Using Conformal Win Probability to Predict the Winners of the Cancelled 2020 NCAA Basketball Tournaments

The COVID-19 pandemic was responsible for the cancellation of both the men's and women's 2020 National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division 1 basketball tournaments. Starting from the point at which the Division 1 tournaments and any unfinished conference tournaments were cancelled, we deliver closed-form probabilities for each team of making the Division 1 tournaments, had they not been cancelled, aided by use of conformal predictive distributions. We also deliver probabilities of a team winning March Madness, given a tournament bracket. We then compare single-game win probabilities generated with conformal predictive distributions, aptly named conformal win probabilities, to those generated through linear and logistic regression on seven years of historical college basketball data, specifically from the 2014-2015 season through the 2020-2021 season. Conformal win probabilities are shown to be better calibrated than other methods, resulting in more accurate win probability estimates, while requiring fewer distributional assumptions.Comment: preprint submitted to Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 28 pages without figures; figures included at end of documen

Physiological and training characteristics of recreational marathon runners

Purpose: The aim of this study was to examine the physical and training characteristics of recreational marathon runners within finish time bandings (2.5–3 h, 3–3.5 h, 3.5–4 h, 4–4.5 h and >4.5 h). Materials and methods: A total of 97 recreational marathon runners (age 42.4 ± 9.9 years; mass 69.2 ± 11.3 kg; stature 172.8 ± 9.1 cm), with a marathon finish time of 229.1 ± 48.7 min, of whom n = 34 were female and n = 63 were male, completed an incremental treadmill test for the determination of lactate threshold (LT1), lactate turn point (LT2) and running economy (RE). Following a 7-min recovery, they completed a test to volitional exhaustion starting at LT2 for the assessment of VO2max. In addition, all participants completed a questionnaire gathering information on their current training regimes exploring weekly distances, training frequencies, types of sessions, longest run in a week, with estimations of training speed, and load and volume derived from these data. Results: Training frequency was shown to be significantly greater for the 2.5–3 h group compared to the 3.5–4 h runners (P 4.5 h group (P = 0.004), while distance per session (km⋅session–1) was significantly greater for the 2.5–3 h group (16.1 ± 4.2) compared to the 3.5–4 h group (15.5 ± 5.2; P = 0.01) and >4.5 h group (10.3 ± 2.6; P = 0.001). Race speed correlated with LT1 (r = 0.791), LT2 (r = 0.721) and distance per session (r = 0.563). Conclusion: The data highlight profound differences for key components of marathon running (VO2max, LT1, LT2, RE and % VO2max) within a group of recreational runners with the discriminating training variables being training frequency and the absolute training speed

Strategies for Enhancing Communication Between Students, Academics and Researchers Participating in Large-Scale Undergraduate Research Projects

Spreading the word about science and inspiring people to connect with the processes and outcomes of science, whether as researchers, educators, students, industry professionals or consumers, is essential in forging stronger links among scientists and with the communities that stand to benefit from their work. How do we nurture inspirational scientific communication in the context of university undergraduate science education, particularly in large cohort settings that are often more mind-numbing than soul-stirring? Communicating your own discoveries effectively is the zenith of scientific endeavour. We have developed a large-scale original research experience for second or third year undergraduate biomedical science students. The students undertake ‘mini’ projects and present their research outcomes verbally, visually and in a written format suitable for journal publication. This helps students understand how science works and develops their ability to explain scientific concepts to their peers and others. To promote ‘original research’ to students in ways that inspire and motivate participation, we have also evolved strategies to help instructors and researchers communicate successfully with large student cohorts, including a wiki for secure data storage, FAQ sheets and databases of bioinformatics tools. Introduction of the research experience has improved survey scores overall and on items relating to communication. These strategies are applicable to any course seeking to introduce students to the practice of research and communication of research outcomes. Our experience suggests optimal multidimensional communication may be best achieved through instructors, researchers and students working together to develop effective stratagems for surviving and thriving in the information-dense, digital world

Accelerometery and Heart Rate Responses of Professional Fast-Medium Bowlers in One-Day and Multi-Day Cricket

The physical demands of fast-medium bowling are increasingly being recognised, yet comparative exploration of the differing demands between competitive formats (i.e. one-day [OD] versus multi-day [MD] matches) remain minimal. The aim of this study was to describe in-match physiological profiles of professional fast-medium bowlers from England across different versions of competitive matches using a multivariable wearable monitoring device. Seven professional cricket fast-medium bowlers wore the BioharnessTM monitoring device during matches, over three sea-sons (>80 hours in-match). Heart Rate (HR) and Acceleromety (ACC) was compared across match types (OD, MD) and differ-ent in-match activity states (Bowling, Between over bowling, Fielding). Peak acceleration during OD bowling was significantly higher in comparison to MD cricket ([OD vs. MD] 234.1 ± 57.9 vs 226.6 ± 32.9 ct·episode-1, p < 0.05, ES = 0.11-0.30). Data for ACC were also higher during OD than MD fielding activities (p < 0.01, ES = 0.11-.30). OD bowling stimulated higher mean HR responses (143 ± 14 vs 137 ± 16 beats·min-1, p < 0.05, ES = 0.21) when compared to MD matches. This increase in OD crick-et was evident for both between over (129 ± 9 vs 120 ± 13 beats·min-1,p < 0.01, ES = 0.11-0.50) and during fielding (115 ± 12 vs 106 ± 12 beats·min-1, p < 0.01, ES = 0.36) activity. The increased HR and ACC evident in OD matches suggest greater acute physical loads than MD formats. Therefore, use of wearable technology and the findings provided give a valuable appreciation of the differences in match loads, and thus required physiological preparation and recovery in fast-medium bowlers

