A Universal Model of Global Civil Unrest

Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of universal patterns of behavior. In contrast, the possibility that civil unrest activities, across countries and over long time periods, are governed by universal mechanisms has not been explored. Here, we analyze records of civil unrest of 170 countries during the period 1919-2008. We demonstrate that the distributions of the number of unrest events per year are robustly reproduced by a nonlinear, spatially extended dynamical model, which reflects the spread of civil disorder between geographic regions connected through social and communication networks. The results also expose the similarity between global social instability and the dynamics of natural hazards and epidemics.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure

Rapidly Decaying Supernova 2010X: A Candidate ".Ia" Explosion

We present the discovery, photometric and spectroscopic follow-up observations of SN 2010X (PTF 10bhp). This supernova decays exponentially with tau_d=5 days, and rivals the current recordholder in speed, SN 2002bj. SN 2010X peaks at M_r=-17mag and has mean velocities of 10,000 km/s. Our light curve modeling suggests a radioactivity powered event and an ejecta mass of 0.16 Msun. If powered by Nickel, we show that the Nickel mass must be very small (0.02 Msun) and that the supernova quickly becomes optically thin to gamma-rays. Our spectral modeling suggests that SN 2010X and SN 2002bj have similar chemical compositions and that one of Aluminum or Helium is present. If Aluminum is present, we speculate that this may be an accretion induced collapse of an O-Ne-Mg white dwarf. If Helium is present, all observables of SN 2010X are consistent with being a thermonuclear Helium shell detonation on a white dwarf, a ".Ia" explosion. With the 1-day dynamic-cadence experiment on the Palomar Transient Factory, we expect to annually discover a few such events.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures; Minor Changes; Note correction in Fig 4 caption; published by ApJ

Weak pairwise correlations imply strongly correlated network states in a neural population

Biological networks have so many possible states that exhaustive sampling is impossible. Successful analysis thus depends on simplifying hypotheses, but experiments on many systems hint that complicated, higher order interactions among large groups of elements play an important role. In the vertebrate retina, we show that weak correlations between pairs of neurons coexist with strongly collective behavior in the responses of ten or more neurons. Surprisingly, we find that this collective behavior is described quantitatively by models that capture the observed pairwise correlations but assume no higher order interactions. These maximum entropy models are equivalent to Ising models, and predict that larger networks are completely dominated by correlation effects. This suggests that the neural code has associative or error-correcting properties, and we provide preliminary evidence for such behavior. As a first test for the generality of these ideas, we show that similar results are obtained from networks of cultured cortical neurons.Comment: Full account of work presented at the conference on Computational and Systems Neuroscience (COSYNE), 17-20 March 2005, in Salt Lake City, Utah (http://cosyne.org

Prevalence of Disorders Recorded in Dogs Attending Primary-Care Veterinary Practices in England

Purebred dog health is thought to be compromised by an increasing occurence of inherited diseases but inadequate prevalence data on common disorders have hampered efforts to prioritise health reforms. Analysis of primary veterinary practice clinical data has been proposed for reliable estimation of disorder prevalence in dogs. Electronic patient record (EPR) data were collected on 148,741 dogs attending 93 clinics across central and south-eastern England. Analysis in detail of a random sample of EPRs relating to 3,884 dogs from 89 clinics identified the most frequently recorded disorders as otitis externa (prevalence 10.2%, 95% CI: 9.1-11.3), periodontal disease (9.3%, 95% CI: 8.3-10.3) and anal sac impaction (7.1%, 95% CI: 6.1-8.1). Using syndromic classification, the most prevalent body location affected was the head-and-neck (32.8%, 95% CI: 30.7-34.9), the most prevalent organ system affected was the integument (36.3%, 95% CI: 33.9-38.6) and the most prevalent pathophysiologic process diagnosed was inflammation (32.1%, 95% CI: 29.8-34.3). Among the twenty most-frequently recorded disorders, purebred dogs had a significantly higher prevalence compared with crossbreds for three: otitis externa (P = 0.001), obesity (P = 0.006) and skin mass lesion (P = 0.033), and popular breeds differed significantly from each other in their prevalence for five: periodontal disease (P = 0.002), overgrown nails (P = 0.004), degenerative joint disease (P = 0.005), obesity (P = 0.001) and lipoma (P = 0.003). These results fill a crucial data gap in disorder prevalence information and assist with disorder prioritisation. The results suggest that, for maximal impact, breeding reforms should target commonly-diagnosed complex disorders that are amenable to genetic improvement and should place special focus on at-risk breeds. Future studies evaluating disorder severity and duration will augment the usefulness of the disorder prevalence information reported herein

Gene Expression Patterns of Oxidative Phosphorylation Complex I Subunits Are Organized in Clusters

