposits. The irregular underlying topography that dictates Holocene sediment thickness may ultimately play a more important role in temperate estuarine pockmark distribution than drowned terrestrial deposits. These results give insight into the conditions necessary for pockmark formation in nearshore coastal environments.Graduate support for Brothers came from a Maine Economic Improvement Fund Dissertation Fellowship

Effect of N2, Ne and Ar seeding on Alcator C-Mod H-mode confinement

The mitigation of divertor heat fluxes is an active topic of investigation on existing tokamaks. One approach uses radiation, both inside and outside the last closed flux surface (LCFS), to convert plasma thermal energy, usually directed towards dedicated plasma facing components, to soft X-ray and ultraviolet radiation, spread over a much larger surface area. Recent enhanced D-α H-mode experiments on Alcator C-Mod varied the ICRF input power and radiative power losses via impurity seeding to demonstrate that normalized energy confinement depends strongly on the difference between input power and the radiated power inside the LCFS. These investigations also show that when seeded with either Ne or N2, a factor of two and higher reduction in outer divertor heat flux is achieved while maintaining H[subscript 98,y2] ∼ 1.0. Conversely, when seeding with Ar, confinement is limited to H[subscript 98,y2] ∼ 0.8 for a similar level of exhaust power.United States. Dept. of Energy (DOE Contract Number DEFC0299ER54512

The HST Key Project on the Extragalactic Distance Scale. XXII. The Discovery of Cepheids in NGC 1326-A

We report on the detection of Cepheids and the first distance measurement to the spiral galaxy NGC 1326-A, a member of the Fornax cluster of galaxies. We have employed data obtained with the Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2 on board the Hubble Space Telescope. Over a 49 day interval, a total of twelve V-band (F555W) and eight I-band (F814W) epochs of observation were obtained. Two photometric reduction packages, ALLFRAME and DoPHOT, have been employed to obtain photometry measures from the three Wide Field CCDs. Variability analysis yields a total of 17 Cepheids in common with both photometry datasets, with periods ranging between 10 and 50 days. Of these 14 Cepheids with high-quality lightcurves are used to fit the V and I period-luminosity relations and derive apparent distance moduli, assuming a Large Magellanic Cloud distance modulus (m-M) (LMC) = 18.50 +- 0.10 mag and color excess E(B-V) = 0.10 mag. Assuming A(V)/E(V-I) = 2.45, the DoPHOT data yield a true distance modulus to NGC 1326-A of (m-M)_0 = 31.36 +- 0.17 (random) +- 0.13 (systematic) mag, corresponding to a distance of 18.7 \pm 1.5 (random) \pm 1.2 (systematic) Mpc. The derived distance to NGC 1326-A is in good agreement with the distance derived previously to NGC 1365, another spiral galaxy member of the Fornax cluster. However the distances to both galaxies are significantly lower than to NGC 1425, a third Cepheid calibrator in the outer parts of the cluster.Comment: 33 pages A gzipped tar file containing 12 figures can be obtained from http://www.ipac.caltech.edu/H0kp/n1326a/n1326a.htm

A Database of Cepheid Distance Moduli and TRGB, GCLF, PNLF and SBF Data Useful for Distance Determinations

We present a compilation of Cepheid distance moduli and data for four secondary distance indicators that employ stars in the old stellar populations: the planetary nebula luminosity function (PNLF), the globular cluster luminosity function (GCLF), the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB), and the surface brightness fluctuation (SBF) method. The database includes all data published as of July 15, 1999. The main strength of this compilation resides in all data being on a consistent and homogeneous system: all Cepheid distances are derived using the same calibration of the period-luminosity relation, the treatment of errors is consistent for all indicators, measurements which are not considered reliable are excluded. As such, the database is ideal for inter-comparing any of the distance indicators considered, or for deriving a Cepheid calibration to any secondary distance indicator. Specifically, the database includes: 1) Cepheid distances, extinctions and metallicities; 2) apparent magnitudes of the PNLF cutoff; 3) apparent magnitudes and colors of the turnover of the GCLF (both in the V- and B-bands); 4) apparent magnitudes of the TRGB (in the I-band) and V-I colors at and 0.5 magnitudes fainter than the TRGB; 5) apparent surface brightness fluctuation magnitudes I, K', K_short, and using the F814W filter with the HST/WFPC2. In addition, for every galaxy in the database we give reddening estimates from DIRBE/IRAS as well as HI maps, J2000 coordinates, Hubble and T-type morphological classification, apparent total magnitude in B, and systemic velocity. (Abridged)Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. Because of space limitations, the figures included are low resolution bitmap images. Original figures can be found at http://www.astro.ucla.edu/~laura/pub.ht