The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment: Exploring Fundamental Symmetries of the Universe

The preponderance of matter over antimatter in the early Universe, the dynamics of the supernova bursts that produced the heavy elements necessary for life and whether protons eventually decay --- these mysteries at the forefront of particle physics and astrophysics are key to understanding the early evolution of our Universe, its current state and its eventual fate. The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment (LBNE) represents an extensively developed plan for a world-class experiment dedicated to addressing these questions. LBNE is conceived around three central components: (1) a new, high-intensity neutrino source generated from a megawatt-class proton accelerator at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, (2) a near neutrino detector just downstream of the source, and (3) a massive liquid argon time-projection chamber deployed as a far detector deep underground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. This facility, located at the site of the former Homestake Mine in Lead, South Dakota, is approximately 1,300 km from the neutrino source at Fermilab -- a distance (baseline) that delivers optimal sensitivity to neutrino charge-parity symmetry violation and mass ordering effects. This ambitious yet cost-effective design incorporates scalability and flexibility and can accommodate a variety of upgrades and contributions. With its exceptional combination of experimental configuration, technical capabilities, and potential for transformative discoveries, LBNE promises to be a vital facility for the field of particle physics worldwide, providing physicists from around the globe with opportunities to collaborate in a twenty to thirty year program of exciting science. In this document we provide a comprehensive overview of LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the landscape of neutrino physics worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate and the capabilities it will possess.Comment: Major update of previous version. This is the reference document for LBNE science program and current status. Chapters 1, 3, and 9 provide a comprehensive overview of LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the landscape of neutrino physics worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate and the capabilities it will possess. 288 pages, 116 figure

Centennial climate variability in the British Isles during the mid-late Holocene

Reproduced with permission of the publisher. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier LtdMulti-millennial climate changes were relatively minor over the mid–late Holocene in the British Isles, because orbitally forced insolation changes were smaller than those at higher latitudes. Centennial climate variability is thus likely to have exerted a greater influence on the environment and human society of the region. Proxy-climate records from the British Isles covering the last 4500 years are assembled and re-evaluated with the aim of identifying centennial climate variability reflected by multi-proxy indicators. The proxies include bog oak populations, peatland surface wetness, flooding episodes from fluvial deposits, speleothem annual band width and oxygen isotopes, chironomids from lake sediments and sand and dune deposition. Most proxies reflect water balance rather than temperature alone, and records predominantly reflect warm season climate. A series of 12 key periods of enhanced precipitation–evaporation (P-E) are identified by their presence in two or more proxy records. Variability in P-E is much greater than that shown by temperature proxies and there is no necessary association between warm/cool and dry/wet periods. Although the data for temperature are less robust than those for P-E, a series of key temperature changes are proposed based on speleothem δ18O and chironomid inferred July temperature records; relatively cool before c. 3100 years BP, warmer (3100–2000 years BP), cool (2000–1250 cal years BP), warm (1250–650 cal years BP), and cool (650 cal years BP onwards). Some key increases in P-E (2750, 1650, 550 cal years BP) show a strong correspondence with ‘Bond cycles’ in ocean proxy records for increased ice rafted debris, decreased summer sea surface temperatures and sometimes decreased North Atlantic deep water circulation. Other higher frequency changes in P-E are also strongly related to SST variability. Whilst some of the main changes to cooler SSTs and increased P-E are approximately coincident with reduced solar output, most are not and thus must be the result of the internal dynamics of the ocean and atmosphere. Future work should concentrate on firmly establishing the pattern of temperature change, improving chronological accuracy and precision in existing records and improving process-based understanding of proxies

Optimizing care in osteoporosis: The Canadian quality circle project

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>While the Osteoporosis Canada 2002 Canadian guidelines provided evidence based strategies in preventing, diagnosing, and managing this condition, publication and distribution of guidelines have not, in and of themselves, been shown to alter physicians clinical approaches. We hypothesize that primary care physicians enrolled in the Quality Circle project would change their patient management of osteoporosis in terms of awareness of osteoporosis risk factors and bone mineral density testing in accordance with the guidelines.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The project consisted of five Quality Circle phases that included: 1) Training & Baseline Data Collection, 2) First Educational Intervention & First Follow-Up Data Collection 3) First Strategy Implementation Session, 4) Final Educational Intervention & Final Follow-up Data Collection, and 5) Final Strategy Implementation Session. A total of 340 circle members formed 34 quality circles and participated in the study. The generalized estimating equations approach was used to model physician awareness of risk factors for osteoporosis and appropriate utilization of bone mineral density testing pre and post educational intervention (first year of the study). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After the 1^styear of the study, physicians' certainty of their patients' risk factor status increased. Certainty varied from an OR of 1.4 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.8) for prior vertebral fracture status to 6.3 (95% CI: 2.3, 17.9) for prior hip fracture status. Furthermore, bone mineral density testing increased in high risk as compared with low risk patients (OR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.2, 1.7).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Quality Circle methodology was successful in increasing both physicians' awareness of osteoporosis risk factors and appropriate bone mineral density testing in accordance with the 2002 Canadian guidelines.</p