After the radiation of eukaryotes, the NUO operon, controlling the transcription of the NADH dehydrogenase complex of the oxidative phosphorylation system (OXPHOS complex I), was broken down and genes encoding this protein complex were dispersed across the nuclear genome. Seven genes, however, were retained in the genome of the mitochondrion, the ancient symbiote of eukaryotes. This division, in combination with the three-fold increase in subunit number from bacteria (N = ∼14) to man (N = 45), renders the transcription regulation of OXPHOS complex I a challenge. Recently bioinformatics analysis of the promoter regions of all OXPHOS genes in mammals supported patterns of co-regulation, suggesting that natural selection favored a mechanism facilitating the transcriptional regulatory control of genes encoding subunits of these large protein complexes. Here, using real time PCR of mitochondrial (mtDNA)- and nuclear DNA (nDNA)-encoded transcripts in a panel of 13 different human tissues, we show that the expression pattern of OXPHOS complex I genes is regulated in several clusters. Firstly, all mtDNA-encoded complex I subunits (N = 7) share a similar expression pattern, distinct from all tested nDNA-encoded subunits (N = 10). Secondly, two sub-clusters of nDNA-encoded transcripts with significantly different expression patterns were observed. Thirdly, the expression patterns of two nDNA-encoded genes, NDUFA4 and NDUFA5, notably diverged from the rest of the nDNA-encoded subunits, suggesting a certain degree of tissue specificity. Finally, the expression pattern of the mtDNA-encoded ND4L gene diverged from the rest of the tested mtDNA-encoded transcripts that are regulated by the same promoter, consistent with post-transcriptional regulation. These findings suggest, for the first time, that the regulation of complex I subunits expression in humans is complex rather than reflecting global co-regulation

Come for the looks, stay for the personality? A mixed methods investigation of reacquisition and owner recommendation of Bulldogs, French Bulldogs and Pugs

Brachycephalic breeds are proliferating internationally, with dramatic rises in popularity juxtaposed with common and severe breed-related health problems. Physical appearance is as a dominant factor attracting owners to brachycephalic breeds; however, whether these owners will choose their current breed for future ownership and develop 'breed-loyalty' in the face of health problems is not yet known. The aims of this study were (1) to quantify levels of, and explore factors associated with, brachycephalic dog owners' intentions to: (i) reacquire and/or (ii) recommend their current breed to potential first-time dog owners, and (2) to use qualitative methods to explore why brachycephalic dog owners would or would not recommend their current breed. This large mixed methods study reports on 2168 owners of brachycephalic breeds (Pugs: n = 789; French Bulldog: n = 741; Bulldogs: n = 638). Owners were highly likely to want to own their breed again in the future (93.0%) and recommend their breed to other owners (65.5%). Statistical modelling identified that first-time ownership and increased strength of the dog-owner relationship increased the likelihood of reacquisi-tion and/or recommendation. In contrast, an increased number of health problems, positive perception of their dog's health compared with the rest of their breed, and dog behaviour being worse than expected decreased the likelihood of reacquisition and/or recommendation. Thematic analyses constructed three themes describing why owners recommend their breed: positive behavioural attributes for a companion dog, breed suited to a sedentary lifestyle with limited space, and suitability for households with children. Five themes described why owners recommended against their breed: high prevalence of health problems, expense of ownership, ethical and welfare issues associated with breeding brachycephalic dogs, negative effects upon owner lifestyle and negative behavioural attributes. Understanding how breed-loyalty develops, and whether it can be attenuated, will be key to controlling the current population boom in brachycephalic breeds in the long-term

Contrasting impacts of heat stress on violent and nonviolent robbery in Beijing, China

Previous studies investigating the relation between heat stress and crime incidents often focus on violent crimes. In this study, the impacts of heat stress on two types of robbery (violent and nonviolent) in China are compared using crime statistics collected in Beijing and heat stress indices that consider the combined effects of temperature and humidity. The results indicate that the abrupt change in the trend of robbery rates is affected by the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. The nonviolent robbery rates have a more pronounced seasonality and are better correlated with heat stress at daily scales, especially during the period from 2009 to 2014 when no trend exists. The results also demonstrate that both violent and nonviolent robbery rates significantly increase with heat stress in spring. The nonviolent robbery rates also significantly increase with heat stress in summer. The influence of heat stress on violent robbery rate is more complicated and nonlinear

Reproducibility of exhaled nitric oxide in smokers and non-smokers: relevance for longitudinal studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Currently, there is much interest in measuring fractional exhaled nitric oxide (<b>FE_NO</b>) in populations. We evaluated the reproducibility of <b>FE_NO</b>in healthy subjects and determined the number of subjects necessary to carry out a longitudinal survey of <b>FE_NO</b>in a population containing smokers and non-smokers, based on the assessed reproducibility.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The reproducibility of <b>FE_NO</b>was examined in 18 healthy smokers and 21 non-smokers. <b>FE_NO</b>was assessed once at 9 AM on five consecutive days; in the last day this measurement was repeated at 2 PM. Respiratory symptoms and medical history were assessed by questionnaire. The within- and between-session repeatability of <b>FE_NO</b>and log-transformed <b>FE_NO</b>was described. The power of a longitudinal study based on a relative increase in <b>FE_NO</b>was estimated using a bilateral t-test of the log-transformed <b>FE_NO</b>using the between-session variance of the assay.</p> <p>Results</p> <p><b>FE_NO</b>measurements were highly reproducible throughout the study. <b>FE_NO</b>was significantly higher in males than females regardless of smoking status. <b>FE_NO</b>was positively associated with height (p < 0.001), gender (p < 0.034), smoking (p < 0.0001) and percent FEV₁/FVC (p < 0.001) but not with age (p = 0.987). The between-session standard deviation was roughly constant on the log scale. Assuming the between-session standard deviation is equal to its longitudinal equivalent, either 111 or 29 subjects would be necessary to achieve an 80% power in detecting a 3% or a 10% increase in <b>FE_NO</b>respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The good reproducibility of <b>FE_NO</b>is not influenced by gender or smoking habits. In a well controlled, longitudinal study it should allow detecting even small increases in <b>FE_NO</b>with a reasonable population size.</p

Single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) of anxiety disorders before and after treatment with citalopram

BACKGROUND: Several studies have now examined the effects of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) treatment on brain function in a variety of anxiety disorders including obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and social anxiety disorder (social phobia) (SAD). Regional changes in cerebral perfusion following SSRI treatment have been shown for all three disorders. The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) (OCD), caudate (OCD), medial pre-frontal/cingulate (OCD, SAD, PTSD), temporal (OCD, SAD, PTSD) and, thalamic regions (OCD, SAD) are some of those implicated. Some data also suggests that higher perfusion pre-treatment in the anterior cingulate (PTSD), OFC, caudate (OCD) and antero-lateral temporal region (SAD) predicts subsequent treatment response. This paper further examines the notion of overlap in the neurocircuitry of treatment and indeed treatment response across anxiety disorders with SSRI treatment. METHODS: Single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) using Tc-(99 m )HMPAO to assess brain perfusion was performed on subjects with OCD, PTSD, and SAD before and after 8 weeks (SAD) and 12 weeks (OCD and PTSD) treatment with the SSRI citalopram. Statistical parametric mapping (SPM) was used to compare scans (pre- vs post-medication, and responders vs non-responders) in the combined group of subjects. RESULTS: Citalopram treatment resulted in significant deactivation (p = 0.001) for the entire group in the superior (t = 4.78) and anterior (t = 4.04) cingulate, right thalamus (t = 4.66) and left hippocampus (t = 3.96). Deactivation (p = 0.001) within the left precentral (t = 4.26), right mid-frontal (t = 4.03), right inferior frontal (t = 3.99), left prefrontal (3.81) and right precuneus (t= 3.85) was more marked in treatment responders. No pattern of baseline activation distinguished responders from non-responders to subsequent pharmacotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Although each of the anxiety disorders may be mediated by different neurocircuits, there is some overlap in the functional neuro-anatomy of their response to SSRI treatment. The current data are consistent with previous work demonstrating the importance of limbic circuits in this spectrum of disorders. These play a crucial role in cognitive-affective processing, are innervated by serotonergic neurons, and changes in their activity during serotonergic pharmacotherapy seem crucial

Selection of Resistant Bacteria at Very Low Antibiotic Concentrations

The widespread use of antibiotics is selecting for a variety of resistance mechanisms that seriously challenge our ability to treat bacterial infections. Resistant bacteria can be selected at the high concentrations of antibiotics used therapeutically, but what role the much lower antibiotic concentrations present in many environments plays in selection remains largely unclear. Here we show using highly sensitive competition experiments that selection of resistant bacteria occurs at extremely low antibiotic concentrations. Thus, for three clinically important antibiotics, drug concentrations up to several hundred-fold below the minimal inhibitory concentration of susceptible bacteria could enrich for resistant bacteria, even when present at a very low initial fraction. We also show that de novo mutants can be selected at sub-MIC concentrations of antibiotics, and we provide a mathematical model predicting how rapidly such mutants would take over in a susceptible population. These results add another dimension to the evolution of resistance and suggest that the low antibiotic concentrations found in many natural environments are important for enrichment and maintenance of resistance in bacterial populations